Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 210114
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
214 PM SST FRI JAN 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GFS SOLUTIONS HAS POORLY HANDLED
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST
OVER THE REGION. CLEARLY...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ABOVE THE AREA HAS
BLOCKED THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...TO WHICH
EXPLAINS THE LACK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. THOUGH GFS/PRECIP MODELS HINTS AT BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...BUT WILL KEEP THE SHOWER COVERAGE
AT A MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE HANGS TO THE NORTH OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS STILL DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
WHAT TO EXPECT DURING LONG-TERM...EXCEPT TO PLACE TWO SEPARATE
TROUGHS NEAR THE AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE RELATIVELY DRY HUMIDITY TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH SSW OF TUTUILA
WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE SHOWER
COVERAGE AT ISOLATED WORDING AS WE KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FUTURE MODELS.
THUS...ANTICIPATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 10 KT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...SEA HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG PERIODS OF 13 TO 15 SEC FROM THE NW WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY WHILE
AN ONSET OF SW SWELLS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT WILL ENTER THE AREA DURING
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SW SWELL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR
THIS SITUATION AND PROVIDE UPDATES IN THE FUTURE.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

CB






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