Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 230111
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
211 PM SST MON MAY 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
TRAILING TROUGH TO THE WEST ATTACHED TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR FIJI IS MOVING EAST SLOWLY. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A THICK LAYER OF SHOWERY CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION BY AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT DIMINISHES. WITH THE TROUGH
COUPLED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN...GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL PREVAIL BY
MIDWEEK...AND WILL LIKELY TURN NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MIGRATION...A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO PREVAIL
AND MINIMAL SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVE WATCH III MODELS SUGGEST COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET WILL
REACH SHORES BY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AUNU`U BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUPPORTS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF AN UPWARD
TREND IN SEAS THROUGHOUT THE MIDWEEK. WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR
SMALL CRAFTS AND HIGH SURFS UNTIL FRIDAY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...

&&

$$

JT/ELM





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