Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 271935
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
535 AM CHST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA WATERS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING TINIAN AND
SAIPAN WATERS. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS SOME DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF
THE MARIANAS FROM 148E TO ABOUT 152E...APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EAST-WEST TROUGH. SEAS ARE ONLY RUNNING AROUND 3 FEET AT THE
IPAN BUOY...AND WINDS ARE MAINLY GENTLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE AS WELL AS ON THE LATEST GFS. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY AFTERNOON...AND A DECREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY SATURDAY. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO WINDS...BUT THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST WILL NEED WATCHING
AS IT MAY AFFECT GUAM/ROTA WINDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
REFRESHED WAVE AND SWELL GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER SEAS
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...UP TO 4-6 FT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN. OTHERWISE...LITLE CHANGE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST MODEL RUN STRAYS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW INDICATES AN
OVERALL UNSTABLE PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN
MICRONESIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVER MAJURO THROUGH TODAY AS A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE
THE MARSHALLS. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY USHERING IN DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN. KOSRAE LOOKS TO
BE THE DRIEST FORECAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE...KEEPING MOST OF THE SHOWERS SPLIT
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT POHNPEI
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE
AS THEY APPROACH CHUUK TONIGHT...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WENO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LONGER TERM FORECAST...BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND...IS WHERE THE
MODELS DIVERGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. CHOSE TO MAINTAIN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN EASTERN MICRONESIA.

A WEAK WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH YAP AND KOROR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A DRY STABLE PATTERN REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS RAINFALL
TOTALS OF LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES AT KOROR THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWS LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. AS THESE DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR PALAU...A DROUGHT STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. YAP MAY ALSO BE MOVING INTO DROUGHT CONDITIONS THOUGH
THE MODELS DO DIFFER ON RAINFALL FOR THE STATE. THE ECMWF SHOWS
LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES FOR YAP THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. BOTH LOCATIONS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/KLEESCHULTE



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