Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 020605 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADD MICRONESIA DISCUSSIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
405 PM CHST THU OCT 2 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TY PHANFONE HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS...BUT
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION. OUT TO THE EAST...A LARGE DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWN ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR ACROSS THE MARIANAS WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXISTING GRIDS...AS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK GOOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN
MOIST MONSOON FLOW. GFS STILL BRINGS THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE OUT
ON A WNW TO NW TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT NORTH OF SAIPAN ON
MONDAY...WHILE LAST NIGHT`S ECMWF TAKES IT THROUGH THE ROTA CHANNEL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MARIANAS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY
REMAINS GENERIC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS...PENDING A BETTER IDEA OF WHAT THE
DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE WILL END UP DOING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LEFT MARINE GRIDS AS IS...KEEPING HAZARDOUS SURF IN THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SEAS BEYOND SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF OUR DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
INVEST AREA 90W NEAR 6N163E IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT AND WILL BE OUR MAIN NEAR-TERM FORECAST PROBLEM.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KOSRAE...POHNPEI
AND CHUUK. SATELLITE SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED
BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE 90W WILL DRIFT TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE A TROUGHING
PATTERN ALONG WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS
OF EASTERN MICRONESIA. THE GFS INDICATES YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE MARSHALL ISLANDS BY WEEKEND. SO THE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THIS WHOLE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
FOR CHUUK...INVEST AREA 90W NEAR 6N163E IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
AFFECTS TO CHUUK STATE. INVEST 90W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ABOUT 90W HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR CHUUK...ALONG WITH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT CHUUK INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR PALAU AND YAP...THE WET MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE NEXT WEEK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT WINDS STILL SPREAD ACROSS PALAU AND
YAP STATE AND MODELS KEEP THESE WINDS IN PLACE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT...THE MONSOON SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS SURF
OF 8 TO 10 FEET ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS. WAVE MODEL SHOWS
THIS SWELL SUBSIDING BY THE WEEKEND...BUT IT WILL HOVER AT OR NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BUILDING NORTH SWELL ARRIVING
SUNDAY OR MONDAY FROM DISTANT TYPHOON PHANFONE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SATURDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/SIMPSON








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