Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 280756 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
556 PM CHST SUN DEC 28 2014

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIA DISCUSSION

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
MARIANAS THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE WEST ALLOWING FOR
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND. TO THE EAST ARE SHALLOW TRADE-WIND CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR THIS WEEK A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN WILL RESUME WITH
ONLY A FEW PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE MARIANAS AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. FOR
NOW...SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AS MODELS SHOW ONLY
A MINOR INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCAL BUOYS AND ALTIMETRY DATA SHOW SEAS LEVELING OFF BETWEEN 6 AND
7 FEET. COMBINED SEAS WILL INCREASE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRYNESS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE CHUUK AND POHNPEI THRU MIDWEEK...KOSRAE AND MAJURO UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF 5N
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS NEAR KOSRAE TONIGHT. LATEST
ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A TRADE DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE DATE
LINE NEAR 170W...AND ALSO A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 4N AND 7N
STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO BEYOND 150W. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IT SHOULD REACH MAJURO AND KOSRAE NEAR WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY POHNPEI
AND CHUUK AFTER MIDWEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER TRADE
SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 35N175W
APPROACHING THE MARSHALL ISLANDS NEAR THE WEEKEND. THESE FEATURES
SHOULD DISPLACE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
FARTHER SOUTH OF 6N AND ALLOW THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO STAY
SOUTH OF MAJURO. FOR KOSRAE...THIS CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY IMPACT
THE ISLAND THRU FRIDAY.

LARGE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL KEEP SEA HEIGHTS NEAR 10 FEET
FROM CHUUK STATE EASTWARD TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT OPERATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SWELL WILL
ALSO PROLONG THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR KOSRAE THRU WEDNESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED UNDER THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA SECTION ABOVE AS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SIMILAR.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF MINDANAO NEAR
8N128E. AIDED BY DIVERGENT FLOW SOUTHWEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH AT
15N153E...CONVERGING WINDS EAST OF 23W ARE TRIGGERING SPORADIC
CONVECTION NEAR KOROR AND YAP THIS EVENING. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST
NEAR YAP UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND KOROR THRU MONDAY
MORNING. AS 23W DRIFTS FARTHER WESTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON...A SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE EAST IS GOING TO BRING IN MORE STABLE WEATHER FOR BOTH
LOCALES. BY MIDWEEK...A TRADE-WIND PATTERN WILL SET IN AND A TRADE
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM NEAR 10N160E COULD PASS NEAR YAP AND
KOROR AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

W. AYDLETT/CHAN








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