Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 172041
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
535 AM ChST Thu Jan 18 2018

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite and radar show dry conditions and only a few low-level
clouds across the Marianas .

&&

.Discussion...
Little change is expected over the next week as models continue to
point to a dry trade-wind pattern over the Marianas. A large high
pressure system moving off of Japan into the north Pacific early next
week will cause trade winds to increase across the Marianas.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Stronger winds may warrant the consideration of a fire weather watch
for Guam this weekend. The concern would be for conditions conducive
to fast-spreading wildfires that are difficult to control. Worth
noting, the airport has recorded only .38 inches of rain so far in
January. This dry season is leaving its mark on the fire danger as
the Keetch-Byrum Drought Index, now in the extreme category, sits at
657.

&&

.Marine...
Overnight, buoys showed a quick rise in north swell, particularly at
the Tanapag buoy in Saipan. Ritidian indicated a rise but seas stayed
just shy of 10 ft there. Tanapag buoy has decreased slightly but has
hovered at or just above 10 ft this morning. Have maintained the
small craft advisory for today at Tinian and Saipan, but expect seas
to fall below 10 ft by this evening. The decreasing north swell is
still capable of producing hazardous surf along north facing reefs
for today. North swell will continue to decrease today such that surf
will fall below hazardous levels on north facing reefs. The risk of
rip currents will be high today, but fall to moderate tonight.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Weather is fairly quiet across eastern Micronesia this morning,
featuring a weak trade-wind disturbance near Pohnpei and a narrow
east-west band of showers associated with low-level convergence from
east of Majuro to the Date Line. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
at times through Saturday at Pohnpei in intermittent low-level
convergence, and at Majuro as the band of showers moves across from
the east. Isolated thunder is also expected at Kosrae Saturday as a
pocket of deeper moisture moves by.

Combined seas will generally be 7-8 feet across the region, except
more like 8-9 ft at Majuro. But the only surf advisory is for east
facing shores of Kosrae, where north swell has greatly diminished,
but east swell will likely keep surf at the low end of hazardous for
several days yet.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
The weak circulation that was JTWC invest 91W south of Koror has
nearly dissipated, and only isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected for Palau today through Fri night. Isolated thunder is also
likely at Yap through tonight in low-level convergence. The most
significant weather the next few days will likely be in Chuuk State
over the weekend as two weak circulations try to spin up west of
Chuuk Friday and south of Chuuk Sunday, producing scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms with some potential for locally heavy
rain.

Combined seas should range from 6 to 8 feet across the region, with
mostly east swell and wind waves. High surf is not expected.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for GUZ001>004.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CHST this evening for GUZ001>004.

Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CHST this evening for PMZ153-154.

&&

$$

W. Aydlett/Middlebrooke



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.