Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 290929
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
230 AM MST Thu Jun 29 2017

.Update...Aviation and Fire Weather Discussions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry airmass will remain over the region at least into early next
week with temperatures hovering near to slightly above normal.
Skies will remain mostly clear as the monsoon wind pattern has yet
to be established and storm activity will stay well south across
Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies and very dry air continue to affect the region under
westerly flow aloft. The sub-tropical high has shifted well south
into northern Mexico leaving the Desert Southwest under the dry
westerly flow. A series of weak troughs will affect areas to our
north, but will act to keep 500mb heights near 590-592dm over our
region at least through the weekend. Very little change is seen
during this time with high temperatures fluctuating only a degree
or two day to day. Saturday still looks to be the warmest day
through early next week, but just barely as most lower desert
locations top out around 110 degrees.

Though it looks to stay dry through much of next week, forecast
confidence is lower due to increasing model differences starting
the middle of next week. There is agreement among models showing
the sub-tropical high rebuilding and shifting northward into our
region after next Monday, but the strength and the positioning of
the high varies. Though we may begin to see a more favorable flow
out of the south/east, consensus among models is to be slow with
any moisture return into Arizona. This could change, but for now
it would seem there is little to no chance of monsoon activity
through at least next Thursday. As the high builds next week, we
should begin an upward climb of temperatures. The GFS is leaning
toward higher heights aloft and warmer temperatures, but the
European is noticeably lower and cooler. Leaned more toward the
GFS for forecast temperatures later next week, but knocked off a
couple degrees to give credence to the cooler European.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Dry westerly flow aloft producing clear skies. Through 20z Thu,
light and variable wind under 6 knots. From 20z Thu through 03z Fri,
increasing afternoon southwest winds 10 to 20 knots.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday:

Hot and dry weather pattern will continue throughout the period.
Minimum RH values will remain mostly in the single digits. Good
overnight recovery. Afternoon southwest winds 10 to 20 mph each day.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...Vasquez



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