Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 301031
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
328 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT
REMAIN OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS A RESULT OF
SEVERAL SMALLER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT FORMED OVER ARIZONA
YESTERDAY EVENING. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS CONTINUING TO BREW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE OVER SONORA MEXICO BY SUNRISE.
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS ARE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...ALL DUE TO
RAIN COOLED OUTFLOWS AND PRECIPITATION.

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE CENTER OF THE 594-596DM
ANTICYCLONE OVER UTAH TODAY...THE CENTER ELONGATING AND THE AXIS
TAKING ON A NW TO SE ORIENTATION OVER NEVADA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS...A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT STILL
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE...
RANGING 105-110F OR SO WITH FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE
MONSOON PATTERN AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY
MODIFIES OVER TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO
IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
TYPICAL MONSOONAL PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH STORMS FIRING OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING THOSE STORMS INTO THE NRN/ERN FRINGES OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A MITIGATING FACTOR
IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LOCATED OVER SERN/ECNTRL AZ WHICH MAY LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT THE STORMS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
AND AS SUCH WE WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE AREA TAFS. BLOWING
DUST FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IS ALSO A THREAT BUT THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERM TAF UPDATES SHOULD THE DUST MATERIALIZE AND
THREATEN TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
LIMIT ANY CIGS TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS...120K FEET AND UP.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AFTER 09Z OR SO. OF COURSE THIS DEPENDS ON THE
EXPECTED ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THEN MOVING WITH THE ELY STEERING FLOW AND INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR
STORMS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT IS NOT ZERO...BUT WAY TOO LOW
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KBLH...AND
FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB


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