Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 261600
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 AM MST THU MAR 26 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL
NEAR RECORD LEVELS. WHILE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK...READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

DISCUSSION... ANOTHER QUIET...AND MILD MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
MORNING. STRONG RIDGING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS KEEPING
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOW REMAINING UP
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. BASED ON CURRENT HOURLY TRENDS...INHERITED FORECASTS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BECOMING FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE
OVERALL CONUS FLOW PATTERN UNDERGOES A MODEST AMPLIFICATION PHASE.
00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER OF
3-8DM ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES...WITH KOAK SAMPLING 582DM
AND A HARBINGER OF FUTURE CONDITIONS HERE IN ARIZONA BY THIS
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS ALLOWING RESIDUAL
CIRRUS TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...HOWEVER
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS EROSION/EVAPORATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND NO
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VERY HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE COINCIDENT WITH 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES IN EXCESS OF 141DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR +20C WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S (AND APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS - SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). NUMERICAL AND RAW GUIDANCE
SPREAD IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY POTENTIAL
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR MULTIPLE DAY RECORDS WOULD BE THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND INHIBITING FULL INSOLATION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...HAVE GENERALLY TAILORED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL CONTINUE WITH UNRESOLVED FORECAST
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DISPLACING
THE SWRN RIDGE AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION DEPICTING A MORE CLOSED (ALBEIT STILL PROGRESSIVE) WAVE
CARRIES MORE SUPPORT FROM NAEFS MEMBERS...THIS SOLUTION CURIOUSLY
STILL PRODUCED QPF DESPITE ONLY REALIZING BOUNDARY LAYER 3-4 G/KG
MIXING RATIOS...CLOUD BASES 10K-12K MSL...AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN THE GEFS PROBABILITIES POINT TOWARDS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION...MORE APTLY
SIGNALING A RESPONSE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS.

ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST
WITH NO MOISTURE SOURCE AND LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING. H5 HEIGHTS
SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM A 576-579DM RANGE WHILE 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES APPROACH THE 140DM LEVEL...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF THE WEEKEND YET
STILL NEARLY 10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE DOMINANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTINESS
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KPHX THROUGH 15-16Z WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE...SWITCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT TIMES AND VICE VERSA...BUT OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST NORTHEASTERLY. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS TO THE
WEST WILL BE DELAYED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
AND WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOME SORT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND THEN FOLLOW MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN


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