Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 281859
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND AGAIN
LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

THE COMBINATION OF A VERY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH COLD
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME VERY STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL HELP LOWS DROP TO NEAR RECORDS AS LOW
TO MID 20S ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HERE IN
THE RALEIGH OFFICE WE HAVE STARTED OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE
SPRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10
AM ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WILL BEGIN FOR
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON APRIL 5.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SETTLE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY BUT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY EVENING. THIS
WILL HELP TO BEGIN THE TEMPERATURE TURNAROUND AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSOLATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT STILL A COOL DAY
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTH TO SOUTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL RACE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL
GET OVERTAKEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM
ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. THE PHASED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. WHILE CUT-OFF FROM  GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING JUST ENOUGH OF  ITS OWN
PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT TO SUPPORT SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
NW-SE CLEARING LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WILL TEMPER LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT... RANGING
FROM MID 30S TO AROUND 40...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LAST TO ARRIVE.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST CLOUDS ERODE...WITH A
SLOW RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...BUT MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
STRONG 20-25KT DOWN SLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON THE HEELS OF THE MONDAY SYSTEM...A LOW
AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A DRY BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN US.
CURRENTLY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH RESOLVING THE
DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH SOME WAA SHOWERS SOMETIME DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON RAIN CHANCES...BUT GENERALLY WARMER
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SWLY FLOW.  HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS IN THE
50S.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...WEAKENING TO 3-7 KT AFTER
SUNSET AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING CALM BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST/NW. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
ADVERSE CONDITIONS (MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN) WILL BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH ARE LISTED BELOW.

    RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE

GSO    20-1966

RDU    20-1966

FAY    24-1982

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ028-042-
043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...RAH


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