Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 240713
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and northern Mid
Atlantic states will extend south into our region through early next
week. Hurricane Marie is forecast to move northward through the
western Atlantic through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...

Quite weather is expected to continue today as high pressure extends
southward into our area from the Great Lakes and northern Mid
Atlantic states. This will yield dry conditions and continue above
normal temps. We may see some high thin cirrus lift northward across
the area in association with Hurricane Maria, which is located well
off the southeast U.S. coast. Expect high temps will again be in the
mid to upper 80s.

Quiet weather will continue into tonight as little is expected to
change in the overall pattern over central NC. Thus, expect low
temps will again range from around 60 in the usual rural cold area
to the lower to mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 258 AM Sunday...

Hurricane Maria continues to be forecast by the NHC to track
north through the open waters of the western Atlantic as surface
high pressure remains back over the central Appalachians through
Monday night.

Outflow from the hurricane is expected to spread increasing high
cloudiness west and north into eastern NC especially Monday
afternoon and night. Sunny and dry conditions inland will give way
to increasing cloudiness down east. Highs should still reach the mid
to upper 80s (warmest in the western Piedmont where the drier,
sunnier conditions will prevail). Further increasing in clouds from
the east expected Monday night with lows 65-70, except lower 60s
western Piedmont.

In addition, the high pressure inland combined with Marie offshore
will allow for a tightening pressure gradient. This will allow the
surface winds to begin to increase to 15-20 mph over the Coastal
Plain Monday afternoon, with 10-15 mph winds over the western
Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 258 AM Sunday...

The latest NHC forecast and most of the latest guidance indicate the
closest approach of Hurricane Marie to the NC coast should be from
Wednesday through Thursday morning, before the storm finally gets a
boot eastward from the expected deepening and digging mid/upper
trough from the upper Midwest. Based on the latest NHC forecasts and
guidance, the system has the potential to bring windy (15-25 mph
with gusts to 35 mph) to our Coastal Plain midweek, with breezy (10-
20 mph with gusts to 30 mph) conditions to the Piedmont and
Sandhills regions. The probability of Tropical Storm-Force Wind
Speed in our SE Coastal Plain has increased to between 20 and 30
percent, with only 5-10 percent back over the Triad and Triangle
areas. However, the QPF is still low given the latest NHC track.
Probabilities of 1+ inch are still less than 50/50 along the I-95
corridor.

Sensible weather will be quite variable given the current track -
with dry northerly flow in the western Piedmont, and progressively
lower overcast and higher shower chances to the east. Expect cloudy
skies east, variably cloudy central, and partly cloudy to mostly
clear along the Yadkin River mid week. Lows will be generally 65-72
W to SE Tue-Thu, with highs held down in the east (upper 70s),
ranging to the upper 80s SW.

Finally, the TC threat should get pushed seaward Thursday courtesy
of the approaching mid/upper trough. The leading front should little
if any showers Thursday afternoon and night (as the front will be
robbed of moisture by the Marie). Highs in the mid to upper 80s
expected.

Friday and Saturday will be much cooler with the strong surface high
pressure building SE from central Canada to the upper Midwest. Highs
Friday 75-82, then only 70-75 Saturday. Lows in the 50s (some 40s in
the NW by Saturday).

Models do suggest a potential wave on the front over FL or the SE
coast by Sunday, with an increasingly moist NE flow in the lower
levels. We will carry chance POPs late in the weekend to indicate
the chance of overrunning rain by then.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 240 AM Sunday...

24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are generally expected to
continue through the 24 hour TAF period as high pressure extends
into the area from the north. However, there is a small chance of
some sub-VFR visbys at KRWI during the pre-dawn hours of this
morning. Confidence is low, so will only carry a tempo group for
MVFR visbys early this morning at KRWI. Otherwise, expect quite
weather to continue, with some high clouds lifting northward across
the area. We may see some winds gusts this afternoon of around 15 to
17 kts at KFAY as the mslp gradient begins to tighten as Hurricane
Maria, located off the southeast U.S. coast, slowly lifts northward.

Outlook: VFR conditions through mid-week may be in jeopardy if the
track of Hurricane Maria begins to shift closer to the coast.
Therefore expect the possibility of some showers and breezy
conditions in the east by late Tuesday into Wednesday.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...BSD/Badgett
LONG TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...BSD/Ellis



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