Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 141007
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
307 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WILL
BRING HOT CONDITIONS WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY TODAY. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN INCREASING TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO NEAR AVERAGE BY
MIDWEEK DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WITH
A FEW DAILY RECORD HIGHS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN, ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 (WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED). FURTHER SOUTH,
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING ALOFT SINCE YESTERDAY ALONG WITH A JUMP
IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.
RATHER LIGHT STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME RAIN UNDER THEIR CORES DESPITE DEEP INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.
STILL, CORES MAY REMAIN NARROW SO SOME LIGHTING STRIKES IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION, THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER
55-60 MPH.

TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
MAY PUT THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA ON THE EDGE OF LIFT WITH
THE DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, WITH MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND EVEN SOME MINIMAL MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. WITH DEEP
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SIERRA AND INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEVADA, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH BETWEEN 0.75" AND
ONE INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED. WITH CONTINUED SLOW MOTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL INCREASE BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT IF
CLOUD COVER BECOMES TOO EXTENSIVE (AS CAN HAPPEN WITH HIGH PWATS)
CONVECTION MAY BE MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS WITH LESS HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT. WITH THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGREES LOWER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
(WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE) IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO EASE DOWN A SLIGHT BIT MORE, TOPPING OUT AROUND AVERAGE
FOR MID JULY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT
THE SAME GENERAL FORECAST STILL APPLIES. GFS/EC/GEM ALL REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOLID DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY, A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND ATTEMPT TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO NEVADA. GFS/EC ONLY
SHOW IT BRUSHING AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. HOWEVER, WEST FLOW
WILL INCREASE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
GETTING SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FOR THE WEEKEND.

WHILE THE NORTH SEES SLOW DRYING, THE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
PLENTIFUL WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS. STILL EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AS PW WILL REMAIN 3/4 TO 1 INCH. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD SOME
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WHERE THE MODELS
SHOW SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE RECORD BREAKING AGAIN TODAY WITH MOISTURE
ONLY SLOWLY INCREASING. EXPECT STORMS TODAY TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF
PYRAMID LAKE. WITH THE HIGH BASES, OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TUE/WED FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS
WITH PEAK OUTFLOW WINDS 35-40 KTS ALONG WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINS. WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING BELOW 5000 FEET FOR
     NVZ003-004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










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