Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 011117
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
317 AM PST Wed Mar 1 2017
High pressure will bring dry conditions, light winds, and a slow
warming trend through Thursday. Increasing clouds and mild
conditions are expected Friday, then a storm system will bring
gusty winds and increased chances for rain and snow this weekend.
Snow could accumulate in some lower elevations by Sunday.
Additional storm systems are possible next week.
From today through Friday, high pressure ridge near the west
coast will keep dry conditions over the region. Cloud cover will
be limited today through Thursday, followed by increasing cirrus
Friday as the ridge becomes flatter, then shifts to the east ahead
of the next storm system arriving this weekend. Some light snow
and rain showers may reach parts of northeast CA and far northwest
NV by late Friday night as low-mid level moisture begins to
Light winds will lead to limited mixing with some valley
inversions today and Thursday, but these inversions are not
expected to be very strong. Temperatures today will warm up a few
degrees with highs around 50 in lower elevations and lower-mid
40s near the Sierra. By Thursday and Friday, most lower elevations
can expect highs in the 50s-lower 60s, with mid 40s-lower 50s
near the Sierra. Another chilly night is expected tonight, then
some moderation is expected later in the week. MJD
.LONG TERM...Saturday and beyond...
Fairly significant changes for the weekend system which has come in
stronger, wetter, and colder. Winds will begin to increase Saturday
afternoon ahead of the incoming storm, with the peak of the winds
likely to occur Saturday evening into Sunday morning in conjunction
with a strong cold front. At this point winds appear to be mainly
gradient driven, without much of a downslope component, which would
result in gusty winds area-wide. This could lead to travel impacts
for high profile vehicles in addition to turbulence and wind shear
for aviation. Choppy conditions are also likely on area lakes, so it
may be best to postpone any plans to another day.
A strong cold front will help to drive a weak atmospheric river
moisture tap in the Pacific Northwest south into northern CA/NV.
Forecast soundings are very unstable which will likely accelerate
precipitation rates, especially along the cold front. Have continued
the trend of increasing storm total precipitation totals for this
system, with the period of peak precipitation rates likely to be
in the window from Saturday evening through midday Sunday.
As the cold front pushes through the region, snow levels will crash
to most all valley floors. Latest guidance would suggest up to a
couple inches of snow accumulation possible through many valley
locations, with 6-18 inches in the central and northern Sierra.
The bulk of the moisture remains closer to the Oregon border,
therefore the southern Sierra will see lesser amounts up to 6
inches. For snow that falls midday Sunday, roads may be warm
enough to limit accumulations on roadways. The other thing to note
is that temperatures will not follow a diurnal curve Sunday, with
the overnight low fairly mild and the high occurring Sunday
morning before the cold frontal passage. Temps will fall through
the day behind the front.
Breezy and unsettled conditions to follow for the start of the work
week and possibly lasting into end of the week, however confidence
is lower for the second half of the week with greater model/ensemble
spread. The best chances for precipitation will remain in northern
CA/NV closer to the Oregon border as several shortwaves move through
the region early in the week. -Dawn
Tranquil conditions with generally light winds and mainly VFR
conditions can be expected through Thursday as a ridge builds into
the west. Patchy freezing fog through the Martis Valley, including
KTRK, remains possible each morning.
Light afternoon breezes and increasing high level clouds can be
expected Friday ahead of a storm system for the weekend. This system
will bring strong and gusty winds along with rain and snow. See the
long term section for additional details. -Dawn
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...