Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 270953
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
253 AM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A chance of showers and thunderstorms return today through Sunday
with most storms near and south of Highway 50. A more summertime
pattern will set up next week with temperatures pushing well above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A weak upper low will form near the central CA coast tonight and
Saturday and then move slowly eastward across the southwestern
states through Memorial Day. Warmer surface temperatures and
cooling aloft will result in isolated-scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening with the best coverage
expected along the Sierra and south of Highway 50 in proximity to
deformation. For today, most of the activity will be confined to
Mono-Mineral Counties although a few showers could briefly develop
late in the day near the Sierra Front. The activity will then
spread a bit northward for Sat-Sun as the upper low tracks just to
our south. Small hail and locally heavy rainfall will accompany
stronger storms although model solutions do show quite a bit of
high level cloudiness which could limit instability and storm
coverage. High temperatures will be close to seasonal norms for
late May with 60s in the Sierra and 70s for lower valleys.
Hohmann

.LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Temperatures begin to warm aloft on Monday, bringing a capping
inversion aloft and reducing the chance of showers/thunder on
Memorial Day. That being said, there is still a very slight
chance that we could see a stray shower or thunderstorm in Mono
County on Monday afternoon/evening. Models are showing good
capping around 500mb for all other areas, but Mono County looks
very close to break through the capping inversion, thus the slight
chance of convection.

Better capping is evident on Tuesday, so this should keep any
convection from developing. On Wednesday, temperatures will be
peaking and we should get enough heating to overcome the capping.
High temps on Wednesday may reach into the upper 70s in the
Sierra and upper 80s in western NV. We introduced a slight chance
of thunderstorms on Wednesday for Mono- Mineral counties and it`s
possible that with a decent afternoon zephyr wind we could see
convection push north into the western NV Sierra Front late in the
day. Drier conditions are expected after Wednesday with increasing
winds and cooler temperatures as low pressure moves into the
Northern CA coast. Hoon

&&

.AVIATION...

Skies will clear this morning with light north winds through
Friday. There is a slight chance of showers Friday mainly south of
Highway 50, with a better chance of showers/storms on Saturday for
most area terminals. Wallmann/Hoon

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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