Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
000
FXUS65 KREV 251343
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
643 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER HELPED KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD IN WESTERN
NEVADA AND INTO MONO COUNTY. THEREFORE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED THERE
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, FOG HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH INTO THE LASSEN COUNTY VALLEYS. THIS
FOG IS QUITE DENSE AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE
BURNING OFF. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME CLEARER AREAS DEVELOPING FOG. TRUCKEE AND SOUTH
LAKE TAHOE AIRPORTS HAVE REPORTED VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE
AND EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CIRCULATE AROUND
THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE. THIS WILL HELP
FIRE OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL EXIST
ROUGHLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, BUT CHANCES REMAIN GOOD
ALL ALONG THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OFF THE SIERRA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
SHIFTING ROUGHLY EAST OF HWY395/I580 BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. TODAY SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH
PERCENTAGES DIMINISHING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK. GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BY TUESDAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SIERRA WHERE DRIER FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY IN.
A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FARTHER NORTH ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE
AND GERLACH AS A RESULT. DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY WITH MOST SHOWER
AND STORM POTENTIAL SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM WITH A CHANCE
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN RENO TO REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING OF MAY. FUENTES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE RIDGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
AVERAGE AND WELL INTO THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV WITH 70S COMMON IN THE
SIERRA. AT THIS POINT, THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN NV. A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES FAR ENOUGH EAST AS LOW PRESSURE AGAIN APPROACHES THE
COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DO NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY THREAT OF PRECIP AT ALL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
IN MONO COUNTY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT, BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPPED. LEFT ALONE FOR NOW IN
CASE THE MODELS SLOW DOWN THE AMOUNT OF WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OUTSIDE OF THAT, IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY CONVECTION. WALLMANN

AVIATION...
FG THIS MORNING FOR MANY TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY KTRK/KTVL. MORE
PATCHY FOG NEARBY KCXP, KRNO AS WELL. EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF 16-17Z
WITH VFR CONDS THEREAFTER.

A FEW MORE -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH MORE WEST WINDS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH WELL EAST OF THE
SIERRA CREST BY EVENING. THREATS FOR TERMINALS TO BEGIN AROUND 19Z
AND END 23Z FOR KTRK/KTVL AND 03Z ELSEWHERE. PRIMARY CONCERNS FROM
TSRA WILL BE SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.