Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 302035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP TOWARD
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND PROGRESSES INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY.
OUR AREA STAYS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...THUS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...SO WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SMOKE
FROM THE ROUGH FIRE INTO THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW
ACTIVE THE FIRE BECOMES.

WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUDS...WE THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THESE
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN FAVORED AREAS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL A SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 20

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL DROP TEMPS TO THE
80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TEMPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE 70S, EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR. FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DAYTIME TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON,
SO DESPITE THE COOLING TREND THIS COMBINATION OF WIND, HUMIDITY AND
DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

WHILE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CEDARVILLE NORTH TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN
BANDS OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 65-70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS/LAKE TAHOE BASIN. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD
TO CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT LOWER
50S FOR WARMER URBAN VALLEYS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU MONDAY, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KT TODAY, AND UP TO 20
KT MONDAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH
LAKES TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO
RETURN MONDAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND
NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE
RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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