Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 212249

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
349 PM PDT Fri Oct 21 2016


Mild afternoons are expected through Saturday under high pressure.
Southwest breezes will increase Saturday and Sunday as low pressure
strengthens off the Pacific Northwest coast. Breezy and cooler
weather is on tap for early next week with a chance for showers,
mainly over northeast California. Better chances for rain and high
elevation snow areawide are expected late next week.



Main forecast changes to raise lows Sunday and Monday nights,
especially north of highway 50, and raise POP for California
north of Portola Monday night.

With the flow turning southwest today and afternoon breezes
expected this weekend, the moderate valley inversions of the past
couple days will dissipate. The warmest day for northeast California
looks to be today before cooler temps aloft result in slow cooling
this weekend. For western Nevada, afternoon temperatures look to
remain similar as today through the weekend as cooler air aloft
remains over northwest CA and Oregon.

Winds will be somewhat light today, but a gradual increase is
expected through Sunday. Breezy southwest winds are expected Sunday
near and in the immediate lee of the Sierra while the rest of
Western NV sees lighter southwest winds. Peak gusts of 30-40 mph
are expected with gusts up to 70 mph over Sierra ridges. It will
remain dry through the weekend before the trough arrives early
next week.

Monday and Monday night, a lead wave from the eastern Pacific
trough will move into northwestern CA and Oregon. This will direct
a band of precipitation with a weakening cold front into northern
California by later Monday and Monday night. However, with the
negative-tilt upper disturbance moving by well north of the area,
the front should run out of gas over northern California. Therefore,
the best shot at precipitation will be over Plumas and northern
Lassen Counties. Areas farther south will be reliant on orographic
ascent for precipitation so it should remain mostly near the
northern Sierra crest.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

Tuesday night and Wednesday, the flow backs to more southerly
aloft with ridging building back overhead as the eastern Pacific
trough reloads with another disturbance. This should bring a break
in the threat of showers for all areas. Temperatures, both day and
night, should remain on the mild side as cloud cover and mixing
remain high enough to blunt radiational cooling substantially.

Thursday night and Friday, simulations continue to show a much
wetter system affecting eastern California and western Nevada as
an upper low scoops up deeper subtropical moisture and moves into
California. There are discrepancies regarding whether the initial
subtropical feed moves over the Sierra and western Nevada or
farther east over central and southern Nevada. However, many
simulations show precipitation with the incoming low by later
Friday or Friday night so confidence is growing for a period of
widespread precipitation late next week. Given the lack of cold
air with the low and the possibility for a warmer subtropical tap
ahead of the low, snow levels look rather high (above main Tahoe
and northeast CA passes) through Friday. -Snyder



Generally VFR conditions expected through the weekend. Winds
will increase each day over the weekend with wind gusts to 35 kts
possible by Sunday for Sierra and far western Nevada terminals.


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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