Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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094
FXUS61 KRNK 061952
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WARMER AIR WILL START TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH A WARMING TREND
AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OUR CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UPPER AND SFC LOW PRESENTLY NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS SPARKING SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE REGION.
THESE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY ROLLING THROUGH IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SMALL BASED ON LATEST HRRR
WHICH SHOWS MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DESPITE RECENT RAINS...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS ASIDE FROM THE CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER
FLOODING ALONG AND NEAR THE DAN RIVER.

GIVEN ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE...FOG COULD BECOME A CONCERN
THIS EVENING...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO CAUSE ENOUGH
MIXING TO KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PASSING LOW AND A
SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL INDUCE SOME
STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW...HOWEVER NOTHING ABOVE 35 MPH ARE FORECAST.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...SHOWERS SHOULD FIRE
UP IN THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AT THE
TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT LITTLE MORE BEYOND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS EXPECTED. AGAIN...EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.

NIGHT TIME LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONAL IN THE MID TO HIGH 40S...AND
TOMORROWS HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL AND WILL
BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO SOME SHALLOW RIDGING
AND EVENTUALLY SET UP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING THE
MODERATING TREND TO CONTINUE IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO AS
THE FRONT INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ENHANCE AND CREATE QUITE GUSTY CONDITIONS INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 80 DEGREES EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND GENERALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE TO THE
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN TRANSITORY AND TRANSITION FROM A SHALLOW
RIDGE TO A PROGRESSIVE QUASI ZONAL REGIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S EAST TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S WEST WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CREATED POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST.
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO FORM UP IN THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AT PEAK HEATING. BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE...ROA/LYH/DAN WILL
SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOWEVER
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR. OTHER LOCATIONS...CURRENTLY
FORECAST FOR VICINITY SHOWERS DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.

FOG WAS CONSIDERED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD
OCCUR TO ELIMINATE THAT THREAT. LYH AND DAN APPEAR TO BE AT MOST
THREAT BUT WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY A BIT GUSTY AND PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. THESE SHOULD CALM DOWN WITH SUNSET BUT SHOULD
BEGIN AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE. LYH SHOULD BE SPARED FROM THIS DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MAINLY VFR INTO SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE
ARRIVE SAT NIGHT-SUN WHICH COULD BRING SUB VFR WEATHER TO THE
AREA...MAINLY BCB/BLF/LWB.

MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THOUGH WARM
FRONT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS. WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE
WITH THOSE OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...JR/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JR/WP



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