Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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558
FXUS61 KRNK 242046
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
346 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure was over the upper Midwest with a cold front trailing
into eastern Texas. By Saturday afternoon this low will be tracking
to the northeast into Canada with front extending south across the
Appalachians and into the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure returns to
the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 320 PM EST Friday...

High pressure and upper level ridge along with abundant sunshine
pushed the temperatures into the 70`s across most of the area today.
Warmer than normal temperatures will continue into tonight as
southerly flow is maintain ahead of an approaching cold front.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s with mid to upper 40s
along ridgetops.

Showers associated with the cold front will enter southeastern West
Virginia and southwestern Virginia around sunrise tomorrow, then
move to the Blue Ridge by 10 AM. Some gusty winds and a rumble of
thunder may accompany these showers. These showers will move over
the foothills and piedmont counties during the early afternoon.
Increase instabilities from daytime heating may allow some of these
showers over the piedmont to intensify during the afternoon. The
main threat from these storms will be straight-line winds. Latest
models are showing the line of showers redeveloping and intensifying
east of route 15 (Farmville Road). If this is the case, the wind
threat for the piedmont will be greatly reduced. The best threat and
higher confidence area for strong storms Saturday afternoon and
evening will be north of I64 and moreso north of the Mason-Dixon
line. Rainfall amounts from showers Saturday will generally be up to
a quarter of an inch (0.25).

The upper level trough of this system will track across the Ohio
Valley Saturday. This trough will bring a round of light
precipitation to the mountains during the late afternoon and
overnight hours to western slopes of southeastern West Virginia and
southwestern Virginia. These showers will start out as rain, then
transition over to snow as colder air filters in behind the Theta-E
boundary late in the day. Trajectories from the Great Lakes are
brief and along with the warm ground, only light accumulations of
snow are possible at elevations above 3000 feet into the evening.
With the slow arrival of cold air, Saturday`s temperatures will warm
above normal with readings ranging from the mid to upper 50s west to
the 60s east of the Blue Ridge. Southside Virginia may peak in the
lower 70s Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EST Friday...

Shot of cold air will cross the forecast area Saturday night
into Sunday with temperatures tumbling back to near seasonal
norms with highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 20s/30s. Blustery
northwest winds Saturday night will gradually diminish Sunday.
Model soundings indicate some very shallow moisture across the
Mountains west of the Blue Ridge Saturday night, so can`t rule
out a few flurries, but the overall trend will be for drying and
clearing with Sunday turning out to be Mostly Sunny.

Zonal flow will develop across the CONUS by Monday, cold shot
of air over our forecast area short lived, and replaced with
warm air advection from the southwest. Southwest winds will also
bring a return of increasing moisture and threat for showers.
Short wave trough within the southern stream will bring
increasing cloudiness on Monday, with potential for scattered
rain showers Monday night. With moderating temperatures, not
expecting any p-type issues...temperatures warming back above
freezing and above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 PM EST Friday...

Zonal flow will promote warming temperatures for mid week with
main focus for precip centered around noisy southern stream
short wave energy which models are having difficulty timing.

Through Wednesday, the region is expected to remain in a deep
southwest flow in advance of a developing trough across the
Central Plains states. The GFS continues to be more progressive
in depicting pieces of energy streaming across the area, each
with the potential for additional rounds of precipitation,
especially on Wednesday. CAPE is also forecast to peak on
Wednesday, and with trough generally forecast to come through
during the day this suggest potential for thunderstorms. Since
models have not quite nailed down the timing will list the
threat as slight chance attm.

Temperatures will also peak Wednesday followed by lowering
numbers for Thursday behind the trough, dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures returning Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1225 PM EST Friday...

Bufkit soundings still showed scattered VFR stratocumulus this
afternoon. Cloud cover will continue to increase after midnight
as high clouds from showers and thunderstorms in the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys spread east. Medium to low confidence how fast
ceilings may lower to MVFR in the mountains overnight. Front and
associated precipitation will not arrive into the mountains
until after 09Z/4AM...east of the Blue Ridge after 14Z/9AM.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will cross the Mid Atlantic
region on Saturday and will be east of KLYH and KDAN by 00Z/7PM.
Drier weather and increasing northwest winds follow behind the
front on Saturday night through Sunday morning. High pressure
will cover the region behind the front for late Sunday into
Monday with lighter winds.

A warm front is expected to stay near us Monday night into
Tuesday keeping a threat of showers around with sub-VFR
possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 345 AM EST Friday...

February 24 Record Highs:

Bluefield  71 (1961)
Danville   79 (2012)
Lynchburg  79 (2012)
Roanoke    80 (1985)
Blacksburg 73 (1975)

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/RCS
CLIMATE...WP



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