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000
FXUS61 KRNK 191923
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
323 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass across the area this evening,
accompanied by scattered showers and a few Thunderstorms.
Passage of the front will bring cooler temperatures to the
region for the weekend with dry weather Saturday. The front is
expected to stall over the southern Appalachians, with low
pressure developing along the front and passing just to our
south Sunday. This will bring clouds back across our region
Sunday with a chance for light rain along and south of the
Virginia, North Carolina border. Fair weather returns for Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms before midnight.

2) Cooler air arrives overnight.

A cold front was along the western slopes of the Appalachians.
This front will cross the forecast area this evening associated
with scattered showers and thunderstorms. There is a marginal
risk for severe storms, mainly along and south of the VA/NC
border where CAPE may provide enough energy for robust
thunderstorms cells. Main threat would be large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

The cold front should clear the forecast area by midnight,
but not confident how fast we will clear per abundance of low
level moisture along the front.  Skies likely to stay fairly
cloudy most of the night with some clearing toward dawn.
Variations exist in the models with respect to cloud cover late
tonight so low confidence in tonight`s sky conditions and
temperature. More cloud cover will keep lows elevated and cooler
if skies clear. For now went close to MOS with mid to upper 40s
west to mid 50s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:
1. Near normal temperatures Saturday, cooler on Sunday.

2. Precipitation chances increase Sunday south of VA border.

3. Patchy frost possible in the mountain valleys Sunday night.

To start the weekend, a cold front will have crossed the area
leaving us with a cooler drier northerly wind. As the dry air
filters into the region it will feel cooler as the dewpoints
fall into the 30s. Actual air temperatures should feel quite
pleasant with highs topping out near the seasonal normals for
this area...mid 60s to lower 70s.

After a nice day Saturday clouds will increase again for
Sunday. The front which passed through the area Friday night is
expected to stall over the southern Appalachians with low
pressure developing along the front and moving northeast to
along the mid-Atlantic coast. This will result in widespread
isentropic lift across the Carolinas with the potential for rain
across the southeast states...and potentially as far north as
the VA/NC border. Attm will maintain a chance for measurable
rainfall for Sunday, but mainly across our southern CWA. Clouds
for Sunday also suggests cooler temperatures. Without any sun,
the temperatures will be cooler than normal with highs only in
the 50s to lower 60s. Sunday night will also be quite cool, and
if we clear out, temperatures in the mountains may dip into the
30s, with the potential of some patchy frost.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1: Light rain chances Wednesday

2: Warmest day of the period will be Tuesday.

An upper level trough will move over cool dry high pressure Monday.
No rain is expected, but should see cirrus in the morning and
cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Clouds and cool air will keep
temperatures a few degrees cooler than normal with highs ranging
from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Dry high pressure will stay in the area through Tuesday, but with
more sun than Monday. Tuesday`s high temperatures will be close to
normal with mid to upper 60s west of the Blue Ridge to lower 70s
east.

A cold front approaches the area Tuesday night with light rain
entering the mountains early Wednesday morning. The cold front and
rain showers will move over the foothills and piedmont early in the
afternoon, exiting the area by the evening commute. Rainfall amounts
may only be a couple hundredths of an inch. The combination of rain
in the morning and cold air entering in the afternoon will keep
temperatures cooler than normal across the mountains Wednesday.
Highs will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Areas east of the
Blue Ridge will see rain later in the day which should allow
temperatures to warm to normal levels in the afternoon.

Following the frontal passage Wednesday, cool high pressure will
settle over the region to end the workweek. Temperatures will be
cooler than normal Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Cold front will scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
this evening.

2. Cold front will bring a wind shift to the area overnight.

SCT-BKN cumulus build-ups expected this evening with scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Greatest coverage is
expected along and south of the VA/NC border. Winds this evening
will be relatively light until the passage of a cold
front...predominant wind direction becoming northwest overnight
and out of the North-northwest Saturday.

Areas of MVFR cigs are expected through Saturday morning, then
trending VFR for late Saturday morning and afternoon.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

The aforementioned cold front will exit to the south and east
of the CWA by Saturday. Some MVFR ceilings may linger across the
mountains Saturday morning. North winds will provide some
clearing for late Saturday, but more moisture may surge
northeastward during Sunday and Monday to bring another chance
of rain as low pressure rides across the southeastern states.
Confidence in the later scenario is quite low at this time.

Another front approaches by middle of next week though shower
chances and sub-VFR are not expected to be that great.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM