Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 131836
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS NOTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN...WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST PR AS WELL AS SOUTH OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 15 KNOTS.

TUTT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN AN INVERTED/INDUCED TROUGH
IN THE TRADES. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY. THERE IS A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION.

AS TUTT NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK..
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS EVOLVING PATTERN...
COMBINED WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL RESULT IN ONLY OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN PR EACH DAY NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA STILL POSSIBLE
AT TJMZ AND TJPS TIL 13/21Z. WIND FROM THE EAST AT 10-15 KTS FROM
SFC UP TO 5 KFT BECOMING N-NW AT 5-10 KTS UP TO 15 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SEAS OF UP TO
5 FEET AND WINDS 17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  20  20  10  20
STT  79  90  79  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

05/23





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