Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 310916
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
516 AM AST TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure ridge north of the region and broad surface
trough spread across the central and eastern caribbean...will
maintain a moist southeasterly wind flow across the forecast area
through most of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers with thunderstorms
were observed across Puerto rico overnight. periods of very heavy
rainfall was observerd mainly over the southeast section of Puerto
rico. Rainfall accumulation between one to two inches were
recorded in some localized areas.

The combination of the upper trough just west of the region along
with a significant moist environment...local and diurnal effects
will continue to support rapid development of showers and
thunderstorm activity across portions of the islands and coastal
waters today and at least until Wednesday. Some of the showers and
thunderstorms will continue to produce periods of locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds which will eventually lead to minor
flooding of urban areas... rivers and small streams especially
along portions of the northern half of Puerto Rico including parts
of the San Juan metro area. it is important to mentioned that
soils are saturated over the southeast...eastern interior and east
sections of puerto rico with recent periods of heavy rainfall.
therefore...any additional rainfall...will result in rapid rises
in the rivers and creeks across these areas.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly cloudy with VCSH across the eastern region during
the morning with brief periods of MVFR cond pos in and around USVI
terminals...TJSJ and TJPS. After 31/16Z...SHRA and ISOLD TSRA
expected over and north of the Cordillera...pos affecting TJBQ/TJMZ
and TJSJ. Winds from the ESE at around 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...Winds are expected to increase across the coastal
waters...mainly in the Atlantic waters. As a result...small craft
should exercise caution as seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 15
knots are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  87  76 /  50  40  40  40
STT  86  78  85  78 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

05/71


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