Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 102124
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
324 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. SLOW DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD. MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS MAINLY
THE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH
HAS YET TO SEE ANY DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN NEVADA SHOULD TEND TO HELP WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE TOMORROW AND THE LATEST
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DRYING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT HAVE BUMPED POPS FOR SOUTHWEST UTAH FOR TOMORROW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TOMORROW AS WELL.
THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE WEAK WAVES WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AGAIN TOMORROW.

THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS GOOD TODAY AND COULD BE AGAIN
TOMORROW...BUT WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT MAKE THE CALL AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT TO ISSUE A NEW FFA. THE HIGHEST THREAT AREAS WILL BE THE
TYPICAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLOT CANYONS...SLICK ROCK AREAS...SMALL
STREAMS IN STEEP TERRAIN AND DRY WASHES. DEBRIS FLOWS NEAR RECENT
BURN SCARS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY LATER INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE EXPANDS WEST...ESSENTIALLY HALTING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND THE NORTHWARD ENCROACHMENT OF MOISTURE. AS THE HIGH REFORMS
TO OUR WEST THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND CELL MOVEMENT
WILL CHANGE. THE AIRMASS SHOULD STILL DRY ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE SLC TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL FROM AROUND 23Z TO AROUND 04Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 02-03Z
BEFORE SWITCHING TO SOUTH...BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
EARLIER SWITCH OR AT LEAST ERRATIC WINDS AS SHOWERS ENCROACH ON THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FILL BACK IN AGAIN DURING THE
MID-MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE ENCOMPASSES THE DISTRICT AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE A DRIER AIRMASS
BEGINS TO PUNCH INTO THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENTLY WATCHING A WAVE
OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA LIFTING NORTHEAST THAT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH...BUT MOST STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE PER NORM WITH SUNSET. REGARDLESS
OF ANY OVERNIGHT RAIN RH HUMIDITY WILL BE EXCELLENT TONIGHT. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND WILL SET IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS SHUNTED EAST...BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE TERRAIN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
BULGING WEST OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP MOST ALL OF THE
DISTRICT WITHIN A SOMEWHAT DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH GENERALLY
ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN STORMS AND MINIMUM POTENTIAL OF WETTING
RAINS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ010-
     012>014-016-019>021-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION.......CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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