Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 210313
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
913 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW SITUATED ALONG THE SOCAL COASTLINE IS
PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT THIS
EVENING. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THIS AREA...AND
CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND IN TERMS OF
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN NV IN CLOSER PROXIMITYTO
THE UPPER LOW. A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN UT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE WASATCH FRONT...AND THIS WILL LARGELYREMAIN
THE CASE THROUGH TONIGHT.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT...THEN ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INLAND
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL YIELD
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSUMING
THE AIRMASS CAN SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

UPDATED EARLIER TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT POPS BASED ON RECENT
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KSLC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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