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000
FXUS65 KSLC 250848
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
248 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY. AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A 50-85KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RAP...GOES...GPS SENSORS...AND 00Z SLC RAOB
INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 0.13"-0.41" RANGE ACROSS
THE REGION.

A DRY...WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PRESIDE TODAY WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE BUILDING INSTABILITY AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT.
WITH DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION...COOLING ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF A LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY...KEPT HIGHER POPS FOR NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF UTAH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG PACIFIC JET AND TROUGH.
GFS/EUROPEAN AND NAEFS ALL INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE SURGE IS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA...THUS KEPT MID RANGE SCATTERED POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS INDICATE REINFORCING WAVES POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MAKING FOR A COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PERIOD...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING AND SHOULD
REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND TO
INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AT TIMES
AFTER 17Z...GUSTS GREATER THAN 30MPH THE POTENTIAL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES HOLDING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE THE DOMINANT FIRE
WEATHER ISSUE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ONCE AGAIN. FUELS REMAIN GREEN
AT THIS TIME PER LATEST REPORTS BUT THESE WEATHER FACTORS WOULD
CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF THIS WAS NOT THE CASE.
EXTENT OF LOW RH AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTH
THROUGH MOST ALL AREAS TODAY ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AID NEAR SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT.

A TRANSITION AWAY FROM DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO BE
NOTICED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SO TUESDAY ON AS A SERIES
OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN STATES. AT THE
LEAST INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL BE REALIZED...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
WETTING RAINS FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WELL FOR
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)