Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 261126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
426 AM PDT THU MAY 26 2016

Showers and isolated thunderstorms over Sierra Nevada and the
higher elevations of the Coastal Range today and into the
weekend. Northerly offshore winds increase Friday into Saturday
with warming expected into early next week with Valley
temperatures increasing into the 90s.


.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...
The main upper level trough moves into the eastern Great Basin
with subtle shortwave ridging over NorCal to help further dry the
atmosphere. However, valley dewpoints are still in the 50s, so
some stratus may still form in the Delta and the southern
Sacramento Valley this morning. Expect some isolated
afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains near the Sierra/Coastal Range crests today. Northwest
steering flow will likely push any cells southeastward.

Northerly dry flow on Friday will help to warm temperatures up
into the mid to upper 80s in the valley with mainly 60s for the
mountains. North and West Sacramento Valley winds will likely be
breezy with potential gusts into the upper 20 to lower 30 mph
range. Shower/thunderstorm activity should be limited to the
Sierra, southward of Lake Tahoe.

Saturday and Sunday, a weak trough moves through the Pacific
Northwest that will increase instability with storms remaining
over mountains. Temperatures will continue to be in the lower 90s
for the valley and 60s to mid 70s for the mountains. Northerly
winds will remain gusty into Saturday, especially west of the
Sacramento River.            JClapp

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday through Thursday)
High pressure ridging dominates NorCal Monday through midweek
with dry, warm weather. Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest
days next week with valley highs in the low to mid 90s, higher
terrain highs in the 60s (Sierra Crest) to 80s (foothills). These
daytime highs will measure 7 to 10 degrees above normal for this
time of year. On Wednesday, slight cooling trend begins as the
ECMWF and GFS indicate a strong low in the Gulf of Alaska
approaching the West the ridge axis moves eastward into
the Great Basin. Models differ on when precipitation may move
inland (Thursday vs Friday), but this is beyond the 7 day
forecast. JBB


Mainly VFR conditions for TAF sites with winds generally 5 to 12
kts today. MVFR clouds forming in the Bay Area and moving into the
Delta Region. Slight chance that MVFR ceilings could develop in
the Sacramento region this morning between 12-16Z. Isold to SCT
showers and thunderstorms with MVFR to locally IFR conditions
along western Sierra slopes aft 19Z. JBB


.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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