Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 272135
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
235 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. INCREASING
MONSOON MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING TODAY BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
AS A RESULT, NORTHERLY FLOW PICKING UP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAC VALLEY (SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH). THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU AROUND MIDDAY
TUESDAY BEFORE GRADIENT SLACKENS A BIT. FLOW WILL TURN MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE SIERRA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS LIKELY. MAIN STORY THOUGH THIS WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF
VERY HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY
TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 90S WITH EVEN HOTTER READINGS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE
VALLEY ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 100-111 (WARMEST NORTHERN
SAC VALLEY) AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS TO SENSITIVE GROUPS.
COASTAL INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH THE DELTA
LIKELY SEEING A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF. CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

GRADUAL COOLING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY AS RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY. LOW TRIPLE DIGITS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN SAC VALLEY THRU MONDAY THOUGH. COASTAL INFLUENCE WILL
INCREASE WITH STRENGTHENING DELTA BREEZE BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES (80S) TO THAT AREA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NORTHWARD SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR THE RETURN
OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN THOUGH IN DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN AND COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION WHICH LEADS TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HINTS AT A
FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE VALLEY WHILE ECMWF ON THE DRIER SIDE. FOR
NOW, HAVE NOT MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST WITH LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CEO


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE VISBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES (LOWELL, WRAGG) DUE TO SMOKE.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS (TO 15-20KTS) POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
VALLEY SITES WITH STRONGEST WINDS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF
SAC VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
SIERRA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CEO


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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