Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 061511
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
811 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.Synopsis...
Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend. Drier and
warmer weather is then expected next week.

.Short Term Discussion...
One wave of light showers moving across the forecast area this
morning, with a second wave on it`s heals. Should then be a little
break early in the afternoon which will then lead to more
convection and a few thunderstorms. Would think organized
convection again less than yesterday, but best chance of a few
organized cells looks to be in northern parts of the valley where
models brining more lift and more CAPE also present.

Next stronger wave of moisture progged by both GFS and NAM to
rotate in late tonight and Saturday morning. Rasch

.Previous Short Term Discussion

Closed low continues to impact our weather today as the center of
the low sits over SoCal today. Models continue to show a vort max
rotating around this low into our region this morning. Current
radar shows evidence of this as showers from Nevada are now
cyclonically moving across the Sierra into our CWA. The HRRR shows
a decent slug of moisture stretching from Yosemite up towards
Lassen Park and moving westward this morning across interior
NorCal between now through late morning with scattered showers
continuing for the rest of the day. Models indicating that the
atmosphere won`t be as unstable as yesterday, but there is still a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Lightning has already been
observed this morning over in Nevada. Residents should still be
prepared for periods of downpours, gusty winds, lightning, and
small hail today even though it may not be as widespread as
yesterday.

On Saturday, the low tracks farther east in the Great Basin, but
wrap around moisture will continue to stream into our CWA
continuing the threat of showers and possible thunderstorms into
Sunday. By Sunday, though, coverage will diminish with best
chances of shower activity persisting over the western Sierra
slopes.

Monday will start a drier, warmer trend for the work week as high
pressure ridging builds over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and impacts
the West Coast. Valley highs will return to the low 80s with
higher terrain in the 60s and 70s. JBB


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

Forecast models are advertising a quick moving upper level
disturbance that should slide out of the Pacific northwest that may
clip portions of northern California on Tuesday.  This disturbance
may bring some isolated sprinkles in the mountains, but no
significant precipitation is expected Tuesday or Tuesday night.

The main story in the long term forecast period is a return to quiet
weather with a pattern of warm and dry weather pushing into
California.  An upper level ridge of high pressure will move eastward
from the Pacific Tuesday night through Wednesday that will bring
above normal high temperatures to the valley through the end of
next week.
&&

.AVIATION...

A stagnant low pressure system positioned over California will
bring overcast conditions, light rain showers, and chances for
thunderstorms today across the valley. As a result, there will be
periods of MVFR ceilings for the terminals north and south of
Sacramento.

Antecedent moisture from rainfall yesterday could cause some
reduced visibilities and ceilings between MVFR and IFR for
periods this morning for terminals in Sacramento county.

Ceilings and visibilities should improve across the valley Friday
evening with a return to VFR conditions for the terminals.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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