Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 252214
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
314 PM PDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.Synopsis...
Above normal temperatures this weekend into next week. The Sierra
crest will see a threat of thunderstorms Sunday through much of
next week and possibly as far north as the Shasta County mountains
on Wednesday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion...
Warm high pressure building over the western US is causing
heights to rise over California...resulting in temperatures
to be 5 to 9 degrees warmer today than this time yesterday and
squashing out the marine layer and delta breeze. This high
pressure will persist through the weekend and into next week which
will continue to keep temperatures several degrees above normal.
On Sunday, a weak trough will approach northern California which
will increase southerly flow aloft and support monsoonal moisture
to start spreading northward along the west side of the high. The
moisture combined with some instability over the mountains may
generate isolated Sierra crest thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon/evening. By Monday, the moisture will continue to spread
over the Sierra as another disturbance passes over the area,
supporting another threat of afternoon/evening isolated
thunderstorms along the Sierra. Shen


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Little change expected through the extended period as upper ridge
axis remains east of Interior NorCal and upper troughing persists
over the eastern Pacific. Some monsoonal moisture progged mainly
along the Sierra Crest Tuesday with enough southwest component to
the mid level flow to suggest any afternoon thunderstorm
development will be mainly east of our Sierra Nevada zone. Models
show mid level flow becoming more southerly Wednesday as a small
scale upper trough clips the northwest portions of California.
Afternoon thunderstorm potential may expand northward along our
Sierra zone through the Western Plumas mountains into the Shasta
range on Wednesday. Progs then show more southwesterly flow
Thursday into Friday to keep any thunderstorm development mainly
north and east of the CWA. Fair skies forecast for the remainder
of Interior NorCal with above normal temperatures. Highs in the
Central Valley expected from the mid 90s to around 104, hottest in
the Northern Sacramento Valley, with mainly 80s to 90s for the
mountains and foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

SWly flow alf as upr trof ovr NorCal is replaced with upr rdg fm
Desert SW. VFR conds with genly lgt sfc wnds ovr Intr NorCal nxt
24 hrs.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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