Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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374
FXUS64 KTSA 102200
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
400 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Current visible satellite imagery shows the cloud deck that set-up
across the region yesterday has changed very little in overall
areal extent. Several areas attempted to erode without too much
success, though the band has push slightly eastward through the
day today with western edge seeing some eroding. The cloud deck
did manage to suppress mixing a bit, thus keeping southerly winds
in check today; however, WAA still managed to push temperatures
up into the relatively mild range of the mid to upper 40s this
afternoon. Through the overnight period temperatures will change
very little and will likely increase a bit by morning. Sunday
will seem pretty mild as temperatures look to climb into the 50s
and 60s ahead of an approaching front.

A shortwave trough will move through the flow with the associated
surface front nearing the region by Sunday afternoon. Low-level
moisture will increase tonight and tomorrow ahead of the front
allowing areas of drizzle and light rain showers to develop by
tomorrow morning across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Best
chance for rain showers still looks to be western Arkansas by
Sunday afternoon/evening as the front pushes through.

This warm-up will be brief, however, with cooler temperatures moving
back in by Monday. The remainder of the week will see another
round of much colder air works its way into the central Conus by
midweek.Models have trended down on precip with this system so
have kept pops low midweek. By the end of the week, longer-range
models are in pretty good agreement with a longwave Pacific
trough moving inland. Strong WAA and an increase in moisture will
allow a bit of instability out ahead the front, so the area could
potentially see a thunderstorm or two before the surface front
moves through. Given that this is towards the end of the coming
week, a number of things could change with this system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  58  30  51 /  10  20  10   0
FSM   38  58  39  57 /  10  30  30   0
MLC   44  63  36  55 /  20  20  10   0
BVO   40  56  25  51 /  10  20  10   0
FYV   38  53  33  55 /  10  40  30   0
BYV   36  51  32  51 /  10  30  30   0
MKO   40  58  33  53 /  10  30  10   0
MIO   39  53  27  50 /  10  30  10   0
F10   42  61  33  53 /  10  20  10   0
HHW   41  64  43  56 /  20  30  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....11



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