Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 301048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO E
OK AND W AR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AFFECTING ALL THE TERMINALS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY...BUT IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE PERIODS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN...LIKELY TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT
BVO AND AGAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT FOR MLC/FSM. TSRA MOST LIKELY AT
MLC/FSM...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT OTHER
TERMINALS...JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THAT AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TIGHTEN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AND INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINS IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER NARROW WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE DURATION OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IS LIKELY TO LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EXPECTED EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS THUS THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY TODAY WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
REACHED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO
HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW WARM UP IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...22




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