Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 111118
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
518 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. West to
northwest winds will become gusty late this morning and through
the afternoon as a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 402 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...
This morning a shortwave and associated frontal boundary were
pushing southeast from the Northern Plains into the Central
Plains. Ahead of this system...mostly clear skies and light winds
varying between west and south were common across Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas. This wave will continue to push
southeastward and move into the CWA late this afternoon and
evening. The main concerns with this forecast will be the
dangerous fire conditions both ahead and behind the frontal
boundary through this evening.

Westerly winds are expected to increase through the day with gusts
in the 15 to 25+mph range ahead of the front. These winds will aid
in afternoon temperatures warming well above the seasonal average
with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s from north to south. In
response...afternoon minimum relative humidity values are forecast
to fall into the 15 to 25 percent range for most locations and
with the ongoing dry conditions over the region...dangerous fire
weather dangers are anticipated this afternoon. Will go with a Red
Flag Warning for much of Northeast Oklahoma and also far
Northwest Arkansas and a Fire Danger Statement for the rest of
the CWA through 6 PM CST this evening. See OKCFWTSA and OKCRFDTSA
for further details. Day shifts will need to closely monitor
conditions for the possibility of expanding the Red Flag warning
if there is any uptick in wind speeds than what is currently
forecast.

A dry frontal boundary is progged to enter into Northeast Oklahoma
late this afternoon and spread across the CWA this evening. Behind
the frontal passage...gusty northwesterly winds in the 20 to
30+mph range will be possible into the early evening hours and
begin to weaken into the 5-15mph range overnight. This wind shift
could impact any ongoing wildfire activity. Fire dangers should
begin to weaken during the evening hours as relative humidity
values begin to recover and temperatures forecast to get down into
the upper 20s to mid 30s from north to south by Tuesday morning.

More seasonal temperatures are forecast Tuesday/Tuesday night
behind the exiting upper level trof axis Tuesday morning as upper
level northwesterly flow sets up over the Plains. However...this
pattern looks to quickly revert back to more of a downslope flow
for Wednesday with warmer temperatures ahead of another shortwave
and associated dry frontal boundary forecast to move through the
CWA Wednesday night/Thursday. Again..northerly upper level flow
into Friday will help to bring temperatures back closer to the
seasonal average.

Extended model solutions continue to indicate a more westerly
upper level flow developing over the weekend with a third wave
pushing across the Plains Saturday night/Sunday. Ahead of this
wave...warmer temperatures and gusty southerly winds will be
possible. The southerly winds could transport enough moisture back
into the region for possible rain chances Sunday with the wave.
However...the greater potential for precip continues to be east
and southeast of the CWA and will thus continue with a dry
forecast package for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  31  50  34 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   71  33  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   72  35  50  32 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   66  29  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   64  28  43  27 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   64  30  42  30 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   69  32  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   63  30  44  30 /   0   0   0   0
F10   69  33  50  33 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  36  52  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for OKZ054>064-067>069.

AR...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$


AVIATION.....18


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