Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 281048
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
548 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A cold front will move into NE OK/NW AR this morning with gusty
north winds expected behind the front across NE OK into the
afternoon hours. Winds will begin to decrease by early evening.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning a closed low pressure system was sagging
southward across the Great Lakes Region with an associated
backdoor cold front pushing southwestward through the Plains and
Midwest. Ahead of this boundary...mostly clear skies and south to
southwesterly winds were common across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas.

The closed low will continue to drift southward into the Ohio
River Valley today with the cold front pushing into and through
the CWA. The front is expected to move into the CWA during the
mid/late morning hours and exit Southeast Oklahoma this evening. A
lack of moisture over the region should keep the frontal passage
dry with breezy northerly winds behind the front. Temperatures
this afternoon ahead of the front are forecast to warm into the
mid 80s mainly along and south of Interstate 40...while temps in
the 70s/low 80s will be possible north of Interstate 40 behind the
front.

A cool and drier airmass is progged to also filter into the region
tonight within upper level northerly flow. This airmass should
remain common through the end of the work week as the closed low
stalls near/just south of the Ohio River Valley. In
response...below seasonal average high temperatures in the 70s
are forecast over the CWA Thursday and Friday.

Over the weekend...latest model solutions continue to indicate the
closed low finally lifting off to the northeast which will allow
for high pressure over the Southern Plains to exit off to the east
by the start of next week. Thus...southerly flow is progged to
return to the CWA Sunday afternoon and become breezy for the
first half of next week ahead of another wave and cold front
approaching from the west. Increasing moisture within the
southerly flow will aid another warming trend and also the next
chances for showers and thunderstorms by the middle part of the
week.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12


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