Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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664
FXUS63 KUNR 252313
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
513 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Friday Night)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Upper level analysis has broad trof across the western CONUS with
several weak shortwaves moving through the base of the trof. Skies
are partly to mostly cloudy across the Northern Plains. At the
surface, weak Canadian high pressure resides across the area.
Temperatures at 2pm are in the 60s and 70s with 5 to 15 mph west
to northwest winds.

Tonight...As broad trof remains over the northern CONUS, a weak
shortwave will lift out of southern WY, with chances for showers
and isolated thunderstorms increasing after midnight. Low
temperatures will fall into the 40s to mid 50s.

Friday...Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage on
Friday, with many locations seeing a tenth to a quarter inch of
liquid. With widespread cloud cover and precipitation,
temperatures will struggle into the 60s across much of the area.
The exception will be across Northeast WY and far south central
SD, where a bit more sun will help temps into the 70s. Guidance
showing 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by 21Z, and with 0-6 km
shear around 35 kts, a few storms may become strong to severe.
Showers and storms will shift quickly east Friday night, with low
temperatures falling into the 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The upper trough will exit the area on Saturday, pushing
precipitation to the east and keeping temperatures at readings
near average. Upper level ridge quickly rebuilds across the
central and western conus, which will allow temperatures to warm
back into the 80s to 90s beginning on Sunday and lasting through
at least the middle of next week. Dry conditions are expected
during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued At 508 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage after 03z and
especially from 09-12z. Some MVFR/IFR CIGS are expected over the
BLKHLS from 06z through 15z Friday. An area of MVFR CIGS also is
expected to translate northeast with the rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms Friday morning through the afternoon from west-
central into central SD. Only patchy MVFR CIGS are possible over
northeastern WY. Conditions should improve Friday afternoon.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Bunkers



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