Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FGUS71 KBOX 122122

522 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017

...The Spring Flood Potential is near normal for much of Southern
New England, except above normal for the Connecticut River...

The Spring flood potential for southern New England is near normal
for the majority of rivers and streams in the area. The exception
is along the main stem Connecticut River in MA and CT, where the
flood potential is above normal. The potential for flooding due to
ice jams is over for the season.

The following web site has a map depicting the flood potential

This is the ninth winter/spring flood potential outlook of the 2017
season. This outlook is based on current and forecast
hydrometeorological conditions. This includes snow cover and snow
water equivalent, stream and river levels and the amount of ice
coverage, recent precipitation and temperatures, and expected
temperatures and precipitation over the next two weeks.

...Recent Precipitation...

Southern New England experienced below normal precipitation during
the month of March. Liquid equivalent totals ranged from 2.5 to 3.5
inches across much of the region. Higher totals of 3 to over 4
inches fell across much of RI, and portions of eastern MA.
Precipitation totals were mainly 0.5 to 2 inches below normal for
the month.

April started off with a series of 3 significant precipitation
events, bringing soaking rains, and in some areas snowfall. April
precipitation totals were the highest across the eastern half of
MA, all of RI, and eastern CT. In these areas, liquid equivalent
precipitation ranged from 3 to 5 inches. The highest totals were
found across southeast MA. Across the Connecticut River Valley
region in MA, and across north central CT, precipitation totals
month-to-date ranged mainly from 3 to 4 inches.

...Observed snow depths and water equivalents...

As of April 12, no snow pack remained across southern New England,
including MA east of Berkshire County, north central and northeast
CT, and all of RI. This is typical for mid-April.

...River and Ice Conditions...

As of April 12, river and stream flows ranged from normal to above
normal. Much of the remaining snow pack across the headwaters of the
Connecticut and Merrimack Rivers (within NH and VT) melted out due
to this week`s unseasonably warm conditions. The lower Merrimack
River in MA is expected to crest near or just below Action Stage
Thursday night, then gradually recede.  However some River Forecast
Points along the mainstem Connecticut River are forecast to crest
above Action Stage during Thursday or Thursday night. As of April
12, a River Flood Watch was in effect for the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam, for possible river flooding during the Thursday night
timeframe. Those with interests for this River Forecast Point should
stay tuned for updates, via our web site http:weather.gov/boston,
NOAA All Hazards Radio, media, or other information outlets.

The flooding potential due to ice jams is over for this season.

...Soil Moisture Conditions...

Soil moisture was near normal for this time of year. Soils were

...Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

Mainly dry and seasonably mild conditions prevail for the end of
this work week as high pressure builds over New England. A few
showers may accompany a warm front late Saturday into Saturday
night, followed by warmer weather Sunday. A series of cold fronts
will bring a cooling trend early next week. Through the middle of
next week, precipitation may be limited to a half inch or less.

Looking farther ahead, the Climate Prediction Center`s 8 to 14 Day
Outlook covering the period from April 20 to 26, calls for below
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.


Based on information available at this time, the spring flood
potential is near normal for the majority of southern New England.
The exception is across the main stem Connecticut River, where the
flood potential is above normal.

Rivers and streams were mainly at normal or above normal flows,
and soil moisture is near normal. A lack of snow pack within
southern New England is typical for mid-April. This week`s
unseasonable warmth also allowed for considerable snowmelt to
occur in the headwaters of the Connecticut and Merrimack Rivers in
NH and eastern VT.

Because of this snowmelt, the lower Connecticut River is expected
to continue to run at elevated levels into this weekend, with
some River Forecast Points along the river cresting above Action
Stage. The Connecticut River at Middle Haddam may peak around
Flood Stage during Thursday night. Because the Connecticut River
will take some time to recede, this major waterway is in a more
vulnerable state, should a soaking rainfall materialize. Hence the
Flood Outlook for the lower Connecticut River is above normal.

Otherwise, below normal precipitation over the next several days is
expected to provide an opportunity for other area rivers and
streams, including the Merrimack River, to remain nearly steady or
gradually recede.

Keep in mind that heavy rain can cause flooding any time of the
year. Those with interests along rivers and streams should check the
Hazardous Weather Outlook, which highlights any potential flood
events over the next 7 days. Go to http://weather.gov/boston and
click on the option Hazards, then click on Local Outlook.

The next outlook will be issued on Thursday, April 27.


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