Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 252052
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN...RELEGATING STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
DE-AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EAST...AS TROUGHING MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THIS WEEKEND.

...D5/FRI-D7/SUN -- GREAT BASIN/PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
ROCKIES...
AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY SPREADS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN LATE THIS WEEK...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO SHIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FURTHERMORE...DECREASING
HEIGHTS ALOFT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAC NW TROUGH/ WILL ENCOURAGE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ORE/NORTHERN SIERRA AND POINTS
EAST. PREVIOUS HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL ONLY INCREASE THE
RECEPTIVENESS OF FUELS ACROSS THE REGION...SUCH THAT GREATER
LIGHTNING COVERAGE SHOULD BOOST FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS. FAVORABLE PW
VALUES AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL THUS SUPPORT SOME
DRY-THUNDER THREAT D5/FRI ACROSS MAINLY THE GREAT BASIN...SPREADING
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS
WELL...DRY AIR SETTLED OVER THE INTERIOR PAC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN WILL ENHANCE FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS. WHILE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE 40-PERCENT
/MARGINAL/ AREAS FOR WIND/LOW RH CONCERNS D6/SAT-D7/SUN.

..PICCA.. 07/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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