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000
FNUS28 KWNS 292040
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 311200Z - 061200Z

UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
NW SEWD INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY AND UPPER TROUGHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. AS
SUCH...ENHANCED WLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN DISPLACED FROM THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS WITH THE LARGE SCALE WIND-DRIVEN FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOW AS A
RESULT.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING NWD THROUGH THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE LIKELY IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN CA
AND SW ORE ON D3/FRI. CONTINUED NWD/NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE
MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY EXPANDING
TSTM THREAT INTO MOST OF ORE ON D4/SAT AND INTO W-CNTRL ID ON
D5/SUN. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD TSTM THREAT MAY BE REALIZED ON
D6/MON AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS ORE AND INTO ID. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR MUCH OF THIS TSTM
ACTIVITY TO BE DRY AND ISOLATED DRY TSTM AREAS WERE DELINEATED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN CA...THE PACIFIC NW...AND NRN ROCKIES
FROM D3/FRI THROUGH D6/MON. GIVEN THE LACK OF BETTER SYNOPTIC
FORCING...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TSTM COVERAGE WITH
REFINEMENTS LIKELY NEEDED TO THESE THREAT AREAS IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

..MOSIER.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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