Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 271923
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN PLAINS. BY D4/MON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NWRN CONUS SHOULD AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING EWD TOWARDS THE NRN
PLAINS THROUGH D5/TUE. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS
FROM D6/WED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NRN CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CONUS APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAINLY OWING TO WEAK FORECAST WINDS
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS WHERE RH VALUES WILL BECOME LOWERED MOST
AFTERNOONS.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON D3/SUN AND D4/MON ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR W TX INTO SRN/ERN NM BEHIND A SFC DRYLINE. OVER THIS REGION...
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SWLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY EXIST BOTH SUN AND
MON AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH LOWERED RH VALUES AND DRY
FUELS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG SFC WINDS IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PROBABILITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON EITHER DAY.

..GLEASON.. 05/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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