Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 302020
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VALID 011200Z - 071200Z

MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS
WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN...BUT
PERHAPS BECOMING REESTABLISHED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
SUFFICIENT SUBTROPICAL AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE COVERING PORTIONS OF
THE WRN STATES...AND MINOR IMPULSES ADVANCING THROUGH MODEST FLOW
ALOFT FLANKING THE RIDGES...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST -- AIDED BY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE DRY...WITH LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS AND ON THE EDGES OF RAIN CORES.
HOWEVER...MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY SUBSTANTIAL PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL STRONGLY ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN AREAS WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE. ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY LIMITED
STORM MOTIONS AND PW VALUES OVER 0.75 INCH COULD SUPPORT STORMS WITH
WETTING RAINS IN MANY AREAS. AS SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS
HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH ARE NOT FORECAST TO COMBINE IN
SUPPORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

..COHEN.. 07/30/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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