Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 252026
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Valid 271200Z - 031200Z

For early and middle parts of this week, sufficiently enhanced
low/midlevel flow, in association with a tightened height gradient
aloft, is expected to combine with low RH for 40-percent areas on
Day-3/Tuesday and Day-4/Wednesday from portions of the southwest
states to the central Great Basin vicinity. However, Critical areas
have not been added at this time, owing to differences among model
solutions and relatively modest low-level flow strength depicted by
multiple model solutions.

Also, a separate area of enhanced winds/low RH accompanying frontal
passage, along with some dry-thunderstorm potential, may affect
portions of north-central and eastern MT on Day-3/Tuesday. The
potential for cloud coverage to mute diurnal surface heating --
potentially inhibiting vertical mixing and diurnal RH reductions --
casts considerable doubt on the risk for Critical fire-weather
potential. This precludes probabilistic delineations.

For Day-5/Thursday through Day-8/Sunday, the combination of
differences among model solutions regarding the large-scale pattern
evolution, and multiple model solutions indicating limited low-level
flow strength amid areas of low RH relegated to portions of the
western states, precludes probabilistic delineations.

..Cohen.. 06/25/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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