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FNUS28 KWNS 192023
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

Early next week, a weak mid/upper ridge is expected to build into
portions of the Northwest and northern Rockies, in advance of a
strong upper trough that is expected to begin impacting the same
area during the mid/late week timeframe. Further south, a weak
mid/upper trough is expected to persist over portions of the
Southwest for much of the week.

...D4/Tuesday - D6/Thursday: Dry Thunderstorm potential from the
Northwest into the Northern Rockies...
A gradual increase in moisture is expected from south to north
across the Northwest and northern Rockies through midweek, before a
cold front sweeps through the area on Thursday.

On D4/Tuesday, moisture and instability are expected to become
sufficient for thunderstorm development over portions of northern CA
and southern OR. 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been
maintained over this region, given relatively limited rainfall
potential.

On D5/Wednesday, thunderstorm potential is expected to expand
northeastward into the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies.
Gradually increasing moisture will result in the potential for some
rainfall with this activity, but the dry thunderstorm potential is
sufficient to maintain 10% probabilities for portions of this
region, especially given receptive fuels across the area.

On D6/Thursday, thunderstorm potential is expected to decrease from
west to east as a cold front sweeps across the region. As on the
previous day, some rainfall will be possible, but the dry
thunderstorm potential appears sufficient to pose a fire weather
threat. 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been added from
eastern OR through ID into western MT.

...D6/Thursday - D7/Friday: Critical Wind/RH potential across the
interior Northwest and northern Rockies...
As the aforementioned cold front sweeps through the region on
Thursday, a critical wind/RH threat may develop across portions of
the Northwest and northern Rockies. At this time, the greatest
potential for critical conditions appears to be on Thursday from the
Columbia River Gorge into the lee of the Cascades across northern
OR/WA, and 40% probabilities have been included for this area. Some
potential for critical wind/RH may extend further east into the
northern Rockies into D7/Friday, but given uncertainty regarding the
southward extent of the strongest low/midlevel flow, no
probabilities have been included for that area at this time.

..Dean.. 08/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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