Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 221616
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...

...Portions of southern Texas and the southern high Plains...
12Z soundings across south TX sampled a very dry airmass with DRT,
CRP, and BRO reporting PW values of 0.23, 0.36 and 0.43 inch,
respectively. Based on SPC climatology, all of these values are near
the 10th percentile. The airmass is also quite warm, with
temperatures already in the upper 60s and low 70s. Temperatures will
likely reach the upper 70s and low 80s, with the combination of warm
temperatures and dry conditions supporting minimum RH values from
the low teens into the upper 20s.

Strong winds are also still anticipated. Current surface
observations are already reporting sustained winds over 30 mph with
gusts over 40 mph. ALI recently reported a 51 mph gust. Strong winds
will continue through the afternoon as boundary-layer mixing
continues to deepen and the pressure gradient remains tight.

The critical area was expanded slightly northward/northeastward in
deference to the near-critical conditions that are already ongoing
and the expectation for RH values to continue to drop as
temperatures rise. Elevated area was slightly expanded for similar
reasons.

..Mosier.. 01/22/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper closed low will slide east across the Gulf Coast states,
deepening as it reaches Georgia/Carolinas and a strong jet streak
rotates around its southeastern periphery. In its wake, strong
northwesterly 850-700 mb flow will overspread much of southern
Texas, as heights build across the Desert Southwest. At the surface,
a low will rapidly transit east from Arkansas to the southern
Appalachians.

...Portions of southern Texas and the southern high Plains...
High pressure building into the southwest states will combine with
the deepening low over the southeast to strengthen the surface
pressure gradient considerably across much of the southern Plains.
Northwesterly winds sustained around 30-35 mph will develop over
much of southern and central Texas, while winds will be slightly
lower over western Texas and eastern New Mexico. Deep mixing will
encourage strong gusts upwards of 50 mph, primarily across southern
Texas. Related downslope warming/drying will lead to widespread RH
values below 20-25 percent as well. Fuels will likely have dried
sufficiently to support critical fire-weather concerns over southern
Texas, especially considering the strength of the flow. To the
northwest, lower winds (20-25 mph sustained) and more marginal fuels
should keep fire-weather concerns at elevated levels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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