Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 230850
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPACT LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH THE LWR
MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO SRN
PLAINS WILL HELP ESTABLISH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD FROM THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID/LWR MS VALLEY. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BUT
RECENT RAINFALL AND GENERALLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ANY FIRE
WEATHER THREAT LOW. BY 12Z...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
FROM LWR MI SWD INTO SE LA AND THEN SWWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO DEEP S TX.

...SRN CA...
A QUICK TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES TPH-LAX GRADIENT AROUND 10 MB BY 18Z.
THIS OFFSHORE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH AT LEAST MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED NLY/NELY WINDS AROUND
25-30 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT.

FUELS ARE GENERALLY MOIST AS A RESULT OF RECENT RAINFALL. THE BULK
OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRED OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO NO MEASURED RAINFALL ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. AS A
RESULT...TODAYS OFFSHORE WINDS WILL MAINLY ACT TO PRECONDITION FUELS
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
WHERE ISOLATED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE LAYER INTRUSION BUT DECENT OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERY IS STILL EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

..MOSIER.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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