Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 101627
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 101700Z - 111200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A LARGE AREA OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS STILL
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS
FROM 15 TO 25 MPH OCCUR AMIDST MIN RH VALUES FROM THE LOW TEENS TO
THE MID 20S. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXISTS OVER
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN/W-CNTRL OK WHERE THE BEST ALIGNMENT
BETWEEN THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASED FLOW ALOFT
WILL OCCUR. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE ALSO LIKELY
HERE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S /20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE/. TO THE NE OF THIS REGION /ACROSS CNTRL OK/...CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS A BIT LOWER GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS AND MIN RH VALUES LIKELY AROUND 20 PERCENT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS ALSO EXISTS OVER PORTION OF
THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE...LARGELY BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE DURATION OF THE STRONGER WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY FUELS...A CRITICAL RISK IS STILL
WARRANTED ACROSS AREAS DELINEATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
OVERALL...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO EITHER THE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
RISK AREAS.

...MOST OF AL/GA...FL PANHANDLE...NRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
NRN/CNTRL FL TODAY WITH MIN RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20
TO 30 PERCENT. PORTIONS OF NE FL MAY SEE RH VALUES FROM 15-2O
PERCENT. SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THIS DRY ENVIRONMENT OVERLAPS WITH WLY WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH.
HOWEVER...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S /10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE/. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
ONLY MARGINAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TEMPER THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

..MOSIER.. 02/10/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0258 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BELT OF
MID-LEVEL FROM IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW WILL MIGRATE/DEVELOP
QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH A DOWNSLOPE REGIME IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  FARTHER WEST...A SURFACE HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...PROMOTING A
VERY WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...A COOL/DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...PROMOTING LOCALLY/BRIEFLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE.

...A LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON...WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL
INCREASE FROM KANSAS/SOUTHEAST COLORADO SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS.  THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW WILL PROMOTE
WARMING/DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE HEATING WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM AIR TO THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN 20-25 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA TODAY.  WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MUCH
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS IN THE AREA...A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER WEST...PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE DISPLACED FROM
THE 30-50 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA TODAY.  A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PARTS OF
THIS AREA TODAY...BUT WIND FIELDS WILL BE MORE BORDERLINE FOR
MEETING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THIS REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80F...AND DRY FUELS IN THE
REGION WILL SUPPORT RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA...AN ELEVATED AREA WILL BE MAINTAINED
PRIMARILY WHERE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS.  IN THESE AREAS...FUELS ARE
DRY AND SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE GROWTH AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY FALL
TO AS LOW AS 9-10 PERCENT.  FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY WILL LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
WITH EASTERN EXTENT.  LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR FROM OSAGE COUNTY INTO THE TULSA METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS REGION WILL BE RE-EVALUATED LATER TODAY FOR A
POSSIBLE OUTLOOK UPGRADE.

WITH TIME...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHIFTING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY COMPLICATE FIRE
SUPPRESSION EFFORTS IN THOSE AREAS TODAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONT.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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