Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FNUS73 KDLH 191443
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for NBWA...WDNR
National Weather Service Duluth MN
943 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on September 19.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast...
please call the National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Skies should clear out this morning leading to a mainly sunny day
which should promote good mixing leading to increasing southeast
winds. There is some uncertainty as to the relative humidity
values, and if skies remain clearer than currently anticipated
relative humidity values could fall lower...perhaps as low as 55
percent. Winds and mixing heights should lead to excellent smoke
dispersal by noon local time.

Tonight a wetting rain is expected at the burn site. Rain will
begin after midnight tonight and linger into Wednesday morning
with total amount around a quarter inch expected.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Temperature.........62 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................80 percent at ignition...Min 66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southeast winds around 5 mph increasing to
                    around 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 18
                    mph.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2300 ft AGL
                    increasing to 4600 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /12400 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair
                    /28000 knot-ft/ increasing to excellent
                    (71900-83300 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  64  65  68  70  72  72  71
RH..............80  79  78  73  71  66  66  68
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SE  SE  S   S   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   10  12  12  13  10
20 FT wind gust.12  12  12  14  16  17  18  16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.7 2.3 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.10  10  15  15  20  20  20  20
SDspl kt-ft/100012  17  28  48  67  76  83  72

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Showers and a chance of thunderstorms after
                    midnight. Patchy fog early in the morning.
                    Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Temperature.........Min 61.
RH..................Max 97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 10 mph decreasing to
                    around 5 mph early in the evening, then
                    increasing to around 10 mph in the late evening
                    and overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms after midnight. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL decreasing to 900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (57000 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (11100
                    knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY
Weather cov.....                            LIKELY DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  CHANCE
Temp............69     65     63     63     63     62
RH..............73     84     87     90     93     97
20 ft wind......SE 10  SE 5   SE 10  SE 10  SE 10  SE 10
20 ft wind gust.13     12     15     12     13     12
Mix hgt (ft)....3200   400    300    300    300    300
Transport wind..SE 20  SE 10  SE 15  SE 20  SE 25  SE 20
SDspl kt-ft/100057     4      4      5      5      5

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy then becoming mostly sunny. Patchy fog
                    in the morning. Showers likely and a chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. A chance of
                    showers in the morning. Chance of precipitation
                    60 percent.
Temperature.........Max 73.
RH..................Min 57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 10 mph shifting to the west
                    in the afternoon, then decreasing to around 5
                    mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL increasing to 5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4400 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (69500-102900 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE
Temp............62     63     64     66     69     71
RH..............97     97     97     84     68     57
20 ft wind......SE 10  S 10   S 10   SW 10  W 10   W 10
20 ft wind gust.       13     15     12     11     11
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    300    2500   4200   5400
Transport wind..SE 20  S 20   S 20   W 20   W 20   W 20
SDspl kt-ft/10004      4      4      47     82     103

$$
Forecaster...Joe
Requested by...Nancy Christel
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1716027.0/DLH
.EMAIL nancy.christel@wisconsin.gov



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