Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 231746
HMDMSR

Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1145 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...Precipitation...

The band of precipitation that strectched across the northern
portion of our region yesterday and last night was mainly snow for
the northern part, and rain along the southern edge in the warmer
air.  Snowfall totals were 1 to 3 inches across southern North
Dakota and northern Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin, and in the 3
to 6 inch range in western upper Michigan.

Precipitation totals averaged 0.2 to 0.4 inches in southeastern
North Dakota, from west central to to northeast Minnesota, and in
northern Wisconsin to uppper and northern lower Michigan.  Some
areas in western upper to northern upper Michgan had a 0.5 to 1
inch of precipitation by early this morning.

In the forecast... a large Winter storm will impact our region
over the next couple of days.  Precipitation today should start as
rain and switch to snow for Iowa and Minnesota tonight.  By
tomorrow morning precipitation amounts should average between 0.5
and 1 inch for much of Iowa, into southern Minnesota and along
northern Missouri, to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin,
and southern lower Michigan.  Amounts around a tenth to quarter
inch extend across the north half of Missouri to central Illinois
and northern Indiana, and across northern Wisconsin to northern
lower and upper Michigan.

Then for two day, friday morning through Saturday moring, mostly
snow will spread north and eastward with this storm in Iowa,
Minnesota, Wisconsin, to northern Michigan, and stay mostly as
showers in Indiana and southern lower Michigan.  Precipitation
amounts by Saturday morning should averages 0.5 to 1 inch in
northern Iowa to southeast Minnesota, across Wisconsin to
southern Upper Michigan and in the northern two thirds of lower
Michigan.

...Hydrologic Conditions...

Rain and snowmelt on Monday generated river rises that are
expected to exceed moderate flood levels at a few locations
in southwestern Wisconsin, at Oslo, Minnesota on the Red River
of the North, and at Cedar Falls, Iowa on the Cedar River.

Rises above bankfull and minor flood levels are likely this week
and next week in North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and
the Red River of the North due to the event earlier this week.

The rain-snow storm on tap for tomorrow could cause additional
rises above bankfull and minor flood levels in Iowa, southern
Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and lower Michigan.  A few locations
in Iowa could rise to near or above moderate flood levels due to
combination of the two weather systems.

The mainstem Mississippi River could rise above minor or moderate
flood levels in early March as all this water works its in from the
tributaries.

The NCRFC currently has 126 active forecast points.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc


Emergency Call Back List: DCG SAS ALH MAW

If no response from this list, call the DOH, SCH or HIC.


$$

...rhr/wes...





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