Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AGNT40 KWNM 231907
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
307 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

12Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGRMT THRU SHORT TERM...WITH SIG
DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO PSBLY AFFECT
THE OFFSHR LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR THE GRIDS...POPULATED WINDS
WITH 30M WINDS FROM THE 12Z GFS THRU 12Z TUE...THEN 10M WINDS
THEREAFTER.

NELY FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE NT2 WATERS TODAY AND WILL PERSIST
INTO MON...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE NT1 WATERS. RIDGE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SEWRD TUE THRU WED NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE NE US COAST. FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE NRN NT1 WATERS THU AND STALL THU NIGHT.

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE...DUE TO A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND STILL SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS.
ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL HAVE SYSTEM RECURVING INTO THE OFFSHR
WATERS...BUT GFS SLOWER AND FURTHER TO THE W THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND FURTHER
W...AS HAS MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CANADIAN
WHICH RECURVES IT E OF THE OFFSHR WATERS. UKMET...WHICH HAD IT
RECURVING JUST OFF THE SE COAST ON ITS LAST RUN...NOW HAS IT
MOVING ACROSS FL AND RECURVING IN THE NE GULF. AS HAS BEEN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...FCST CONFDC IS LOW AND CONDITIONS MAY BE SIG
HIGHER IN THE OFFSHR WATERS IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES MOVE INTO
THE REGION. FOR THIS PACKAGE...HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED GRIDS WITH
10M WINDS FROM THE 12Z GFS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE TRACK AGREED
UPON ON THE AFTERNOON NHC/WPC MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION CALL.
AGAIN...STILL WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENTGH AND TRACK OF
LOW...FCST CONFDC IS LOW ATTM.


.SEAS...WNA VERSION OF WWIII WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS.
POPULATED WAVE GRIDS WITH 12Z WNA THRU THE PERIOD. INCR WAVES BY
10 PERCENT NEAR THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT INTO MON IN THE NELY FLOW.
FOR THE EXTENDED...HAVE MAXED SEAS TO 15 FT IN THE SRN NT2
WATERS...AND REDUCED AREA OF HIGHER SEAS BY 10 PERCENT FOR WED
THRU THU NIGHT. AGAIN...IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES INDEED IMPACT
THE AREA...SEAS HEIGHTS WILL BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY FCSTD.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.