Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 191235
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
835 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

LIGHTNING DATA PRODUCTS SHOWS AREAS OF ISOLD/SCTRD SHWRS/TSTMS
OVER THE SRN NT2 WTRS...MAINLY NEAR THE SC/GA CST THIS MRNG. AT
19/06Z T.S. EDOUARD WAS AT 39.9N 38.9W. SEE NHC ADVISORY FOR THE
LATEST INFO. LATST HI-RES ASCAT PASS AT 0224Z HAD NO WINDS ABOVE
20 KT ACRS THE OFSHR WTRS. A COLD FNT EXTNDS NE TO SW ACROSS THE
SRN NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS THIS MRNG. A HI PRES RDG WILL BUILD INTO
THE WATERS N OF THE FNT LATER TODAY INTO SAT...THEN WEAKEN SAT
NIGHT. A DVLPG LOW WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA CST SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...THEN PASS NE ACROSS THE WATERS LATER SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC COAST FROM THE W LATE SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVE SE ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS MON AND MON
NIGHT. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW TUE AND
TUE NIGHT.

MODELS...THE MED RNG MDLS SEEM TO AGREE ON MOST OF THE FEATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM BUT HV A PROBLEM WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE DVLPG
LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA CST BY SUN. DEPENDING ON THE PATH
EACH MDL TAKES...THAT WILL DICTATE THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVR
THE WTRS. GEM/GFS HV BOTH KEPT THE LOW PATH OVR THE OFSHR WTRS AND
HV WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE...WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET HV BEEN
SIGNIF WEAKER BUT WERE STARTING TO TREND TOWARDS THE STGR GFS SOLN
WITH THE 00Z RUN. SINCE THE MED RNG MDLS APPR TO BE CONVERGING ON
THE STGR SOLN...WILL USE THE GFS 10M TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS.
AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST
TREND.

SEAS...BASED ON LATEST RA1 SEA HT ANALYSIS THE SEAS ARE IN THE 3
TO 5 FT RNG ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS. THE MULTIGRID WW3 MDL
INITIALIZED WELL VERSUS THE BUOY OBS...AND HAS GUD SUPPORT OVERALL
FROM THE ECMWF WAM THRU THE FCST PRD...SO THE MWW3 MDL GUIDANCE
WILL BE USED TO POPULATE THE WAVE HT GRIDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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