Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 261858
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
158 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE SFC LOW NOW JUST SE OF BUOY 44014 CONTS
TO DVLP PRETTY MUCH AS PREVLY FCSTD. AN EARLIER 1429Z HI RES
ASCAT-B PASS RETURNED SM GALE FORCE ASCD WINDS NR ITS COLD FRONT
TO THE S ACRS THE SRN NT2 WTRS. THE NEW 12Z MDLS REMAIN CONSISTENT
THAT AS THE ASCD UPR LVL TROF TRANSITIONS INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW
TONITE...THEN WOBBLES SLOWLY NE ACRS THE NT1 WTRS TUE INTO WED
THAT THE ASCD DVLPG SFC LOW WL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONITE AS IT
TRACKS NE TO NR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY TUE MORNING...THEN AS IT
BCMS VERTICALLY STACKED THE SFC LOW WL GRADLY WEAKEN AND IT DRIFTS
NE ACRS THE NT1 WTRS TUE/TUE NITE. IN RGRDS TO THE FCST TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...THE 12Z GFS REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT VS ITS PREV
RESPECTIVE RUNS. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN SPRTS THE 12Z GFS FCST TRACK
BUT INDICATES THAT IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO FAST...BUT NOT SIGLY SO.
THE 12Z GEM/UKMET ARE SMLR TO THE 12Z GFS TRACK BUT SLIGHTLY MR
PROGRESSIVE. SMLR TO ITS PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS...THE 12Z ECMWF
CONTS TO FCST THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE TRACK...ESPECLY BY LATE TUE
NITE/WED. FOR NOW WULD FAVOR THE 12Z GFS TRACK...BUT IN WULD SLOW
IT DOWN SLIGHTLY. IN RGRDS TO THE FCST STRENGTHENING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASCD GRADIENTS...BLV THE CONSISTENT 12Z GFS LOOKS
REPRESENTATIVE. THEREFORE PLAN ON POPULATING OUR SHORT TERM FCST
WIND GRIDS WITH THE 12Z GFS 30M BL WINDS THRU WED NITE...TIME
SHIFTED 3 HRS SLOWER IN DEFERENCE TO THE 12Z ECMWF/GEFS MEAN. AS A
RESULT WL CONT TO FCST MAX ASCD WINDS UP TO 50-60 KT IN THE ENELY
GRADIENT N OF THE LOW ACRS THE NT1 WTRS...BUT WULD ALSO EXPECT TO
SEE SM HURCN FORCE GUSTS IN THE ADJOINING SRN NEW ENGLD CSTL WTR
DOMAINS PER THE LATEST CWF FCST. SO SINCE THE GFS 30M BL WINDS
WERE PREVLY USED...ANTICIPATE MAKING ONLY MINOR SHORT TERM CHNGS
TO THE PREV ASCD WRNGS AND ASCD FCST CONDS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE
NEXT OFSHR FCST PACKAGE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 12Z MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGRMT THAT A HIGH
PRES RIDGE WL BUILD OFSHR THU/THU NITE WITH DMNSHG ASCD CONDS.
FOR THIS RIDGE PASSAGE WL POPULATE WITH THE WEAKER 12Z GFS 10M BL
WINDS FOR THU/THU NITE. THEN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPR LVL S/W TROF DIGGING TWDS THE COAST FRI/FRI NITE...THEN
TRANSITIONING INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW SAT/SAT NITE OVER THE NT1
WTRS...THE 12Z GLOBAL MDLS TO VARYING DEGREES FCST AN ASCD SFC LOW
TO MOV OFSHR ACRS THE NT1 WTRS FRI/FRI NITE WHL INTENSIFYG AND
PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT SE ACRS THE WTRS WITH WDSPRD ASCD
GALES DVLPG THRUT THE NT1 AND NRN/CNTRL NT2 WTRS FRI INTO SAT
NITE. OVERALL WULD FAVOR A BLEND OF THE SLIGHTLY MR PROGRESSIVE
12Z GFS/ECMWF VS THE SLOWER 12Z UKMET FOR THIS SYSTEM. SO WL
POPULATE WITH THE 12Z GFS 30M BL WINDS FOR THIS SYSTEM FRI THRU
SAT NITE...WITH SM FURTHER SUBSEQUENT EDITS IN DEFERENCE TO THE
12Z ECMWF.

.SEAS...THE SMWHT HIGHER 12Z ECMWF WAM HAS INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III. THEREFORE WL USE A 66/33 BLEND OF THE
12Z ECMWF WAM VS THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III THRU WED NITE. THEN IN THE
LONG RANGE WITH THE DIFFERSNCES BWTN THE TWO MDLS BEING NARROWER
WL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO MDLS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...LATER TONITE INTO BY LATE
MON INTO TUE IN THE STRONG ENELY GRADIENT FCST TO DVLP N OF THE
DVLPG SFC LOW...BOTH THE 12Z ESTOFS AND 12Z ETSS REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN FCSTG VERY SIG POSITIVE SURGE VALUES (NOW UP TO 3.5-4.5 FT
WHICH IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY/S RUNS) TO DVLP ALONG THE COASTS FM
NEW JERSEY INTO THE FAR SW GULF OF MAINE. THROUGH THEY ARE QUITE
SMLR...WOULD FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER 12Z ESTOFS VS THE 12Z ETSS
FOR THIS SURGE.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT INTO TUE.
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT INTO TUE.
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     STORM TONIGHT.
     GALE TUE.
     STORM TUE NIGHT.
     GALE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TODAY INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TODAY INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TODAY INTO TUE.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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