Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 032052
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
352 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

12Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGRMT THRU MOST OF THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME FRAME.
POPULATED WIND GRIDS FROM THE 12Z GFS THRU 00Z SAT...THEN
TRANSITION TO 12Z ECMWF THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST ASCAT PASSES FM 128Z AND 1428Z SHOW GALE CONDITIONS S OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND ARND ISLAND OF NFLD EXCP STORM NE OF NFLD WHILE
OVR OFSHR AND CSTL WTRS WNDS ARE LESS THEN 20 KT IN RDG CONDS EXCP
ELY FLOW NOTED S OF HATTERAS WITH HINT OF A WRM FNTL BNDRY AND
DVLPG CSTL TROF/FNT FOCUSING STRONGER WNDS ARND 20 KT IN HI RES
ASCAT-A DATA. PASSES MISS OUTER WTRS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGRMT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. FRONT
APPROACHES COAST TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHR WED. FRONT STALLS ACROSS
CNTRL NT2 WATERS WED NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL WAVE(S) MOVING NE ALONG
THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE CNTRL NT2 WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT. FINAL WAVE THEN PUSHES FNT S THRU SRN WATERS THU AND THU
NIGHT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO POPULATE WIND GRIDS WITH 10M WINDS FOR THE SLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE STABLE AND COOLER SSTS
OVER NT1 WATERS. FOR WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS DVLPG IN THE STRONG CCA BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL
POPULATE WITH THE 30M WINDS IN THE NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. MAIN
CHANGE FOR GALES AHD OF FNT IS TO ADD GALE TO NE GLF OF MAINE WITH
MORE CHANNELING CLOSE TO NOVA SCOTIA AND BAY OF FUNDY WITH MORE
ENHANCED FLOW AHD OF WRMFNT MOVG INTO THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT BASED
ON THE GFS 10M WNDS. OTRW NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GALES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH GALES EXPECTED ACROSS SRN NT1 AS WELL AS NRN AND
CNTRL NT2 WATERS IN THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR POST
FRONTAL GALES...WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES FOR THE SRN AND CNTRL NT2
WATERS THU INTO THU NIGHT...EXTENDING BRIEFLY INTO NRN NT2 ZONES S
OF 38N THU NIGHT.

FOR SAT AND SUN...ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
LATE IN DASY THEN SWEEP OFFSHORE. WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF
USING MORE STABLE 10M WINDS FOR THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET IN FAIRLY GOOD AGRMT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT. GFS DOES DVLP LOW ALONG THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH THRU AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK S OF THE AREA AND
MOVES IT INTO SRN WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE UKMET KEEP ANY LOW DVLPMT WEAK AND SUPRRESSED TO THE S THRU
THE FCST PERIOD...AND RDG BLDS OVR AREA SUN WITH LGT WNDS. WILL
TRANSITION WIND GRIDS TO 12Z ECMWF BEGINNING 00Z SAT AND CONTINUE
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

.SEAS...POPULATEED WAVE GRIDS WITH 12Z ECMWF WAM THRU 00Z WED THEN 50/50
BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF WAVE AND 12Z WNA UNTIL 00Z THU AS IT
CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE HIGHER VALUES OF THE
ECMWF WAVE AND THE LOWER VALUES OF THE WNA. AFTER 00Z THU AND
UNTIL 00Z SAT USED 12Z WNA AND AFTER THAT 12Z ECMWF WAVE AND
CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD...AS AM LEANING
TOWARDS ECMWF SOLUTION FOR WINDS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FCST.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...12Z ESTOFS SHOWING BETWEEN
A HALF A FT TO A FT SURGE ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT IN THE SLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXCP 1.5 FT IN BAY OF FUNDY...ABT HLF FT
MORE THAN ETSS..AND ESTOFS PICKS UP ON DVLPG NEG SURGE MID ATLC
CST TO SRN NEW ENGLAND BHND FNT MORE THAN ETSS LATER WED INTO WED
NIGHT.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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