Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 131345
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
845 AM EST SAT 13 FEB 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

NW GALES WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS TODAY AND WINDS AT BUOY 44008 SE OF NANTUCKET INCREASED
TO 25 G 29 KT AT 12Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO GALE BY
THIS AFTERNOOON. PREVIOUS WIND GRIDS WHICH WERE BASED ON GFS 30M
BL WINDS STILL LOOK REASONABLE OVER THE SHORT TERM. THEN WITH
NEXT WEEKS SYSTEM TRENDED FORECAST TO HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD GALES
SO USED A BLEND OF PAST TWO RUNS OF ECMWF MON THROUGH WED NIGHT
AND THEN ADJUSTED THIS BLEND UP BY 10 PERCENT. 00Z ECMWF EPS
MEAN EXHIBITED THE SAME TREND SEEN IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...THAT IS BEING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH INLAND SFC LOW
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. NOT READY TO ADJUST FORECAST TIMING
AS FAST AS SHOWN BY THIS GUIDANCE. 00Z ECMWF WAM HAS BETTER
INITIALIZATION/ NEAR TERM FORECAST THAN 00Z/06Z WW3 THIS MORNING
OVER OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.

----------------------------------------------------------------
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WX PATTERN RMNS ACTIVE THRU THE FCST PD WITH SVRL SIGNIFICANT
EVENTS. THE FIRST EVENT IS TDA INTO TNGT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW
PRES RAPIDLY MOVG NE EARLY THIS MRNG. AT 06Z THE SFC LOW WAS ABT
400 NM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY. MDL GUID IS SMLR WITH THE LOW PRES
RACING NE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TDA WHILE STRENGTHENING.
ANOTHER DVLPG LOW PRES MOVS OFFSHR INTO THE NEW ENGLAND WTRS TDA
INTO TNGT WITH A TRAILING CD FNT ENHANCING STG CAA ACRS THE
OFFSHR LATER THIS MRNG INTO TNGT. THE LOW PRES PASSES E OF THE
NEW ENGLAND TNGT. 00Z MULTIGRID WWIII LOOKS UNDERDONE WITH THE
STG CAA ACRS THE WTRS. THE 12Z ECMWF WAM WAS MUCH HIGHER AND THE
00Z ECMWF WAM CONTS TO BE HIGHER. STG HIGH PRES MOVS OFFSHR BY
LATE SUN AND SUN NGT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT EVENT WL BEGIN
AFFECTING THE SRN AREAS LATE MON AND MON NGT. MDLS STILL ARE
HAVG PROBS WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DVLPG LOW. THE 00Z GFS
AND GEM TRACKS THE DVLPG LOW ALG THE ERN SEABOARD LATE MON AND
MON NGT...MOVG THE LOW ALG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUE AND TUE
NGT. EARLIER GFS WAS NOT AS DEEP AND HAD A TRACK CLOSER TO THE E
COAST. THE UKMET IS TRACKING A DEEPER DVLPG LOW PRES FURTHER
INLAND MON INTO TUE WHICH IS SMLR TO EARLIER GUID...ALTHO IT IS
SOMEWHAT FASTER. HAV NOT SEEN ALL OF THE 00Z ECMWF THUS
FAR...BUT TRACK OF THE DVLPG LOW IS IN CLOSE AGRMT TO THE GFS BY
MON EVENING AND BY TUE MRNG. THE ECMWF IS ALSO QUICKER THAN THE
12Z. FOR THE GRIDS WL FAVOR A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND
GFS TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFS. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE
ECMWF ON A TRACK.

.SEAS...WL BE USING THE ECMWF WAM WHICH IS ABT 4 TO 7 FT HIGHER
LATER TNGT INTO SUN THAN THE MULTIGRID WWIII. BY SUN NGT INTO
MON THE WWIII AND ECMWF WAM ARE IN CLOSER AGRMT. THE AGRMT DOES
NOT LAST LONG WITH DIFFS BECOMG MORE APPARENT MON NGT INTO TUE
AS LOW PRES DVLPS INLAND AND MOVS NWD. WL BE FAVORING THE ECMWF
WAM DURING THIS PD OF TIME.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...STG OFFSHR FLOW DVLPS IN
THE NWLY GRAD FM THE MID ATLC COAST NWD ALONG THE NEW ENGLD
COAST TDA INTO SUN. THE 00Z ESTOFS CONTS TO FCST A MORE SIG NEG
SURGE THAN FCST BY THE 00Z ETSS. GFS MDL LOOKS GOOD TDA INTO SUN
AND BLV THE ESTOFS SEEMS RSNBL COMPARED TO ETSS.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK
BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS
CANYON...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE
HATTERAS...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

$$

.FORECASTER CLARK/ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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