Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 031909
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
309 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE LTST GOES IR/VIS IMGRY INDC A FRNTL SYS IN THE W ATLC...EXTENDING
FROM SE OF NOVA SCOTIA TO THE SW THRU THE NRN AND CENTRL NT2 WTRS.
ASCAT FM 15Z AND RSCAT FM 13Z INDC A LRG AREA OF 30 KT WNDS AHD
OF THE BNDRY...WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE LESS STBL ENVRMT OVR THE
GULF STRM. CRNT SFC RPRTS INDC ABT THE SAME...WITH WNDS UP TO 35
KT. THE 12Z GFS INDC A FEW GALES AHD OF THE FRNT...AND THE 12Z
NAM/GEM INDC THE SAME...ALTHO THE INTNSTY AND CVG ARE GRTR. THE
12Z ECWMF/UKMET ARE A LTL WKR...BUT STILL INDC ABT 30 KT. ATTM
FEELING GALES ARE LIKELY E OF THE OFSHR WTRS...WITH MDT TO HIGH
CONFDC. ALSO...CRNT LGTNG DENSITY PROD INDC SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ALNG THE BNDRY...WITH THE FRNTL FRCG...MAINLY IN THE LESS STABLE
ENVRMT OVR THE GLF STRM. THE PREV FCST HAD SCTRD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...SO PLANNING ON KEEPING THEM IN THE NEXT PKG.

SHORT TERM...THE 12Z GFS RMNS IN RSNBLY GUD AGRMT THRUT THE SHORT
RNG WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLN...AND INDC THE FRONT WL STALL OVR THE
AREA AND PERSIST OVR NT2 INTO SUN. THE 12Z MDLS ALL INDC A SHRTWV
TROF WL MOV THRU THE AREA SUN INTO MON...DVLP ANTHR WAVE ALNG THE
FRONT...AND PULLS THE BNDRY TO THE E. THE GFS INDC WNDS WL NEARLY
REACH GL FRC OVR THE GLF STRM...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH AND STRENGTH 0F THE H5 SHRTWV. ALSO...THE ECWMF AND
UKMET INDC 25 TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...CONFDC IS STILL LOW WITH THE
GALES...AS IT SEEMS MRGNL AT THIS POINT...SO WL KEEP OUT OF THE
NEXT FCST. ALSO...THE 12Z GFS ALSO INDC THE CRNT RDG NR 50W WL
MOV E INADVOF THE SHRTWV...BEFORE ANTHR UPR RDG BLDS OVR THE WATLC
TUE. THE 12Z GFS AGREES WELL WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ON THE SEQUENCE OF
EVENTS...AND HAS BEEN IN SOMEWHAT GUD AGRMT WITH THE ECMWF FOR
PAST TWO RUNS...ESP WITH THE DVLPMT OF ANTHR WK LOW ALONG THE TAIL
END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT OVR NT2 MON INTO TUE. THE PREV
RUNS FROM YDA HAD THE LOW JUST OFSHR...BUT NOW THE GUID HAS
SHIFTED W...AND ALL INDC IT WL RMN JUST INLND. THE GFS SEEMS RSNBL
INTO TUE AS IT AGREES WELL WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS...SO WL USE IN
THE SHORT TERM.

EXTENDED PD...THE 12Z MDLS ALL INDC ANTHR SHRTWV WL APRCH THE
COAST WED...AND DRIVE ANTHR FRNTL SYS TWD THE W ATLC. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PRGSV THAN THE REST OF THE GUID...AND IS ABT 12 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MDLS...AND INDC IT MOV THRU NT1 WED
NGT. THE REST OF THE MDLS BRING THE FRNT JUST TO THE COAST BY LATE
WED NGT...SO ATTM PLANNING ON TIME SHIFTING THE GFS TO MATCH THE
TMG OF THE REST OF THE GUID.

 SEAS...THE 12Z NWW3 IS INIT OK IN THE W ATLC...THO SLGTLY LOW
JUST E OF THE OFSHR WTR WITH THE GALES. THE MDL SEEMS RSNBL OTRW
THRUT THE PD...SO WL GENLY FLW.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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