Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
916
AGPN40 KWNM 060858
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1258 AM PST TUE DEC 6 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The most recent scatterometer pass indicates that the winds have
decreased below gale across the Washington and Oregon waters at
06z. The strongest winds are 30 kt and are occuring along the
border of the Washington and Oregon waters. Further south across
the California waters the maximum winds are shown as 25 kt west of
Point Reyes across the inner offshore waters. The next large
system that will effect the region is currently well west of the
California waters and will track northeast over the next 48 hrs
and intensify as it approaches the Washington and Oregon waters.
The forecast will become very challenging after 48 hours as all of
the global models offer widely different solutions. I tossed out
the 00z ECMWF as it is by far the weakest solution as the low
approaches the waters and keeps the system suppressed. Both the
UKMET and the GFS strengthen the system to near 980 mb by 72
hours...although the UKMET keeps the low well west of the offshore
waters...while the GFS is much more progressive and brings storm
condtions into the Washington waters. The trend of the models is
slightly further south than the previous model runs. I will
populate the wind grids using the GFS in order to maintain as much
continuity as possible from the prior forecast. I am unable to use
the ECMWF if I want to maintain any consistancy.

Seas...Both the ENP and WAM initialized OK across the region. I
will pop the wave grids using the ENP through 15z thursday...then
transition to a blend of 66 percent ENP and 33 percent WAM in
order to tamp down the seas a bit and keep them reasonable.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...n/a.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Wednesday night.
     Storm Possible Thursday into Thursday night.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Wednesday night.
     Storm Possible Thursday into Thursday night.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Wednesday night.
     Storm Possible Thursday into Thursday night.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Wednesday night.
     Storm Possible Thursday into Thursday night.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale Wednesday night.
     Gale Possible Thursday into Thursday night.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale Wednesday into Wednesday night.
     Storm Possible Thursday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Wednesday night.
     Gale Possible Thursday into Thursday night.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Wednesday into Wednesday night.
     Gale Possible Thursday into Thursday night.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Wednesday into Wednesday night.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Wednesday.

$$

.Forecaster Shaw. Ocean Prediction Center.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.