Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 120244
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
644 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED JUST N OF THE WASH OFF WTRS THIS EVE WHILE
A COLD FRONT PUSHES E TOWARD WRN PORTIONS OF WASH...OREGON...AND
NOCAL OFF WTRS. HIGH PRES REMAINS OVR THE CENTRAL CAL OFF WTRS PER
THE 00Z OPC-NCEP SFC ANALYSIS. OBS FROM THE REGION INDICATE THAT
GALES ASSOC WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE NOW MOVED N OF THE OFF WTRS.
THE 18Z NAM AND GFS MDLS ARE IN GNRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
12Z COUNTERPARTS. FOR THE EVE UPDATE WE WILL MAKE ONLY A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREV FCST...MAINLY TO FIT CONDITIONS NOTED JUST
PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE AND TO FIT A LITTLE BETTER WITH NEARBY
COASTAL WTRS WFO FCSTS...AND TAFB FCSTS. THE 18Z GFS AGREES WITH
THE 12Z CYCLE AND CONTINUES TO BRING MARGINAL GALES INTO MAINLY
NRN PZ5 WTRS SAT. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE PREV HEADLINES
FOR THE EVE UPDATE.

SEAS...SEA HTS RANGE FROM NR 18FT OVR WRN PZ5 WTRS TO 6 FT OVR SE
SOCAL OFF WTRS PER THE LATEST RP1 OPC SEA STATE ANALYSIS. LONG
PERIOD W-NW SWELLS AVERAGING AROUND 20 SECONDS OVR THE WTRS WILL
PERSIST TONITE...AND SLOWLY DECAY FRI AND FRI NITE. FOR THE EVE
UPDATE WE WILL TWEAK THE PREV GRIDS SOMEWHAT TO FIT CONDITIONS
NOTED JUST PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE...AND ALSO TO FIT NEARBY CWFS
AND TAFB FCSTS. OTW...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
EVE UPDATE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SAT IMG INDC THAT MOST OF THE CLDS ARE STILL OVR THE NRN AND
CNTRL WTRS WITH LIGHTNG STRIKES WELL W OF THE REGION. THE RADAR
CONTINUES TO HV NO INDC OF TSTMS OVR THE REGION. THE SREF GDNC HAS
LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHNCE OF TSTMS IN THE SHORT TERM. AT 18Z HGH
PRES 1023 MB OVR THE WRN TIP OF THE SRN WTRS HAS ITS RIDGE ACRS
THE SRN WTRS. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WITH SVRL CNTRS LIES TO THE NW
OF THE REGION WITH A WRM FRNT NOW ACRS THE WASH WTRS. THE PRES
GRDNT IS STILL FAIRLY RELAXED OVR THE SRN WTRS BUT JUST TIGHT OVR
THE NRN WTRS TO GENERATE MAX OBSVD WINDS TO GALE FORCE. THE LATST
ASCAT PASS AT 1713Z ONLY TOUCHED THE SRN WTRS AND HAD NO INDC OF
SNTRNGER WINDS OVR THE SRN WTRS.

AN UPPRLVL RIDGE STILL LINGERS JUST E OF THE REGION WHILE SOME
ENERGY IS EMBBD IN AN UPPRLVL LOW NW OF THE REGION BUT SE OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. IN THE SHORT TERM SOME OF THE ENRGY TO THE NW
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NRN WTRS AS THEY SHIFT E. THE UPPRLVL
RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW MORE ENRGY TO DIP FARTHER S
BUT THE MJR IMPACT ON WINDS WILL STILL BE CONFINED TO THE NRN
WTRS. LATER IN THE XTND PRD THE UPPRLVL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN AND WIPE OUT THE ENRGY OVR THE NRN WTRS THAT WILL RESULT IN
WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW GALE FORCE OVR THGE NRN WTRS. MOST OF
THE SRN WTRS WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE RIDGE AND THAT WILL KEEP
WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE THRESHOLD THRU THE FRCST PRD.

THE MDLS HAVE INITAILIZED WELL AND THEY ALL AGREE ON THE HGH PRES
TO REMAIN NEARLY STNRY NR THE SRN WTRS. THE MDLS ALSO AGRE WELL IN
THE SHORT TERM ON OTHER SMALL FEATURES BUT SOME MNR DIFFS EXIST IN
THE XTNDD PRD ON THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF WK FRNTS THAT WILL
PASS OVR THE NRN WTRS. OTHERWISE EVEN WITH THOSE SMALL DIFFS THE
GENERAL SYNOP PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AND SO WILL JUST CONTINUE
TO USE THE GFS AS MAIN GDNC. IN THE SHORT TERM HGH PRES WILL
MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVR THE SRN WTRS WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN WTRS WHERE THEY WILL DISPT. WILL KEEP GALES
IN THE NRN WTRS INTO TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE A SOUTHLY COMPONEMT SWINGING BTWN SE AND
SW TO THE N OF THE HGH OVR THE NRN WTRS AND WILL SWING BTWNN AND
NW OVR THE SRN WTRS.

.SEAS...THE HGHST SEAS ARE OVR THE N-WRN WTRS WITH PEAK TO 17 FT.
SEAS RANGE BTWN 9 AND 15 FT OVR THE NRN WTRS AND THEY RANGE BTWN 4
AND 8 FT ELSEWHERE WITH SMALLEST SEAS OVR THE FAR S. THE JASON
PASSES AT 1310Z AND 1510Z MISSED MOST OF THE REGION AND ONLY
TOCHED THE XTREME NE AND SE PARTS OF THE FRCST WTRS. THE NWW3
MULTI GRID WV MDL FITS VERY WELL WITH THE OBSVD SEAS PATTERN AND
HAS BEEN QUITE CONSSTNT IN TE PREVIOUS RUNS. NWW3 IS ALSO CLOSE TO
THE THE ECMWFWV AND SO WILL CONTINUE WITH NWW3 GDNC FOR SEAS. IN
THE SHORT TERM THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVR THE NRN WTRS BUT
UNIFORMLY BUILD TO THE SRN WTRS SO THAT SEAS WILL RANGE BTWN 12
AND 14 FT XCPT THE XTREME SRN WHERE SEAS WILL RANGE BTWN 10 AND 12
FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 7 FT IN THE XTNDD PRD THEN WILL START TO
BUILD OVR THE NW TO 20 FT OVR THE XTREME NW PART.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE SAT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE SAT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE SAT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE SAT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE SAT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS/MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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