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AGPN40 KWNM 212104
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
204 PM PDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

There is very little difference in the forecast this afternoon
than the last few forecasts. 12Z model agreement has gotten
better regarding the front moving S into the northern waters. The
ECMWF and the UKMET have been a bit further N for the past
several model runs. At this time, the GFS has moved a bit closer
to the ECMWF and UKMET, allowing more confidence with regards to
the timing of the front. The intensity has also resolved with
all global models keeping the winds just below gale. That being
said, it is possible some gale force winds will be possible. Not
confident enough to put them in as of yet, but this will need
close consideration as we approach Tue.

With fairly good model agreement, will use the 10m GFS for the
majority of the forecast with some edits. With the consistency
of the ECMWF and UKMET regarding the front in the northern waters
on Tue through Wed, will use the ECMWF from 06Z Tue through 06Z
Wed, before going back to the 10m GFS.


.SEAS...Wave models were initialized fairly well, with the
WaveWatch matching observations only slightly better. Will follow
the Wavewatch for the majority of the forecast, switching to the
WAM from 06Z Tue through 06Z Wed.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale tonight.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale today.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale tonight.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today into tonight.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale tonight.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale tonight.

.PZ6 California Waters...
     None.

$$

.Forecaster Sommerville. Ocean Prediction Center.



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