Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 310803
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
103 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

SHORT TERM...THE 06Z PRELIM OPC SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG 1028
MB HIGH PRES AREA WELL TO THE W OF THE OFF WTRS NR 42N160W. A
COLD FRONT IS MOVG SE INTO NW WASH OFF WTRS. THE FRONT IS FCST TO
MOVE SE AND REACH OREG WTRS BY TONITE...AND NRN CALIF OFF WTRS BY
LATER TUE. LOW PRES OVR THE ERN GULF OF AK WILL TRACK SE TOWARD
THE OFF WTRS TODAY THRU TUE WHILE WEAKENING. GALES ARE OCCURRING
OVR THE WRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF AK PER THE LATEST
OBS AND ASCAT PASS. THE GALES ARE FCST TO REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE
OFF WTRS THRU TUE NITE AS THE LOW SLIDES SE AND APPROACHES PZ5
WTRS FROM THE NW. THE 00Z MDL GUID IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVR THE
REGION TODAY THRU TUE. WE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 10M GFS WINDS
FOR THE EARLY AM FCST PACKAGE FROM TODAY THRU TUE NITE AS A
RESULT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR GALES REACHING NW WASH OFF
WTRS ON TUE. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS AS IF THE GALES SHOULD REMAIN N
OF THESE WTRS. WE WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST MDL
TRENDS...HOWEVER...TO SEE IF GALES MIGHT BE REQUIRED TUE.

LONG TERM...THE LOW MENTIONED ABV IS FCST TO DSIPT N OF THE WTRS
EARLY WED AS THE STRONG HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD E. A COASTAL LOW
PRES TROF WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY LTR WED THRU THU NITE ESPEC
FROM THE FAR SRN OREG COAST S TO CENTRAL CALIF. THE HIGH WILL
CONT TO BUILD OVR THE E PAC WED THRU THU NITE AND APPROACH
42N140W BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR GALES OFF THE NOCAL COAST AND FAR SRN OREG COAST BY LTR THU
AND THU NITE AS A RESULT OF THE STRENGTHING PRES GRAD OVR THE
REGION. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP MAX WINDS AT 30 KT AND CONT TO
EVALUATE FUTURE MDL GUID TO SEE IF GALES MIGHT BE REQUIRED FOR
THESE WTRS THU AFTN AND NITE. THE 00Z MDLS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVR THE REGION WED THRU THU NITE. WE WILL USE THE 00Z
10M GFS WINDS FOR THE OFF WTRS FCST FOR WED...AND THEN USE A
50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR WED NITE THRU THU
NITE AS SOME SLIGHT MDL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED AT THAT TIME.

SEAS...SEA HTS OVR THE OFF WTRS PER THE LATEST OBS AND ALTIMETER
PASSES ARE RUNNING GENERALLY WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF THE 00Z ENP
WAVE WATCH III MDL OUTPUT. AS WE ARE USING THE 10M GFS WINDS FOR
THE OFF WTRS FCST FOR TODAY THRU TUE WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
ENP WW3 MDL GUID. FOR TUE NITE THRU THU NITE AS WE USE A 50-50
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MDLS FOR WINDS...WE WILL USE A 50-50
BLEND OF THE ENP WW3 AND ECMWF WAM FOR SEA HTS. OVERALL...NO MAJOR
CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE FROM THE PAST
FEW OPC FCSTS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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