Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 021413
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
613 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE 12Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 42N141W
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING S TO 30N AND N ACROSS GULF OF AK. SEVERAL LOW
PRES WERE INLAND OVER N CA AND ALONG THE NW OREGON COAST. THE 06Z
GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 00Z GFS THROUGH ABOUT 48
HOURS. BEYOND THAT...THE 06Z IS FURTHER E AND FASTER WITH A LOW
PRES PASSING W OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS IS A
LARGE CHANGE FROM THE 00Z RUN...AND ALSO A LARGE OUTLIER COMPARED
TO THE OTHER 00Z MODELS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL NOT BE MAKING
ANY CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. WILL KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW
GALE THRESHOLD TODAY OVER THE N AND CENTRAL CA WATERS...ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE GUSTS NEAR GALE...PARTICULARY OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED
SEAS MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE MWW3/ECMWF WAM FOR THE MOST
PART...ALTHOUGH THE MODEL IS ABOUT 1 TO 3 FT TOO LOW OVER THE N CA
COASTAL WATERS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ASCATM PASS FROM 05Z INDICATES MAX WINDS MOVING OVR NRN CA WATERS
AS S/WV DIGS S ALONG THE CA CST...20-30 KT. THE OVERALL FORECAST
HASNT CHANGED MUCH OVR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A STRONG N/S RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 140W THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
MOVING E. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES WILL SITUATE ITSELF ACORSS MUCH OF
HTE PZ5 WATERS BRINGING AN END TO THE PERSISTANT NW AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A LOW PRES TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG
THE CA CST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AFTERWARDS THE TROF WILL FLUCTUATE
FROM A POSITION ALONG THE CST...TO JUST INLAND. OVERALL THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYYS...THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT THEREAFTER. THE GFS/CMC SOLN IS MUCH
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM THAN EITHER
THE UKMET OR ECMWF INDICATES. GFS FORECASTS THE HIGH PRES CETNER
TO MOVE INLAND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WHILE THE EUROPEAN
MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH RPES ACROSS PZ5 WATERS ON
DAYS 4-6. WHEN POP THE WIND GRIDS WILL INITIALLY USE THE 30M GFS
DURING THE PERIOD OF NRLY FLOW...ONCE STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES IN
AND WINDS SHIFT WILL USE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE 10M GFS.

SEAS....WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ENP WAVE GUIDANCE
IN ORDER TO GAIN THE BEST CONSENSUS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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