Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 230615
SWODY2
SPC AC 230614

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

...CAROLINAS...
A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE MS
VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ACROSS MUCH OF ERN GA
AND THE ERN CAROLINAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY
AT DAYBREAK ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST OF
NC. IN ADDITION TO THE MORNING CONVECTION...THE NAM AND GFS
SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO REDEVELOP STORMS FURTHER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS...THE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN
NC AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.


NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT CHARLESTON SC BY AFTERNOON SHOW MUCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT AND SUBSTANTIAL
SPEED SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB. DUE TO THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE
DOMINANT STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MULTICELL. THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 2.00 INCHES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WET
DOWNBURSTS.

..BROYLES.. 11/23/2014




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