Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 291702
SWODY2
SPC AC 291701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN MS...AL...AND THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS
WELL AS ACROSS NEW MEXICO. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WRN STATES. IN BETWEEN...A NWLY FLOW REGIME
WILL EXIST FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.

WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS...SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO NWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS FROM TX
TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL FORM
DURING THE DAY ACROSS LA/SRN MS/SRN AL...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS.

...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...
STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THE NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR CELLULAR
ACTIVITY AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST HAIL. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR TO OVERALL THREAT IS LACK OF CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXISTS GIVEN STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 03/29/2015




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