Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 151731
SWODY2
SPC AC 151730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR OVER EASTERN KANSAS WHERE SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD FORM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED GENERAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN INTO THE WESTERN U.S.

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH IN THE
EAST AND A RIDGE IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/DEEP SOUTH AS AN ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. TRAILING PORTION OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE N AS A WARM FRONT INTO KS AND THE OZARK
PLATEAU BY 12Z/WED.

...ERN KS AREA...
WHILE LOW-LEVEL W/SWLYS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...MODERATELY
ROBUST WAA WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID-MO VALLEY.
WITH PREDOMINATELY W/NWLYS IN THE MID-LEVELS...A PLUME OF RATHER
STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM OK/TX. LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERHAPS AIDED BY A
SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX RACING SE ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY
SHOULD YIELD A BAND OF ELEVATED STORMS BETWEEN 06-12Z. CLOUD-LAYER
SPEED SHEAR AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SMALL HAIL PRODUCTION WITH INITIAL CELLS. RELATIVELY RAPID EVOLUTION
INTO A CLUSTER MODE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND
OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK.

..GRAMS.. 09/15/2014




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