Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250324
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 12N133W MOVING W TO WNW AT
10 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW
IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT MOVES W
OR WNW AT AROUND 10 KT. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION ALONG 100W/101W N OF 09N MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 13N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W FROM 09N TO 20N MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 16N.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N123W TO 11N124W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 1009 MB LOW WAS NOTED ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW IN THE S SEMICIRCLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 10N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR
15N124W 1009 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N133W 1007 MB TO BEYOND
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
AND FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDS
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 28N132W TO 18N136W. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS IS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
MAINLY W OF 120W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS NEAR 35N108W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE INTO THE E PACIFIC
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 22N118W. AN UPPER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N105W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 11N112W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION E OF 110W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PULSE OF 20-25 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 9 FT DURING EACH PULSE .

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANOTHER PULSE OF NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT IS
EXPECTED TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI...AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEAS SHOULD MAXIMIZE
AT AROUND 8 FT WITH EACH PULSE.

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N
OF 15N W OF 115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE AN THE LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 12N130W IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 125W WITH
SEAS TO 10 FT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS
PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT NW WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN
117W AND 121W BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS.

$$
COBB


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