Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030947
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10-18N ALONG 97-98W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE S OF 13N WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS FORMED NEAR 11.5N118W ALONG A TROPICAL
WAVE AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N115.5W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 06-15N
BETWEEN 111-122W. THE CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED BUT OCEANIC AND
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE IN ABOUT
3 DAYS FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT
TRACKS WNW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ DEVELOPS NEAR 07N87W AND
CONTINUES WNW TO A NEWLY FORMED LOW PRESSURE AT 11.5N118W...
THEN THE ITCZ TURNS SW TO 08N129W...THEN W TO BEYOND 09N140W.
EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
TROPICAL LOW...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED N OF THE ITCZ FROM 08-14N BETWEEN 101-111W...AND ALONG THE
W SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
05N130W TO 13N140W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER
WITHIN 120 NM OF PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM 20-25N.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 29N129W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 19N111W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
NORTHWESTERLY 15-20 KT FLOW WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF BAJA THROUGH
LATE TUE WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
20-25 KT THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 5-
7 FT SEAS PROPAGATING W-SW AND MIXING WITH THE LONG PERIOD CROSS
EQUATORIAL SWELL. THE DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
20-25 KT AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 10-12N BETWEEN 86-
89W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. THE EVENT WILL REPEAT AGAIN ON
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

$$
NELSON


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