Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201455
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500
UTC AND IS NEAR STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER
OVER ALL BUT THE NW QUADRANT. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.
KARINA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING EASTWARD THU. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500
UTC MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 118W-
124W. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL
STORM WINDS EXTENDING OUT FROM THE CENTER TO 170 NM. ALTIMETER
PASSES AROUND 0400 UTC PROVIDED EXCELLENT SEA HEIGHT DATA FOR
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RADIUS
OF 12 FT SEAS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF OF MEXICO IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N95W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 08N94W MOVING W 10
TO 15 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA N OF 9N TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA/MEXICO BETWEEN 88W-102W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PERIPHERAL WINDS WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 8N94W
ALONG 8N104W TO 9N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 77W-
82W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 94W-107W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1026 MB HIGH IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N133W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
30N116W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
INFLUENCE OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT N AS
LOWELL MOVES POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS . THIS WILL
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA INCREASING WINDS TO STRONG BY FRI MORNING.

STRONG GAP WINDS ARE IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING AND WILL
SHIFT W TODAY BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
23N126W TO E OF T.S. LOWELL NEAR 17N110W. THIS IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 104W-112W AND FROM 19N-25N E OF 110W TO COAST OF MEXICO
INCLUDING S GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

$$
PAW



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