Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 152000
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
300 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

...Snow overspreads the area...

High impact weather potential: Lake enhanced snow off northern Lake
Huron today into this this evening.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Rather deep mid level low digging south
across northern Minnesota, with attendant (and not quite as
impressive) surface low detached a bit to the south across southeast
Minnesota. Large band of "warm" air advection driven light snow just
starting to make a push into our area , with the most significant
snow, at least from a synoptic scale perspective, off to our
southwest where forcing is maximized in northeast quadrant of 130+
knot upper level jet streak. Synoptic forcing/moisture overtopping a
still very unstable over-water thermal regime resulting in quite the
band of intense snow rotating northwest off northern Lake Michigan
into central Upper Michigan and northeast Wisconsin. Simple distance
preventing much of anything to be seen on local radars rotating
north off Lake Huron, although high resolution satellite and
Canadian observations indeed show some shallow lake processes
ongoing on the second largest Great Lake.

Despite deep amplification, large scale features remains somewhat
transient through tonight, with surface and mid level low pressure
expected to slide across southern Wisconsin into lower Michigan.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: While widespread light snow is
expected through tonight, primary forecast emphasis is on Lake Huron
enhanced snowfall rotating into eastern upper and northeast lower
Michigan.

Details: Light snow will continue to spread across the remainder of
northern Michigan this morning, with periods of light snow expected
to continue into this evening. Simple lack off deeper moisture and
displacement of best upper jet dynamics to our south will keep snow
amounts limited for most...on the order of an inch or two. However,
Lake Huron enhanced snow remains the wild card, although backing
winds and simple pattern recognition definitely supports some
heavier snow shower rotating into southeast sections of eastern
upper Michigan this morning, and into northeast lower Michigan this
afternoon and evening. Snowfall rates should be rather impressive
(over an inch per hour at times), with H8 temperatures squarely in
the favored dendritic growth zone and enhanced omega within this
layer. While snowfall rates will be impressive, duration of these
intense snows will not be given steadily backing winds. And, that
lack of duration will definitely keep snow amounts in-check, on the
order of 2 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible under
band pivot points. Borderline advisory criteria for sure, but given
those expected intense rates likely having significant impacts on
travel, will go ahead an issue an advisory for those favored areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

...Moderating temperatures...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low.

Primary Forecast Concerns: None except for somewhat low wind chills
Wednesday.

Transitional period with surface high pressure centered off to our
south and slowly rising heights aloft. This pattern will lead to
warm advection with mainly dry conditions and moderating
temperatures. In addition, a decent surface pressure gradient
between high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley and low
pressure moving across north central Canada should lead to rather
brisk conditions late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This is
expected to result in low wind chill temperatures in the single
digits below zero Tuesday night and the single digits above zero for
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Actual highs in the lower to middle
20s Tuesday and the upper 20s to middle 30s Thursday. Lows in the
single digits above zero Tuesday night and the middle teens to lower
20s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

With a fairly quiet start to the extended period, the primary
concern turns towards a potential storm system as we head into early
next week. Confidence remains low just how strong the low gets, with
everything from 985mb to 1004mb showing up in guidance. The stronger
guidance seems a bit overdone, and I wouldn`t be surprised to see it
weaken a bit in the next few runs. Track is going to be another
factor to wrestle with. More northwestern tracks will bring rain on
the front end with snow behind it, while the more southern solutions
will bring all snow. North American guidance has been trending
further south over the past couple of runs, with the Euro staying
more consistent with it`s track to the northwest. This will be a
storm worth keeping an eye on over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 120 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

Terminal forecasts continue to be challenging with quickly
changing conditions and jumping categories...particularly at APN.
Batch of light snow will continue to pivot through northern
Michigan through tonight...although weaken in time. But SE flow
and lake enhancement off Lake Huron will continue to produce
periods of IFR VSBYS at APN and eventually PLN...this afternoon
through tonight. Lake Huron snow showers will eventually end as
winds back from SE this afternoon to N by Tuesday morning.

TVC/MBL will see a mix of MVFR-VFR weather.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

Low pressure passing across the area today and tonight will
bring small craft producing gusty east winds to Lake Michigan.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ008-
     015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ018-024-
     030.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...MB



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