859
FXUS63 KAPX 230226
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1026 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Interesting afternoon/evening. Strong outflow boundary from U.P.
convection dropped southward through northern lower Michigan
producing gusts to 40 mph. Just enough kick with the boundary to
overcome our cap and unzip several narrow lines of showers/storms
behind the boundary as it progressed through the region. Last bit
of convection is moving offshore into Lake Huron down around
Harrisville/Tawas/Oscoda.

Further north...lingering boundary (warm front) is still draped
across the U.P. into northern Lake Huron and kicking off several
small pockets of showers/storms from eastern upper Michigan back
into western Lake Superior. Warm front is still slated to get
shoved up into Ontario as we go through the night...as upstream
low pressure over western Minnesota advances into Canada. Will
have to keep pops in the forecast for a few more hours for the
areas mentioned. Dry elsewhere with decreasing cloud cover
through the night. Another very mild/muggy night with lows largely
in the 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...Hot for the first day of Fall...

High Impact Weather Potential...Thunderstorms north this afternoon
and more record temps for Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Decaying area of convection over N
Wisconsin and W U.P. will make a run at the region this evening.
Convection will lose steam as it moves away from strong LLJ in the
upper midwest. Weak surface trough across the U.P. continues to
pool higher dewpoints and provide weak convergence. So this
boundary could serve to hold some of the precipitation together
through the evening.

Upper ridge and surface high remain in place through the weekend.
Dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 with temperatures near 25F above
normal Sunday. More records will fall. Nothing more than isolated
precipitation expected Saturday. Atmosphere is capped, so
although CAPE values will once again be 1500+ J/kg, will take some
a strong trigger to get anything to develop.

Records for Saturday:

    Record (Year)
GLR   83 (2004)
TVC   90 (1937)
APN   89 (1937)
ANJ   84 (1936)

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...More record high temperatures likely to fall...

No huge changes to the forecast with the record or near record heat
continuing. One subtle change is that the center of the large 500 mb
gradually drifts off to the east. The main implication to this is
that it will not be quite as hot (not that you will notice the
difference really) with 850 mb temperatures of a degree or two less
each day but still expect highs of well into the 80s to near 90.
This will likely establish new record highs for both Sunday and
Monday in at least a couple of locations. There is little chance for
rain through this time though as heights remain on the unseasonably
high side...mid and upper level moisture is sparse and the surface
pressure gradient picks up some inhibiting lake breezes from
forming.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

An approaching cold front associated with a weak area of low
pressure over the upper Great Lakes will bring increased
cloudiness throughout the day Tuesday with renewed chances of rain
Tuesday night through Wednesday. After frontal passage...the
above normal temperatures of the past several days will be gone,
with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s Wednesday.
Northwesterly winds will continue to filter in cooler temperatures
with highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s Thursday and Friday.
The pattern becomes more unsettled with a deep longwave trough
over the eastern CONUS, bringing nuisance showers to the forecast
area throughout the rest of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1026 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

largely VFR conditions anticipated tonight through Friday. Some
fog anticipated overnight...but shouldn`t become to much of an
issue with temperature/dewpoint spreads running a few to several
degrees. Westerly winds on Saturday will increase to near
sustained 10 knots with some gusts into the teens.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria early next week as
high pressure holds overhead. A few showers or possibly a
thunderstorm could develop across the UP this afternoon but mainly
dry wx and unseasonably warm temps are expected across our entire
region.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BA
NEAR TERM...KF
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...KF