000
FXUS63 KAPX 291741
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
141 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Expansive area of upslope driven low clouds will erode through early
this afternoon, only to replaced by additional clouds rotating back
west on north side of expansive upper level low centered in the Ohio
Valley. Deepest Atlantic moisture connection remains to our south
across southern Michigan (some very impressive rainfall totals in
Detroit this morning). Given expected slow movement of parent mid
level circulation, would expect this moisture feed to move little
today, suggesting that despite the increasing clouds, most of the
area should remain dry. Cannot completely rule out some afternoon
very light showers, especially down near Saginaw Bay, so will
continue to carry at least some mention of this possibility.
Otherwise, increasingly gusty northeast winds will make expected
highs in the mid and upper 60s feel just a touch cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Deep vertically-stacked low remains centered south of Michigan over
the Ohio Valley early this morning. Dry NE low level flow well north
of the low center has kept much of our CWA mostly clear thru the
night. The exception is a narrow band of lake-induced clouds
streaming into areas just west of TVC thanks to delta T`s of around
12 C. Northern edge of the moisture/cloud shield associated with the
Ohio low has reached our far SE CWA near Saginaw Bay as begins to
make very slow northward progress. Temps are holding mainly in the
50s early this morning thanks to wind speeds holding around
10 kts despite mainly clear skies.

Vertically-stacked low will remain centered south of Michigan over
the Ohio Valley for the next 24 hours. However...northern edge of
the associated moisture shield will very slowly lift NE into
Northern Lower Michigan during this time. Increasing moisture
combined with deep cyclonic flow will lead to increasing clouds as
well as increasing chances of showers from SE to NW. With the low
remaining basically stagnant over the Ohio Valley combined with
persistent dry NE low level flow...this moistening process along the
northern periphery will be rather slow and arduous. The chance of
showers will reach into areas south and east of a line from APN to
CAD by late today...creeping just a bit further into areas south and
east of a line from PZQ to TVC by late tonight. Latest short term
models show little in the way of instability today...even during
peak heating. Thus...in agreement with SPC...will not include
thunder in the forecast thru tonight.

High temps will warm back into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees this
afternoon...with the warmest temps actually across Eastern Upper and
far NW Lower Michigan away from thicker cloud cover and chances of
rain. Low temps tonight will cool back into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

The upper low that moved across the region over the last few days
has settled south across the southern Ohio Valley as advertised.
This system will remain in place today then models are in good
agreement that it will head slowly northward over the next few days.
This system will return the clouds and showers to the region Friday
(spreading in from south to north) with the showers continuing right
on into the weekend (sorry about that). The upper low will then
finally push off to our east Monday taking the showers along with
it. High pressure then builds in Monday night and holds through at
least Tuesday night. A cold front will then move through during the
mid week period but models continue to trend slower. Therefore, will
only have slight chance pops on Wednesday (which may actually
turn out to be totally dry). Better chances for showers will move
in Wednesday night into Thursday with the front. Temperatures will
be near to just a couple of degrees above normal Friday into this
weekend before trending to several degrees above normal by the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Stubborn, partially lake induced MVFR stcu field starting to
slowly dissipate. This trend should continue, although weak lake
processes will likely keep MVFR cigs in KAPN for several more
hours. Afterwards, moisture rotating in from the south will bring
an additional VFR/MVFR cloud deck overnight, with even perhaps
some light rain reaching KMBL by morning. Additional MVFR cigs and
light rain continues Friday morning. Gust northeast winds expected
through this taf cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria for much of our
nearshore areas thru Friday as tighter low level gradient along the
northern periphery of the Ohio Valley low remains overhead. Chances
of showers will increase for nearshore areas around Thunder Bay
southward to Saginaw Bay as deeper moisture lifts northward thru
Lower Michigan.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Friday for LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MLR