Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 241919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
319 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...Line of precip gradually pushes south tonight into Saturday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Chance of light mixed precip will
continue tonight into Saturday morning...mainly across far Northern
Lower Michigan.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure continues to develop to the
lee of the Rockies near the Panhandle of Oklahoma. Associated warm
front/inverted trough axis extends from this low thru Kansas...SE
Iowa into far Southern Wisconsin and Southern Lower Michigan.
Elongated area of precip continues to fire north of the trough
axis...streaming thru portions of Northern Wisconsin...Central and
Eastern Upper Michigan and the tip of the Mitt. Precip type has
varied across Eastern Upper Michigan thru much of the  day...
including freezing rain...sleet and snow. Temps have finally warmed
above freezing across this area...but some mix of wet snow and sleet
are still being reported within this area.

All short term models show this elongated area of precip will
further narrow in width as it sags slowly southward thru our CWA
during the remainder of the afternoon and this evening. By
06Z...precip chances should be mainly confined to areas along and
south of M-32 as the southern edge of a strong area of dry high
pressure over Canada pushes southward into Northern Michigan. This
will put our CWA within the squeeze play between building high
pressure into northern sections of our CWA and residual moisture and
lift north of the warm front across our southern CWA. A rather
narrow line of mixed precip will remain along the northern edge of
this precip shield where deeper moisture and lift meet the colder
air filtering in from the north along the edge of the Canadian high.
This narrow band of mixed precip should be transient thru the
night...slowly dropping south thru our CWA. Precip chances within
this narrow band should be rather low given the arrival of drier and
more stable air along the southern rim of the Canadian high. Thus...
will opt to not issue any headlines at this time...but will
certainly keep a close eye on precip type trends thru the night. Our
far southern CWA will likely remain above freezing and precip all
liquid. Precip chances...along with any mixed precip chances will
remain confined to our southern CWA on Saturday...with a resurgence
of deep moisture northward and thus increasing precip chances again
by Saturday night.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...Unsettled through early next week...

Low pressure currently centered over the Oklahoma Panhandle will
ever so slowly head northeast over the next few days. Meanwhile,
strong high pressure (1033 mb) currently centered over northern
Manitoba will ooze southward. Northern Michigan will lie along the
battle ground between these two systems. This will lead to periods
of rain, possibly even some freezing rain across eastern upper and
far northern lower Michigan. The freezing rain potential is due to
low level cold air being circulated from the high to the north
(while warm air continues at mid levels). So the main forecast
concerns revolve around pops and the potential for freezing rain.

Saturday night through Monday...More of the same really with drier
and colder air continuing to press down from the north while milder
and more moist air rides up from the south. This should lead to
periods of rain through this entire period. The freezing rain
potential at night remains an extremely tough call as surface
temperatures should be marginal (bottoming out right around the
freezing mark) and models vary on the details including the timing
and placement of the moisture. Safest way to go in this scenario is
to keep the forecast general and keep our options open. As things
hopefully become a little more clear we can attempt to be more
detailed as we get closer to each forecast period. The best chance
for freezing rain will continue to be across eastern upper and
northeast lower, especially across the higher terrain. Ice
accumulations (if any) are expected to be under a tenth of an inch.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The extended period starts out with what might be some straggling
snow Monday night/Tuesday morning, associated with wrap around
moisture behind an area of low pressure that will, by then, be
moving into New England.  But overall...Tuesday will begin a drying
trend, as moisture strips out and cooler and considerably drier air
drops down from Canada, and hangs over the great lakes into
Thursday.  The euro and GFS then diverge in their handling of the
next weather maker, which the euro has moving from OK into the Ohio
Valley (and a wetter scenario)...while the GFS keeps the low south,
moving across the gulf coast states (and thus a drier solution for
us).  So the chance pops from the blended guidance in the grids
seems prudent...and we`ll keep an eye on this in future runs.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Widespread precip and IFR conditions will slowly spread southward
back into Northern Lower Michigan this afternoon and evening
along and north of the inverted trough axis associated with low
pressure developing over the Southern Plains. Precip type will
remain mostly rain thru this evening...with some mixed precip
possible overnight into Saturday morning...especially along and
north of M-72 (for APN/PLN). Light N/NE low level winds will
shift to the E/NE on Saturday and will strengthen to 10 to 20 kts
with some higher gusts expected.


Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria tonight...but will
begin to increase on Saturday and especially Saturday night as the
pressure gradient tightens along the northern periphery of
developing low pressure to our SW. Precip chances will be mainly
confined to the Straits southward thru Lakes Michigan and Huron
tonight into Saturday...with the possibility of some mixed precip as
well. Better chances of precip will develop Saturday night into
Sunday as the low approaches the Great Lakes.




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