Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KAPX 312300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
700 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

On the latest surface weather map of interest, 1028 mb high
pressure was centered over northern Manitoba. Visible satellite
imagery showed partly to mostly cloudy skies across northern
Michigan. The main near term forecast concerns revolve around cloud
cover through Thursday.

The clouds increased across the forecast area this afternoon as
expected. Do expect a decrease in cloud cover this evening and
overnight with the loss of daytime heating. However, a short wave
evident on water vapor imagery will move through the flow aloft
which should tend to bring in more clouds. So overall partly to
mostly cloudy skies are expected. Subsidence/drying (mean 1000-500
mb rh of about 30 percent Thursday afternoon) should lead to
dissipating clouds once again. It will be seasonably cool with lows
tonight in the lower and middle 50s with highs Thursday in the
upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

High impact weather potential: patchy frost not out of the
question Thu/Fri nights.

Quiet wx expected as we barrel into the holiday weekend. High
pressure starts off Thu evening over far northern Ontario and Hudson
Bay. This will sink southward, and be largely overhead for Friday
night before easing eastward on Saturday. Any moist return flow of
relevance will still be west of the MS river thru late Saturday.
Primary wx concern is the potential for chilly nighttime temps.

Upper trof will already be downstate by Thu evening. This will be
replaced by prominent ridging dead overhead by Fri night. The sharp
increase in heights will result in substantial subsidence/drying.
Lingering cu and cu remnants will rapidly dissipate Thu evening, and
expect mostly clear skies Thu overnight all the way out to Saturday.
Large diurnal temperature swings will result, and in general will go
slightly above guidance max temps and slightly below guidance min
temps. The latter is notable, as guidance min temps are already down
around 40f at the usual northern lower MI cool spots (Grayling/PLN).
Would not take much for the absolute chilly spots (like Luzerne) to
dip into the mid 30s on either night, opening the door to some
patchy frost.

Will thus add patchy frost to a (rather small) portion of northern
lower MI. Eastern upper has a little too much warm water around it
this time of year; expect min temps to be somewhat milder there,
even in interior sections.

Min temps each night will range from near 50f in some coastal
locales, to mid/upper 30s in absolute coldest interior sections. Max
temps low/mid 70s Fri, 75-80f Sat.


Looking like a quiet start to the extended period for us, with high
pressure overhead as what is now Tropical Storm Hermine moving up
the Atlantic Coast. Temperatures will run well above normal through
the period, around 10 degrees above normal in fact. Ridging aloft
will prevail through the extended, with a strung out front and weak
shortwave moving through bringing some possible rain chances early
to mid-week, with mid-week looking to have the better chances right


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Solid VFR conditions are expected at all Northern Lower Michigan
TAF sites thru Thursday evening as high pressure continues to
build into the region. Winds will remain from the north at around
10 kts tonight...with some gusts to 20 kts on Thursday.


Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

...Choppy waters and gusty...

Gusty northerly winds continue. Lake Michigan and portions of
Lake Huron will see continued advisory winds through Thursday
evening. No rainfall over this time period, with increased lower
level clouds into tonight as temperatures get cold enough to
generate a lake effect response.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345>347.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LHZ348-349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ341.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-342-

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ322.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321.



SHORT TERM...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.