261
FXUS63 KAPX 050355
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1155 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms tonight.

- High pressure Sunday with low chances for potential frost
  Sunday night/Monday morning.

- Growing potential of strong thunderstorms across the region
  Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Amplified ridging will gradually fold over New England through
tonight as troughing lifts across the far northern Great Lakes and
southeast Canada this weekend. Forcing providing by said troughing
will support a weak cyclone that will quickly progress across the
Great Lakes tonight. Further upstream, ridging sliding from the
Rockies over the northern Great Plains will build high pressure
across most of the central CONUS on Sunday, eventually nosing into
the Great Lakes by Sunday evening.

Forecast Details:

Showers and a few storms tonight -- Warm weather with mostly/partly
sunny skies will continue across much of the area through this
afternoon before clouds begin to spread from west to east this
evening ahead of the aforementioned system. Rain chances move into
northwest lower/eastern upper after 00Z/8 PM EDT -- bust most likely
to arrive around 03Z/11 PM EDT. As previous forecaster noted,
showers are anticipated along and slightly behind the cold front
as it slides across the area late this evening and overnight.
Any activity along the boundary will have some buoyancy (~500
J/kg MUCAPE) and relatively weak effective layer shear
(25-30kts) to work with, making severe chances unlikely.
However, a few thunderstorms will be possible overnight with
small hail and gusty winds being the primary threats should any
stronger storms sustain themselves. Otherwise, showers/storms
move out Sunday morning, making for a quiet end to the weekend.
Overnight lows in the 40s and low 50s with Sunday highs in the
upper 50s to upper 60s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel split flow pattern over North America will continue to
bring a chaotic pattern of shower/storms at times for the entirety of
the long term period. Midlevel ridging currently over the northern
Rockies will breifly return quiet weather to the Great Lakes ahead
of upstream troughing.

Aformentioned trough axis will be centered over the upper midwest
at start of the forecast period. Dry and quiet weather will persist
Monday and most of Tuesday. Upstream troughing will slowly progress
from the northern Rockies to the east coast during the entire
long term period. Showers and thunderstorms will continue at
times during the work week, especially Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a boundary pushes across the Great Lakes region.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

High pressure starts the long term off with quiet weather: The
long term forecast starts out dry. High pressure will continue
precipitation free weather Monday and most of Tuesday. Clear
skies overnight Sunday could allow temperatures to rapidly drop
across interior parts of northern lower that could result in
some patchy frost. Fire weather potential on Monday remains a
concern as sinking air could cause RH`s to drop to near critical
levels, but low winds should be able to prevent any headline
concerns at this time.

Growing potential of strong thunderstorms across the region
Tuesday night: Focus of the long term period remains on Tuesday
night into Wednesday. A warm front advecting north of the
boarder will saturate the CWA pushing dew points in the upper
50s to low 60s. Potential energy for severe storms across the
region continue to grow as SPC places the southern parts of
Michigan under a 15% probability of severe weather for day 4.
Still a little too far out to specify impacts to the CWA, but
will continue to monitor the severity of the event Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

Embedded troughs and height disturbances will continue periods of
rain and thunderstorms for the rest of the work week, especially
this Thursday as weak surface low pressure moves across the Great
Lakes region. No impactful  weather is expected for the remainder of
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Band of MFR to IFR producing low clouds and showers will
continue to swing across the taf sites early this morning.
Expect conditions to quickly improve to VFR as we head later
into this morning and early afternoon. Mainly clear skies
expected into this evening. Post cold front northwest winds will
become a touch gusty today.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MSB