Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 010259
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
959 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Gradually cooler air continues to slowly bleed into the northern
lakes tonight as closed low circulation approaches. Deeper
moisture and increased forcing overnight with arrival of upper
trough axis, with modest lake response expected as h8 temperatures
drop toward -4c.  Mainly liquid near the coasts, with a rain/snow
mix into the inland areas (especially higher terrain).  Boundary
layer temperatures remain on the relatively mild side in the
middle to upper 30s, so not expecting much in the way of snow
accumulation. Will make a few tweaks to ongoing forecast but will
generally not be making any significant changes.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

...Colder air is on the way...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal. Some mixed rain and snow
showers through Thursday with little or no accumulations.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Closed upper low is situated over the
far western Great Lakes and will be slipping across northern
Michigan tonight. Associated surface low pressure is now over
the U.P. with the primary cold front arcing down through Lake
Huron. Some breaks in the cloud cover remain across northern lower
Michigan. But colder air and widespread lower cloud cover is now
inching into the western parts of the CWA. Still no appreciable
precip out there, but that will change over the next several
hours.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Precip chances and precip type tonight
and Thursday.

Colder air and thicker cloud cover will continue to rotate into
the region tonight. We should begin to see a modest Lake Michigan
response and light lake induced rain showers heading into the
evening hours as low level temps cool down to near -4C. But better
lake response and increasing precip chances will come overnight as
upstream mid level trough axis/QG-forcing/deeper moisture now
back across Minnesota/Wisconsin swings through the region. Thermal
profiles just get cold enough tonight to support mixed rain/snow
showers in the inland higher terrain, but no appreciable snow
accumulations anticipated, particularly with surface temps
remaining above freezing. Secondary cold front/surface trough
swings down through the region on Wednesday cooling temps further
and turning winds a bit more WNW by later in the day. Broad area
of lake effect showers anticipated through the day, a bit mixy for
inland areas. But no snow accumulations expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday and Friday)
Issued at 345 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

...Colder temperatures through the balance of the week...

High Impact Weather Potential...Mixed rain and snow showers into
the weekend.

A barotropic low pressure system will meander southeast of James
Bay before finally departing to the east Friday night into
Saturday morning. Deeper moisture associated with said low
pressure system will continue to produce chances of rain and snow
showers throughout the majority of this period, with best chances
remaining through Saturday morning, as synoptic support gets help
from increasingly favorable delta Ts with colder air slowly
filtering into the Great Lakes region behind the departing system.
Shallow inversion heights (3kft or less), convection not reaching
the -10C isotherm, Delta Ts only reaching around 13-15C, and
neutral QG forcing should only produce minor accumulations if any.
The best chances for any accumulations at all will be Friday
night/early Saturday morning across the higher terrain of northern
lower and eastern upper as surface temperatures decrease to just
less than freezing. Backing winds ahead of an approaching high
pressure system, along with somewhat drier air, should be enough
to diminish any lingering showers that remain during the late
afternoon to evening hours Saturday...but with cloudy/mostly
cloudy skies remaining.

Daytime temperatures will reach into the upper 30s to near 40, while
lows will drop to the upper 20s to low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

500mb pattern is in a state of transition...beginning the period
weakly zonal...but modifying as a ridge builds over the eastern half
of the CONUS...and troughing over the west. By the end of the
period...we`re seeing some of the coldest air of the year
(H8 temps of -24c) beginning to spill into the northern rockies.

Closer to home and nearer the surface...the water is awfully muddy.
A couple waves pass through the flow to bring periodic shots at
precipitation.  The main challenges will be timing...and thus P-
type.  We`ll be warm enough during the daytime that snow will have a
hard time surviving...but should the aforementioned chances occur
at night...type will be more white than wet.  Nothing appears to be
terribly impressive with these chances and most guidance can`t
agree on the timing.  So the grids will be littered with chance
pops.  The best bet might be to try to come up with a "dry
time"...which right now looks to be Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 616 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Colder air and lower clouds will overspread the region tonight
behind a cold front. Flight conditions will deteriorate to solid
MVFR tonight and persist through Wednesday. Risk of periods of IFR
cigs late tonight through Wednesday morning.

Lake effect rain showers (possibly mixed with snow at times) will
also develop off Lake Michigan tonight and impact mainly TVC/MBL
and PLN through Wednesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Lighter winds and waves anticipated through tonight. But stronger
westerly to northwesterly winds will develop for Thursday into
Friday with gusts potentially pushing small craft advisory
criteria.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
NEAR TERM...TBA
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...TBA



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