Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 221912

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
312 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Sfc high pressure was across NW Canada, as well as in the central
conus. A cold front was in between, seen slowly sinking southward
from srn Ontario and North Dakota. Not much forcing along this front
outside of weak low to mid level WAA and low level convergence, but
there is a pretty impressive thermal gradient. 50s and 60s were
common out ahead in the SW flow, with readings quickly falling into
the 20s behind it in a corridor of deeper moisture and light rain
and snow. In nrn Michigan, very dry air was overhead with tons of
sunshine. The air mass was so dry that even lake breeze convergence
couldn`t spark cumulus development. A beautiful Saturday.

The cold front will continue to drop south, reaching eastern upper
around daybreak, with cold air seeping in through the day, keeping
clouds in much of the day and temperatures from getting out of the
40s. Things will be able to warm up into the day elsewhere, more so
across the SE CWA where readings will rise into the lower and middle
60s for another great day. As far as precipitation goes, forcing
along the front will remain weak. There will be a nice shortwave
wrapping across Ontario right around daybreak, but the stronger
dynamics will be well north. Can see a period of light rain and
maybe a few snowflakes mixing in across eastern upper, before the
corridor of deeper moisture shears out with the passage of the wave.
Cloudy skies that arrive behind the front, more so in eastern upper
and far nrn lower, may actually try and clear out by later Sunday


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...Mainly quiet weather expected...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Northern Michigan is expected to sit squarely
between two systems Sunday night, one across the southeastern U.S.
and another centered near James Bay into Quebec with a cold front
extending southwestward through northern Michigan into the northern
Plains. By late Sunday night into Monday, the aforementioned cold
front effectively lifts back northward as a warm front as another
area of low pressure ramps up across the central plains. Little in
the way of sensible weather, however, aside from a few scattered
showers that may accompany the front, Sunday night into early Monday
across eastern Upper. By the end of the short term forecast period,
troughing digs across the midsection of the country with an area of
low pressure moving northeastward toward the Great Lakes.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Main challenges revolve around a roller
coaster of temperatures early this upcoming week along with low PoPs
late Sunday night into Monday across eastern Upper and again late in
the day Tuesday area-wide.

By Sunday night, developing low pressure across the plains will aid
in quickly ushering the stalled/washed out cold front across
northern Michigan back northward as a warm front with an
accompanying threat for a few light showers across eastern Upper as
it does so. Perhaps even a few snowflakes mixing in as well. Just an
increase in cloudiness elsewhere, primarily north of M-72.
Otherwise, winds gradually shift easterly, then southeasterly during
the day Monday with decreasing cloud trends and a wide range of high
temperatures. Highs Monday from near 50 degrees north to the mid-
upper 60s south of M-72/west of US-131.

An area of low pressure begins to take shape across the south-
central plains during the day Tuesday. Locally, little effects will
be felt throughout the day aside from increasing/thickening clouds
and increasing southerly winds aiding in well-above normal
temperatures. Perhaps a few scattered showers sneak into far
northern/western areas prior to sunset, otherwise much better
precipitation chances arrive Wednesday through Wednesday night as
said low pressure crosses the Great Lakes/upper Midwest. High temps
are expected to be some 5-15 degrees above normal Tuesday (climo
ranges from 53 at ANJ to 57 at TVC/HTL)...varying from 55-60 degrees
across eastern Upper to the mid 60s to low 70s south of the bridge.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Pattern continues to look active through the extended. Plenty of
uncertainty with specifics as high pressure to the north and a
series of lows out of the Plains jockey for position over the
region. As the previous shift mentioned, guidance is starting to
bring some colder air further south late in the week. This could
bring a period of snow mixing in with rain, but could also push the
track of a weekend low further south and possibly out of the
forecast area. Will see if this trend continues and adjust


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR conditions through the period with only some increase in
clouds overnight and into Sunday, associated with an arriving
cold front. Lake breezes return to light southerly tonight with
some low end LLWS expected. Winds turning NW through Sunday as the
front crosses.


Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

High pressure and dry air will drop south tonight, giving way to a
cold front Sunday, which may bring some light rain and perhaps a few
snowflakes across upper Michigan. SW winds will increase ahead of
the front tonight, with winds maybe trying to make a run at low end
advisory levels. Stability over the Great Lakes results in rather
low confidence in that scenario however. Winds turn northerly
through the day Sunday, and despite cold advection and diminishing
stability, winds will remain below advisory levels due to a weaker
pressure gradient. This front returns as a warm front Monday with
winds turning southerly and increasing through Monday night.




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