Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 011726

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
126 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Issued at 953 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Upper low centered over NRN IN this morning with surface low right
underneath. Scattered showers moving west across the CWA this
morning. 12z kapx sounding shows nearly saturated atmosphere
through 400mb...altho PWATs only 1.2". Lift this morning mainly
from upper low and isentropic ascent with upper jet on east side
of low providing some additional lift. The upper low is expected
to drift north during the day the lift should increase
some. Moisture already in place and remains so during the day. SPC
has the region in general thunder today...but sounding shows it
will be hard to get enough CAPE for convection. DTX sounding is
better but no sunshine and fcst temps around 60F are not going to
help. BUFKIT soundings also show little or no CAPE for the
afternoon as well. Otherwise...cloudy and showery kind of day.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Stagnant vertically-stacked low remains centered south of Michigan
over the Ohio Valley early this morning. Spokes of energy continue
to rotate around this low...producing waves of rain showers across
much of the Great Lakes region southward to the Ohio Valley. Some
embedded thunder continues as well...mainly south of Michigan within
better (but still limited) instability. Most recent wave of energy
and resulting shower activity to impact our CWA is on it`s way out
of our area...rotating SW away from Northern Michigan around the
northern periphery of the deep low. Less organized widely scattered
showers remain over our area in the wake of the wave thanks to deep
cyclonic flow within an increasingly moist airmass.

Deep low pressure center will finally lift northward out of the Ohio
Valley toward Michigan...reaching SE Lower Michigan by late tonight.
Waves of showers will continue to impact our CWA thru tonight. For
today...highest pops remaining across our southern CWA with
progressively diminishing pops to the north away from the low center
and associated deeper moisture. Better chances of precip will
develop late this afternoon and tonight as a stronger wave rotates
into our area. Higher pops (likely) will spread further northward
into our northern CWA as the low lifts into SE Lower Michigan. Some
weak instability (MUCAPES of 250 to 500 J/kg) develops for locations
along and south of M-32 this afternoon and tonight...thus will keep
a slight chance of thunder in the forecast for these areas during
that time period.

Temps will be cooler than yesterday thanks to thicker cloud cover
and better chances of precip. Temps will only warm a few degrees
today...with highs mainly in the lower 60s. Low temps tonight will
cool back into the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Sunday night through Monday night:

Upper level closed low will finally, hopefully, be exiting east with
maybe just some spits of light rain Sunday evening across NE lower.
Sfc high pressure will try and work it`s way into into the region
Monday, and clear out a good chunk of eastern upper and far NW lower
but deep low level moisture and sfc troughing will remain stretched
back across much of the CWA. Fog is a decent bet for those areas
that do clear, while stratus is likely not going anywhere Monday for
at least NE lower, as it gets trapped underneath an isothermal
layer/inversion. This is likely to result in a pretty cloudy day. In
fact, wouldn`t be surprised to see stratus and fog issues again
Monday night, lingering into Tuesday morning as upper ridging
settles in overhead. Winds will be near calm, and forecast soundings
suggest a pretty moist sfc based layer. Highs Monday in the middle
60s with lows both Sunday night and Monday night in the upper 40s
to low 50s.

Tuesday through Friday:

Upper ridge and sfc high pressure will get firmly placed over the
east coast Tuesday into Wednesday, while SW flow aloft develops over
nrn Michigan. High temperatures will climb into the lower 70s by
Wednesday with no precipitation expected. The next shortwave trough
and deep moisture work across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday, followed by a cold front in the Thursday night into Friday
timeframe. Timing may be off on the arrival of the cold front due to
the possibility of Hurricane Matthew roaming around the SE US coast.
Regardless, there will be chances for showers Wednesday night
through Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

LIFR conditions expected by early Sunday morning. An upper low
moving into MI will continue to lower ceilings and visibilities
especially tonight. In addition...occasional showers are expected
the rest of today into the nighttime hours. Conditions are
expected to improve Sunday midday as ceilings start rising and
visibilities become unrestricted.


Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria thru tonight
along the nearshore areas of Lake Huron thanks to persistent E/NE
winds of 15 to 25 kts along the northern periphery of the Ohio
Valley low. Waves of showers will continue to impact most of our
nearshore areas thru Sunday as deep low pressure slowly lifts
northward into SE Lower Michigan by late tonight and then slides
eastward into New England Sunday and Monday.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347>349.



LONG TERM...Dickson
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