Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 212010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
310 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A mid level trough axis was working into the region, with the
associated strong cold front now south and east of nrn Michigan.
Forcing with the trough was a bit better than expected with DPVA
working with RUC analyzed stronger upper divergence. This allowed
for some flurries to develop over nrn lower and some frontally
forced precipitation just scraping Gladwin and Arenac counties.
Otherwise the main show continues to organize itself. Strong cold
advection was allowing for temperatures to fall through this
afternoon, with NW flow lake effect snows already developed and
pushing into eastern upper Michigan. Over the next couple hours,
lake effect will get going over NW lower as the deeper, but not
impressive moisture arrives. High pressure and clear skies were seen
in the middle of the country.

Cold air continues to pour into the region tonight, maxing out
around daybreak Wednesday at -12C to -14C while gusty NW winds taper
down. Moisture is not deep within the convective BL, and inversion
heights vary amongst different data sets. Average inversion heights
are around 5kft or so, with the best of the snows looking to set up
closer to evening. This ought to be the better snow intensities, but
unidirectional flow and a tap from LAke Superior result in hi-res data
suggesting a couple of dominant bands again, while the rest of the
LES likely being quite light as moisture shallows some. Through
Wednesday, the higher pressure will work into the region with low
level winds backing more west then possibly a little south of west.
Continued shallowing moisture will make this more of just a nuisance
snow/flurries type deal with minimal accumulations. For the
remainder of this afternoon through tonight, 1 to maybe 3 inches in
the NW flow snowbelts of nrn lower, and 1 to 4 inches across eastern


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

...More Changeable Weather...

A weak short wave moving through the flow will lead to a chance for
a few light snow showers on Thanksgiving Day, otherwise quiet but
chilly holiday weather is expected. Low pressure then approaches
from the west Thursday night into Friday with strong warm air
advection out ahead of it. This will lead to increasing chances for
rain showers (mainly Friday afternoon). Temperatures will be near
normal through Thursday night then rise to a few degrees above on


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

...A Continued Roller Coaster Ride...

The up and down weather pattern is expected to continue through at
least the beginning of next week. Colder air moving in behind low
pressure moving by to the north will likely change rain over to a
period of snow early Saturday. This will be followed by a shot of
colder air and lake effect snow showers Saturday into early Sunday.
Model trends are for less available moisture but am still concerned
that we could see icy spots developing early Saturday as
temperatures drop to near freezing followed by accumulating lake
effect snow and blowing snow Saturday into Saturday night as winds
become quite gusty. Lingering lake effect should diminish Sunday due
to increasing ridging aloft. Turning milder once again Monday into
Tuesday with another chance for rain Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

A cold front has crossed all nrn lower airports with winds now
shifted more westerly and were quite gusty. Cold air was pouring
into the region and temperatures were falling. The air will get
cold enough through the afternoon for lake effect rain and snow
showers to develop, and then quickly change to just snow. CIGS
will be low end VFR for the most part, maybe going MVFR at times.
The snows are not expected to be heavy, with low snowfall rates
being dominant. Vsbys will still likely be able to fall to around
1-2sm at times, briefly sub 1sm. The snows will likely trend less
intense going through the overnight hours and into Wednesday
morning. Total snowfall around an inch, maybe two if in a stronger
snow band.


Issued at 306 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

After a strong cold front crossed the region earlier today, WNW
winds developed and remained quite gusty. For most areas across
Lake Michigan, gales were not being met based on area observations,
so will allow that headline to expire. Gales are likely to continue
through evening in Whitefish Bay and in and around the Presque Isle
Light area. Advisories through tonight all other areas. Higher
pressure and sub advisory winds expected with higher pressure
Wednesday, before winds ramp back up Wednesday night ahead of the
next cold front for potential new advisories.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ345-346-349.
     GALE WARNING until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING until 11 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.


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