Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 312313
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
613 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

...BRISK AND COLD TONIGHT...

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLEAR SOUTHEAST ZONES SHORTLY AND
CONTINUE ON ITS MERRY WAY OVERNIGHT. LIMITED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG OR EVEN JUST BEHIND SAID FRONT HAS RESULTED IN LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION (EXCEPT FOR THE ROGUE FLURRY OR TWO). A STRONG
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (1040 MB) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS OVER
MUCH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...STEADY COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH
AND DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER. IN
ADDITION...THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY (MEAN 850-700 MB RH DROPS OFF TO
A PALTRY 10 TO 20 PERCENT) SO ONLY A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES ARE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO A BIT OF A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON SHORELINES. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE AS
LOW AS THE NEGATIVE TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (MAYBE
EVEN A BIT LOWER THAN THAT) AND MAINLY THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

...COLD START TO THE WEEK/MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: COLD SUNDAY...WIND CHILLS AROUND 20
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING...TEENS BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES IN
SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WITH SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WEST...SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S./WESTERN MEXICO.  BLOCKY -WPO/-EPO LOOK TO
THINGS FARTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC WITH A LARGE UPPER VORTEX
BETWEEN ALASKA AND HAWAII...AND A SMALL CLOSED HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA.  GREAT LAKES DOMINATED BY NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW...
WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN (MONTANA/ NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA/HIGH LATITUDE WAVE EMERGING FROM ABOVE
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE INTO THE CANADIAN TERRITORIES).  AT THE SURFACE...
AN ARCTIC HIGH (1045MB) IS PRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM UPPER
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN WEST INTO NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY.  BROAD MEAN
TROUGHING THEN SETS UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
SET IN THE CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE MIDWEST SYSTEM AND ARCTIC
BRANCH FLOW TO THE NORTH...WITH THE ARCTIC RIDGE SETTING UP NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE PASSING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LEADING TO NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SUNDAY.  SURFACE RIDGING
THEN BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE ZIPS BY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH HINTS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY TUESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NORTHERN EXTENT OF SNOW SHIELDS WITH
PASSING OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY/MONDAY...POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WARM ADVECTION SNOWS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER DEFORMATION AXIS WILL SET UP ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN SUNDAY...EXACTLY WHERE THIS SETS UP WILL DETERMINE IF ANY
SNOW SNEAKS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THREAT
LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL AT THIS POINT...AS NORTHERN EXTENT OF SNOW
SHIELD WILL BE PUSHING UP AGAINST DRY NORTHEAST FLOW.  SO ONLY A
DRAMATIC SHIFT NORTHWARD OF THIS SYSTEM TRACK (AND INTO A COLD/STABLE
AIR MASS PRESSING INTO THE UPPER LAKES) WOULD THREATEN TO BRING
MEASURABLE SNOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  PROBABLY PRUDENT TO
CONTINUE WITH SOME LOW POPS SOUTH OF M-72 THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
TO COVER ANY POTENTIAL MISCHIEF.  MEANWHILE...COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
OFF LAKE HURON WILL BRING A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER INTO
NORTHEAST LOWER (INVERSION HEIGHT BELOW 900MB).  NOT A BAD SET UP
FOR SOME "FLUFFY" HIGH SNOW RATIO/SHALLOW SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NORTHEAST LOWER (USUALLY BETTER WITH A LONGER EASTERLY FETCH IN
THESE COLDER AIR MASSES)...AND HAVE BOOSTED SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS
(LIGHT...AN INCH OR TWO) ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE FROM
ROGERS CITY SOUTH.  AS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...SKIES EXPECTED
TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTH OUTSIDE OF SHALLOW LAKE CLOUDS INTO
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN ARCTIC POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR
NORTHERN LOWER...AND LOWER-MID TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER (INFLUENCED BY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON OR NORTHEAST
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER LOWER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST LOWER).  WIND CHILLS
LIKELY IN THE 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES TO START THE DAY.  COLDEST TEMPERATURES
MONDAY MORNING LIKELY TO BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND PERHAPS TIP OF
THE MITT COUNTIES WITH THE LEAST CLOUD COVER AND MOST LIKELY TO SEE
WINDS COMPLETELY DE-COUPLE OVERNIGHT...TEENS BELOW ZERO EXPECTED (AT
LEAST).

MONDAY...BUILDING LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP THINGS QUIET
SYNOPTICALLY MONDAY...BACKING WINDS WITH RIDGING WILL TURN FOCUS FOR
LAKE CLOUDS FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE MICHIGAN...IMPLICATION THAT A
NORTH-SOUTH SNOW BAND OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GET PUSHED ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOR THAT MATTER...ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY
BE ONGOING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GET TURNED INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY
AS WELL FOR A TIME.  ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS EXPECTED.  LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MONDAY
NIGHT...MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT PATCHY AND DIFFICULT TO SAY WHAT PRECIP
THREAT THERE MAY END UP BEING...BETTER CHANCE PERHAPS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER THOUGH SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE IN THE
OFFING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  MINIMAL POPS FOR
NOW.

TUESDAY...SAME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY AND
POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...SO WILL PROBABLY NOT
CHANGE THINGS MUCH FROM CURRENT FORECAST...MOSTLY GENERIC SNOW
CHANCES HITTING SOUTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
SOME HIGHER POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

TRACK FOR SYSTEM ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TRENDING
SLIGHTLY SOUTH...BUT STILL SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IN THE SNOW BELTS THROUGH
THE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...WITH MIDWEEK HIGHS IN THE TEENS
MODERATING TO THE LOW 20S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR MOST OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN
THRU SUNDAY. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT NW AND N CENTRAL LWR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS
VEER TO THE N AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. MAJORITY OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF NRN
MICHIGAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS FOR NE LWR MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR


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