Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 062054
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

OVERVIEW: SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...MAIN SHORT WAVE CENTER MOVING THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND OHIO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HARD TO PICK OUT HOWEVER WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE AND JUST SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. UPSTREAM...PARENT SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
HUDSON BAY REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STOUT SW WARM
ADVECTION FLOW UNDERWAY ACROSS THE STATE AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE/MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS JUST ABOUT TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGIONAL RADAR PLOT SHOWS SOME VERY MODEST
ELEVATED RETURNS (MOSTLY IN EASTERN UPPER) WITHIN THAT CLOUD
BAND...BUT NOTHING MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. BACK IN WISCONSIN...NO
CLOUDS WHATSOEVER ALONG THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...JUST LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND SFC OBS ACROSS THE
REGION...THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND SPECIFICALLY LOWER CLOUD
COVER...MY FIRST INCLINATION IS TO YANK POPS ALTOGETHER FOR
TONIGHT. INITIAL NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID EVENING AND MIGHT BRING A LITTLE BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE
THE "BETTER" MOISTURE AND FORCING RESIDE. THEN...WEAKENING SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT DRAGGING SOME MARGINALLY COLDER AIR BACK INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (HRRR/RAP/NAM) ALL INSIST ON
DEVELOPING A NARROW BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING WITH THAT MARGINALLY COLDER AIR/FLUX OFF THE LAKE AND
WITH SOME DEGREE OF MODEST FORCING WITHIN THE DGZ. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT THE LAKE IS GONNA HAVE TO DO A GOOD AMOUNT OF WORK
GIVEN THE DRY UPSTREAM AIR. AGAIN...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND I
WILL NOT TRIM POPS ALTOGETHER...BUT HAVE SERIOUSLY TRIMMED OUT
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

(3/7)SATURDAY...MODELS SEEM PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES IN THE MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND AROUND -10C
MOST OF THE DAY, AND WITH THE LAKES PRETTY MUCH FROZEN UP, EXCEPT
FOR C LAKE MICHIGAN, WILL EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF LES. WITH CLIPPERS HAVING THEIR ORIGINS IN A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR MASS, THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, AND THUS WILL
EXPECT THAT MINOR AMOUNTS, MAYBE LIGHT AMOUNTS WILL BE THE CASE. THE
SNOW SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION PRETTY QUICKLY, SO THAT BY THE
EVENING WILL EXPECT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD END. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/NAM12 IDEA WITH THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDINGS BEING FAIRLY
SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. SO WILL BE DRY.

(3/8)SUNDAY...THE DRYNESS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AS THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTENING AND FORCING
UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z WHEN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AGAIN AS THE MOISTURE IN
THE SOUNDINGS LOOKS A BIT SHALLOW SO THINK THAT THE AMOUNTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MINOR AS THE SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH. MOISTURE THINS OUT
OVERNIGHT, SO WILL LEAVE THE LOW CHANCE POPS, BUT AM EXPECTING THAT
AFTER 09Z AT THE LEAST THAT THE SNOW SHOULD BE FLURRIES.

(3/9)MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
MODELS DRY OUT THE LAYERS PRETTY DECENTLY, SO WILL HAVE CLEARING
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND THE RETURN FLOW WILL
EXPECT THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY GET TO THE MID-30S, AND
MAYBE EVEN SEE A RUN AT THE 40S IF THE WINDS CAN PUSH THE WARM
ADVECTION UP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

RATHER NICE TO NOT HAVE TO MENTION BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS FOR SOME SPOTS ON TUESDAY COULD CREEP INTO THE
MID 40S AS WE ENJOY A MORE PACIFIC INFLUENCED AIR MASS WITH H5 FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AND H8 TEMPS ABOVE 0. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO
OUR NORTH WILL HELP TO KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN A BIT AFTER TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE AS YOU GO FURTHER NORTH...BUT IT WILL
STILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND SOME 40S POSSIBLE
FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SOME GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON POSSIBLE PRECIP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS VERY LOW AGREEMENT ON THIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS RESPECTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH PWAT VALUES
ABOVE 75TH PERCENTILE. SOLUTIONS FOR LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF ARE
QUITE DIVERGENT RIGHT NOW...AND ALONG WITH THAT THE PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIP. NOT SOLD ON THE PRECIP AFFECTING US JUST YET...TAKING OUT
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

...GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

LOW PRESSURE IS ADVANCING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING DOWN INTO WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS
IS PULLING WARMER AIR INTO NRN MICHIGAN FOR A CHANGE. BUT GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS
SUBSIDES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT MAY PICK BACK UP JUST A BIT OUT OF
THE WEST ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY.

MEANWHILE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO HANG ON ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN THANKS TO A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS. THERE IS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SCT-BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BATCH OF
LOWER MVFR CLOUD COVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION...HELPED OUT BY THE LAKES.
HOWEVER... JUST LOOKING UPSTREAM AT OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MY
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS NOT GREAT GIVEN THE
CURRENT LACK OF LOW CLOUDS. WILL SEE WHAT LAKE MICHIGAN DOES FOR
US THIS AFTERNOON. BUT FOR NOW HAVE MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD 00Z AND A LITTLE -SN AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT...MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THOSE FORECASTS IF THINGS
DON/T GET GOING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THEN...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO NRN MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM



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