Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 271729
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
129 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Low clouds and reduced visibilities this morning are improving
quickly as drier air slowly works into northern MI. The drier air
is moving in slowly behind a cold front that moved through
earlier this morning. 12z kapx sounding shows pretty saturated
atmosphere to around 800mb this morning with low levels all above
freezing. Line of showers across the eastern UP this morning, seem
to have generated along a 850mb front in the nearly saturated low
levels.

Low pressure that moved across MI last night is over Lake Huron.
Numerous weak boundaries/wind shift lines eminate from the low.
Dynamics are pretty weak and with drier air working in expect
nothing more than a few showers, mainly confined to the UP through
the day. High clouds moving in from low in MO will keep skies
cloudy today, even if low clouds burn off. Temperatures will have
a hard time rising much today as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

...Diminishing precipitation today...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minor light icing in eastern upper
Michigan early on.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Filing stacked low pressure system is
tracking up through lower Michigan early this morning...remaining
axis of deformation precip arcs through Ontario and back across
eastern/central upper Michigan and has been diminishing through
the overnight hours. Meanwhile...still some spotty showers ongoing
across northern lower Michigan. Upstream, another wave/surface low
is moving northeastward through Oklahoma and will be tracking
through the lower lakes region tonight.

Today: Surface low continues to weaken and track eastward out of
the state. Associated weakening deformation axis/remaining light
precip slides through the region this morning...with gradually
diminishing PoPs. Some light FZRA remains a possibility in eastern
upper, although given quickly diminishing radar returns, any
icing will be minor at this point. Trailing secondary cold front
slides down through northern Michigan later in the day and there
may be another band of light showers slide through upper Michigan
later in the day into this evening. Otherwise, a good amount fog
remains out there with many locations under 1SM vsby. Not quite
enough to warrant an dense fog advisory, although an SPS
highlighting fog seems prudent.

Tonight: Upstream short wave/attending surface low will track
through the Ohio Valley...a little further south than previous
forecasts and appears that precip with this system will miss
northern Michigan. So...other than some light precip possibilities
across upper michigan...will have a dry forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

...Mainly quiet with slightly above normal temps through midweek...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Fairly zonal flow aloft is expected at the start
of the period (Tuesday) across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS,
along with Canadian high pressure sagging into the northern Great
Lakes. The only wrinkle being for a pronounced shortwave and
associated developing surface low across the Ohio Valley. At the
same time, a large scale buckle in the jet stream is evident across
the Intermountain West, which is progged to result in cyclogenesis
lee of the Rockies on Wednesday before ejecting toward the Great
Lakes Thursday into Friday. This is expected to provide the next
threat for sensible weather across northern Michigan before high
pressure returns once again next weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Aforementioned surface low across the
Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday is expected to stay well south
of the area as high pressure sags into the region from the north and
impedes much northward-moving moisture transport. Perhaps a few
sprinkles survive their way into the far southern portions of the
CWA (south of M-55); however if current trends continue...gut
feeling that we stay precipitation-free. Otherwise, northern
Michigan continues to sit on the southern periphery of high pressure
through at least midweek, ultimately leading to little in the way of
forecast concerns through Thursday. The main story will likely be
increasing sunshine and near to slightly above normal temperatures
across the area with high temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to
low 50s...some 5-10 degrees above the climatological normals of 39
at ANJ to 44 at TVC.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Main concern through the extended forecast period focuses around the
Thursday through Friday timeframe as developing low pressure across
the central/southern Plains ejects northeastward toward the Great
Lakes. Deterministic/ensemble model agreement results in a fairly
high confidence forecast with respect to precipitation arriving late
in the day Thursday/Thursday night through Friday; however, as is so
often the case at this timeframe...the details (mainly p-type and
northward extent of precipitation) remain a bit fuzzy. Worth
monitoring in future outlooks as marginal temperatures across the
northern half of the area may result in mixed precip concerns,
especially Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

IFR and occasional MVFR conditions will continue through around
midnight across northern Lower MI. Low clouds will persist through
the day and overnight. Visibilities will improve today but then
drop after sunset again. The worse visibilites will be across the
interior portions of northern Lower. At the major airports, expect
mainly MVFR conditions by daybreak Tuesday with VFR expected by
mid to late morning Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Winds/waves expected to remain below small craft advisory
criteria through Tuesday. Rather foggy conditions on the lakes
this morning. Fog will gradually dissipate as we go through the
day.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KJF
NEAR TERM...TBA
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...TBA



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