Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 281925
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Upper level ridge continues to push NE of Michigan thru Ontario this
afternoon...while deep low pressure slowly lifts NE out of the
Central Plains toward the Wrn Great Lakes region. Plenty of low
level moisture continues to stream northward ahead of this
approaching low...with sfc dwpts in the low to mid 60s across our
entire CWA. However...dynamics via the low remain well west of
Michigan attm. MUCAPES have risen to near 1500 J/kg across our CWA
this afternoon...but better instability and 850 mb theta e ridging
also remains west of Michigan in the vcnty of better dynamics around
and ahead of the low center. The result so far has been mainly
scattered showers popping up from time to time throughout the
day...with brief increases in reflectivities/possibly thunder within
these showers. Both NAM and RAP targeted the Straits and Ern Upr
Michigan for best POPs this afternoon...which seems to be working
out so far.

Little will change as we head into the evening hours...with better
dynamics...instability and 850 mb theta e remaining west of
Michigan. Diurnally enhanced convection will continue to be of the
scattered and sub-severe variety...and will diminish in areal
coverage and intensity after sunset. Expect only a chance of showers
overnight into Sunday morning during time of max diurnal low level
cooling and prior to the arrival of the low and thus better lift.

Surface low slides north of Michigan by Sunday afternoon as the
associated cold front and upper trough swing into Michigan.
Instability axis and 850 mb theta e ridge axis both develop across
Lwr Michigan during the afternoon...with MUCAPES rising to around
2500 J/kg across North Central and NE Lwr Michigan and just above
3500 J/kg across SE Lwr Michigan. Mainly speed shear develops thru
the column by this time...with wind direction nearly unidirectional
from SW in the afternoon...shifting to the west during the evening.
Certainly a few severe storms are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening...in agreement with the marginal risk per SPC`s Day 1
outlook. Damaging winds will be the primary concern. For now...will
expand likely pops to much of our CWA thru the afternoon into early
evening...and will keep a close eye on how this upcoming event
unfolds.

Expect another warm and muggy late May night across the
Northwoods...with overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s in Ern
Upr Michigan to the low to mid 60s across Nrn Lwr Michigan (cooler
near the lakeshores). Sunday will be warm and humid despite
increasing chances of precip and cloud cover. Afternoon highs will
range from the low to mid 70s in Ern Upr Michigan to the mid 70s to
lower 80s across Nrn Lwr Michigan (cooler near the lakeshores...of
course).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY....Overall a mild summer-like weather
pattern to continue over the Great Lakes through the period, with
well above normal temperatures and minimal chances for rain.

At upper levels...the strong 500MB ridge anchored over the Great
Lakes and Mid Atlantic during the weekend, will finally begin to
push east...while a 500MB trough sweeps across the region Sunday
Night. Nearly zonal flow will then settle into place over the Great
Lakes to begin the upcoming work week. 850MB temps in this pattern
will fall to around 10C Monday in the base of the upper trough
before rebounding to around 14C Tuesday. This pattern will help
continue well above normal temperatures across northern Michigan
through the period, with highs generally in the mid and upper 70S TO
Low 80S. Normal high temps for this period range from the upper 60S
over east Upper MI to the lower 70s near Houghton Lake.

At the surface...the storm system over the central Plains which had
slowly been lifting toward the Great Lakes during the weekend, will
lift north to James Bay Sunday Night and early Monday Morning. A
cold front associated with this system will push over the nrn Great
Lakes between 00z and 06z Monday. 850/700mb and 500/300mb qvectors
showing the strongest convergence with the approaching boundaries
exiting nrn mi by 06z monday. Thunderstorms will remain a concern
early Sunday evening (til 03z) acrs the CWA...as 850mb dew points
linger around 12c, 0-3km most unstable cape values linger around
2k j/kg with 850-500mb lapse rates around 6.5 c/km. Much drier and
more stable air will quickly work into the region btwn 06z and 12z
Monday, as a large area of high pressure settles over the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Pleasant conds are expected across the region Monday through Tuesday
with afternoon temps in the upper 70s, and much more seasonal dew pt
temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s (compared to upper 60
dew pts during the previous weekend). The next chance of rain will
quickly become evident Tuesday night and Wednesday, as a storm
system organizing over the Plains pushes into the Great Lakes. At
the moment, will keep any mention of pcpn out of the forecast
through 00z Wed, as model soundings show extremely dry airmass
(850mb dew pts under 0c with sfc dew pts arnd 50f) lingering over
nrn mi into Tuesday Evening.

SWR

Low pressure moving through the Northern Plains will pass to our
north late in the week. This will drag a cold front through the area
in the Thursday/Friday timeframe. Rain chances will persist into
Friday morning, with things clearing up for the weekend after the
cold front passes. This front will also help to knock high
temperatures back down to normal values Friday and through the
weekend.

MAYHEW

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 113 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Overall conditions will remain VFR thru tonight despite small
chances of showers and thunderstorms and mainly cloudy conditions.
Cigs will likely fall to MVFR on Sunday as better low level
moisture advects into the region ahead of a cold front approaching
Michigan. Better chances of showers and storms will develop after
18z on Sunday as the front sweeps thru our state. Winds will
remain from the south at around 10 kts...with gusts to 20 kts
expected thru sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria thru this
evening for portions of Nrn Lakes Michigan and Huron...with
conditions weakening overnight into Sunday morning. Winds and waves
will likely increase again Sunday afternoon and night as a cold
front sweeps thru the region. The chance of showers and storms will
continue thru tonight and Sunday morning...and will increase for
Sunday afternoon and evening with that cold front. A few strong to
severe storms are possible.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ348-349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...Mayhew/SWR
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR



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