Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 200417
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1117 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Overview: Deep short wave trough axis and loosely organized
surface low pressure stretches along the eastern edge of the
Rockies, down through west Texas and into Mexico. Active weather
already unfolding ahead of the trough across central Texas into
the central plains. Sharp short ridging and elongated surface high
pressure has developed downstream from the Great Lakes to the
Gulf of Mexico, providing yet another night of overall quiet
weather for the region. A fair amount of mid and high cloud cover
continues to inch into the region this evening due to increasing
warm advection forcing across the Midwest and western Great Lakes.
Thin line of elevated radar returns (virga) noted across northern
Minnesota into Lake Superior pushing into Canada.

Rest of tonight and through the day Monday. Other than gradually
increasing mid and high cloud cover, overall quiet weather will
persist. Temperatures tonight are already well on their way to dip
into the 20s for many spots, and have lowered forecast min temps a
bit, particularly for those normally cold inland spots. Another
warm February day on tap for Monday with highs in the 40s and 50s
and thickening mid/high clouds. Winds will be on the increase
especially in the afternoon as our next weather maker approaches
the region for tomorrow night.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight and Monday)
Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

...Clouds Increasing Tonight and Monday

High Impact Weather Potential...None

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Sfc ridge moves into the Upper Great
Lakes by this evening and the axis is east of the region during the
early morning hours Monday. High clouds will move in along the warm
front before clearing out early Monday morning. Monday, the return
flow moves into the western part of the forecast area and the
temperatures begin to warm. However, clouds begin to increase during
the afternoon as the cold front approaches.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Fog tonight and temperatures Monday.
With the melting snow, the radiational cooling tonight, it is
possible for fog. Models are showing this, but model soundings are
very dry just above the sfc. So am a little leary of the fog
potential. It may just be shallow fog. Temperatures Monday, like
today, will probably be a little warmer than the numbers have been
advertising with the 850 mb temperatures warming to between 6c and
9c and the good southerly flow ahead of the cold front. The only
thing to slow it down would be the cloud cover, but over most of the
area, think that lower 40s in E Upper is not out of the question.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

...Spring-like warmth to continue for the next several days...

High Impact Weather Potential: Decent bout of rain Monday night may
exacerbate river rises.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Elongated trough axis currently plowing
through the Intermountain West essentially spits on its journey east
early this week , with the southern portion morphing into a slow
moving closed low across southern Texas, while the northern portion
remains much more progressive, cutting across our area Monday night
into early Tuesday. Western Gulf of Mexico moisture return already
ramping up ahead of this trough axis, as noted by mid and upper 60F
dewpoints pushing through eastern and central Texas. This moisture
plume will be well tapped before closed low development shunts it
off, surging precipitable water values to near or over an inch into
our area just prior to and along trough passage. This is impressive
indeed, on the order of 3 to 5 standard deviations above the mean
for this time of year. Progressive nature of system will keep rain
amounts from getting too out of hand. However, snow melt will be
extreme with maintenance of well above normal temperatures and surge
of dewpoints well into the 40s. This will no doubt exacerbate river
rises and lead to quite a bit of ponding on area roadways.

Surface feature tied to trough passage early Tuesday is really
nothing more than a moisture delineation line, with no semblance of
any cold air behind it. An already warm airmass will be made more so
as next round of warm air advection ramps up Tuesday night into
early Wednesday. This sets the stage for a potentially very warm
Wednesday, when more than a few high temperature records may be in
danger of being broken.

Primary forecast concerns: Addressing spatial and temporal
resolution of Monday night and early Tuesday rains, as well as rain
amounts.

Details: Rain chances ramp up immediately Monday evening, with
corridor of showers spreading west/east across the area during the
overnight. Best juxtaposition of low/mid level moisture convergence
and forcing lays out across eastern Upper Michigan, where rain
amounts look to approach a half an inch. Rapid increase in cloud
cover/moisture advection looks to really put a halt on nocturnal
temperature response, so feel the threat for any type of leading
edge wintry precipitation is very minimal, and will not be included
in the forecast. Corridor of forcing/moisture convergence looks a
touch more transient and narrow south of the Mighty Mac, but still
looks like most areas will see a good quarter inch of rain or more.
Not extreme rainfall amounts for sure, but when combined with rapid
snowmelt will no doubt cause spikes in area rivers and plenty of
ponding on area roadways. Current trends using expected rainfall
totals keep rivers within their banks, but definitely something to
keep an eye on. As previous shifts have mentioned, not out of the
realm of possibility to hear a rumble of thunder or two, but
definitely no severe weather concerns.

Any lingering rains exit stage right quickly Tuesday morning, with
even strong hints we may see some clearing through the day. As
mentioned, simply no cold air to be found, with temperatures making
another run well into the 40s and lower/middle 50s. A relatively
mild Tuesday night sets the stage for what could be the warmest
period of this elongated warm-up on Wednesday. Just how warm we
reach is all dependent on timing of next fast moving wave and more
legitimate cold front racing east out of the Northern Plains. If
current timing holds for an overnight Wednesday system passage,
increased mechanical mixing along and south of developing overhead
warm front may really do a number on temperatures. Could easily see
some areas across the southeast third of the area make a run at 60
degrees (helped by the fact those areas will have largely lost all
snow cover by then). Doesn`t look quite as warm the further north
one goes, but still well above normal. Threat for next round of
showers arrives during the day Wednesday, subject to change of
course as better timing is realized.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...Yes, a potential for some
significant snow  Saturday into Sunday the result of combined
synoptic forcing and lake effects.

At upper levels, nearly zonal flow will continue across the Great
Lakes at 500mb through Friday. However, an upper low moving into
central Canada, will drop into the Great Lakes this weekend. 850mb
temps in this pattern will fluctuate between 0c and +8c over the
Great Lakes through Friday before dropping to -16c Saturday. This
pattern will generate well above normal temperatures over northern
Michigan through the end of the work week, with more seasonal
temperatures expected over the weekend.

At the surface, a couple of central Plains storm systems will lift
north and into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the period.
This will generate several episodes of rain and snow over northern
Michigan through Friday. Much colder air will filter into the region
Saturday on the back side of an exiting storm sytem, generating a
round of accumulating snow this weekend across northern Michigan.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

VFR conditions will continue tonight through the day Monday with
just mid and high cloud cover drifting through. Some spotty fog is
possible tonight, but not enough to warrant including the terminal
forecasts. But if it occurs, PLN is the most likely suspect.

Light winds tonight. Winds turn into the southeast Monday and
increase through the day with some gusts through the teens
possible Monday afternoon. Winds diminish Monday evening, but
stronger winds aloft will likely lead to LLWS conditions at all
terminal sites Monday night (beyond the current TAF period).

Low pressure will lift up through the upper Midwest and into
Canada Monday evening. Ahead of this system, cloud cover thickens
and lowers quickly Monday evening with rainfall spreading into the
region through the evening hours.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Tonight through Tuesday...tonight through Monday morning looks
relatively quiet with the winds light but increasing through the
night. Winds and waves aren`t expected to reach small craft
criteria, until the late afternoon, with Lake Superior first, then
Lakes Michigan and Huron. The small craft will continue to about
12z/Tue, but things relax and fall back below small craft criteria
by 15z/Tue.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TBA
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...TBA
MARINE...JSL



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