Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 300013
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
813 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

BROAD TROUGHINESS LINGERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE CENTER AND BATCH OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA/NW GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE A NICE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS TAKEN OFF IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND WILL BE
TRACKING SSE THROUGH WISCONSIN ALONG A MODEST INSTABILITY AXIS.

BUT ACROSS THIS CWA...IT/S ANOTHER DAY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTION
FOR THE MOST PART. THAT SAID...WE HAVE SEEN SOME SFC DEWPOINT
RECOVERY AND BUILD UP OF CU UP INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE LAST
FEW HOURS...AND SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
THAT ARE TRYING TO CREEP NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN IS CONTRACTING INLAND
AS MARINE LAYER/LAKE BREEZES MAKE THEIR DAILY INLAND PUSH. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE REVEALS UPWARD OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND
LIMITED MLCINH. THUS WITH THE INLAND PRESSING MARINE
LAYER/COLLIDING BOUNDARIES...THERE IS STILL AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS TO POP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BEST CHANCES ESSENTIALLY
ALONG THE WESTERN "SPINE" OF LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF M-72 WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE WILL BE HAD.

THEN...CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY RUN IT/S COURSE THROUGH THE
EVENING. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL ULTIMATELY SWING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH REMNANT PRECIP ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

(6/30) TUESDAY...AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA, IN THE MORNING, WILL EXPECT THAT THE
INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH SOME THE HEATING PREFRONTAL.
HOWEVER, THUNDER LOOKS TO BE A LOW CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NE LOWER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND SFC TEMPERATURE DON`T
GET MUCH ABOVE 70F WEST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-32. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE THUNDER POSSIBILITIES IN THE HIGHLANDS, WHILE THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE RAIN SHOWERS. TUESDAY
NIGHT, THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AND ONLY TRAILING SHOWERS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ALL THAT`S LEFT IN THE EVENING. WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND THE MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN, WILL EXPECT FOG TO
FORM AS THE WIND DROPS TO UNDER 5 MPH OVERNIGHT.

(7/1) WEDNESDAY...AT THIS POINT, THINK THAT THE 20 POPS FOR NE
LOWER SEEM TO BE PUSHING IT. THINK THAT THE DAY TURNS OUT DRY
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER, MORE THAN ONE MODEL IS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE SE COUNTIES WHICH COULD HELP TO GET THINGS GOING A
LITTLE. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
SQUASHES ALL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

(7/2) THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE DAY, SO WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE AND THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
BLENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT I DON/T SEE SUPPORT FOR THIS WITH EXPECTED RIDGING
SETTING UP. REMOVING THE POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW...IF SUPPORT
SHOWS ITSELF IN THE COMING DAYS WILL ADD IT BACK IN. OVERALL
SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH IS MID 70S FOR THE
U.P. AND UPPER 70S IN NORTHERN LOWER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

DIURNAL/ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING. A TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
FOR TUESDAY...WITH RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
TODAY. SOME THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIGHT TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME N/NW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS LOW MOVES EWD. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOME MVFR ACROSS NW LOWER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOME GUSTINESS/CHOPPINESS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
BUT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SPILLS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JSL



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