404
FXUS61 KBUF 081726
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
126 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and windy weather will prevail most of this afternoon, although
a few more showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the
afternoon and early evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. Dry
weather returns later tonight, then it`ll be an unsettled weather
pattern Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure
systems crossing the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
12Z Buffalo sounding has a 45 knot westerly flow at 800mb which
will partially mix to the surface this afternoon, resulting in
wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph through late afternoon. A secondary
shortwave trough will move across northern NY this afternoon,
producing another round of showers and thunderstorms which will
mainly be east of Lake Ontario, but a few may also along a
convergence zone south of Lake Ontario. Strong wind fields
aloft, but very limited instability so there`s only a marginal
risk of a few strong storms east of Lake Ontario this afternoon
and early evening.

The shortwave trough will move east of the region tonight with
lingering showers and storms ending by midnight. Associated cold
front will move across the area resulting in mostly cloudy skies
however rain-free conditions will prevail for the rest of the night.

12Z model guidance is slower and further south with a convectively
augmented wave of low pressure on Thursday. It now appears it will
remain rain-free Thursday morning, with increasing chances for
showers across Western New York late Thursday afternoon. Some
showers will likely move across the area Thursday night, but
these will be weaker producing nominal rainfall amounts. This
also will leave our area firmly in a stable northeast surface
flow, with little to no risk for thunderstorms. Following this,
Thursday will be a much cooler day with highs ranging from the
mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday through Friday night, the longwave trough will continue
to carve out over the eastern US as a series of shortwaves dig
through the Great Lakes and New England. DPVA and height falls
will maintain an area of forcing and rain downstream of the
trough axis, with a weak surface low developing in response to
the forcing aloft over PA and the Mid Atlantic. The GFS
continues to be the farthest north with this feature and would
produce widespread rain across the region. The NAM/GEM/ECMWF
have all trended farther southeast, keeping the best chance of
organized rain from the Finger Lakes into Central and Eastern
NY, with lower rain chances in our region. Trended POPS and QPF
down for Friday through Friday night, especially for areas near
the Canadian border.

Temperatures will be notably cooler Thursday through Friday as
persistent low level northeast flow funnels cooler air out of
Canada.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overall, the pattern will remain unsettled over the weekend through
early next week, although the finer synoptic scale day to day
details remain uncertain. A deep mid level trough from the Great
Lakes to New England over the weekend will gradually deamplify
early next week, although shortwaves will continue to traverse the
US/Canadian border.

Saturday should start mainly dry, with one system moving east off
the New England coast and the next moving through the central Great
Lakes. The upstream shortwave and associated surface low will then
move over or just south of the region Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night, with another round of showers. The trough axis will
gradually move off the New England coast Sunday, with rain chances
trending down from west to east. Temperatures will remain quite cool
over the weekend with clouds and cool temperatures aloft. Highs both
days will reach the 55-60 degree range in most areas.

Monday through Tuesday another shortwave will move from the Great
Lakes into New England, maintaining a chance of a few showers.
Temperatures aloft will start to recover as mid level heights
gradually rise, allowing temperatures to trend to near or a little
above average by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR flight conditions for western NY, with lingering MVFR cigs east
of Lake Ontario this afternoon. Winds gusting to 35 knots this
afternoon at KIAG, KBUF, and KROC. Another round of showers and a
few thunderstorms are possible east- southeast of Lake Ontario this
afternoon into the evening.

Increasing clouds and lowering cigs following the passage of a cold
front tonight. No precipitation, but this will lower cigs to mainly
MVFR with areas of IFR across higher terrain tonight.

Low clouds will gradually dissipate during Thursday, but mid and
high clouds will expand across the area from the south. Also a
chance of showers late in the day.

Outlook...

Thursday and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.

Saturday through Monday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate WSW winds this afternoon, particularly across Lake
Erie...where winds and wave action will be sufficient to support
Small Craft Advisories as outlined below. Elsewhere choppy...but sub-
advisory conditions can be expected.

Winds will shift to the northeast and diminish tonight, with a
general northeast flow through Thursday night. This will result in
choppy conditions along the south shores of the lakes, with
conditions approaching advisory criteria on Lake Erie.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/HSK
NEAR TERM...Apffel/HSK
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel