Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 071757
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1257 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE NICEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK...AS
UNIMPRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER WHILE
ENCOURAGING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL THEN DRIFT OVER
OUR REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
FREQUENT AND LARGELY INCONSEQUENTIAL SNOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY TREND LOWER AS WE WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
KEEPS COOLER AIR TRAPPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUBTLE DOWNSLOPING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE
PLAINS...WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

THE REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
KEEPS THE REGION DRY OVERNIGHT WITH NO REAL SOURCE OF FORCING TO
BE FOUND. A MODEST SE FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THE FORECAST ADJUSTS
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
MONDAY MORNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING
UP INTO A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES MONDAY
AND THEN GIVE WAY TO WEAK SECONDARY COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE BEHIND A WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES CONNECTING THE OLD PARENT LOW WITH THE COASTAL LOW.
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DIFFUSE FOCUS FOR
WEAK CONVERGENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON MONDAY THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN NY...WITH THIS RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO WESTERN NY AND PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN REACH THE GENESEE VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT.

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD INITIALLY ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT
A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX OR EVEN JUST RAIN AT THE ONSET ACROSS WESTERN
NY. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION SPREADS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE TRANSITION
TO BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN GOING TO ALL
SNOW FIRST...AND THE LAKE PLAINS CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LAST. THE MILD
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS
MONDAY WITH JUST A COATING POSSIBLE ON THE HILLS OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT A COATING OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND AN INCH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW TAKES SHAPE. THIS WILL LEAVE
BEHIND WEAK/DIFFUSE FORCING PRODUCING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. THE WEAK
NATURE OF THE FORCING AND STILL MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY WILL KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH SIMILAR LIGHT AMOUNTS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE LOWER LAKES WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WHILE SEVERAL
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS A KICKER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH.

THE SHARPENING OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS STEADILY RISE. GIVEN THE FORECAST
PATTERN EVOLUTION...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TIME FRAME OF BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM. IN MOST AREAS
THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE MODEST...BUT THE COMBINATION OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALSO BRING BETTER ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES
AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP TO AROUND -20C.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOME FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
HANDLING OF A TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN DROPPING THE CORE OF A FRIGID AIRMASS ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -30C. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE ON
PAR WITH THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT KBUF.
THE 00Z GFS DIRECTS THE CORE OF THE COLD THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO
NORTHERN MAINE...WITH A COLD BUT LESS EXTREME AIRMASS MOVING INTO
OUR REGION.

GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WITH A RELATIVELY
CONSERVATIVE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TEENS ON SATURDAY WITH
SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IF THE COLDER ECMWF
SOLUTION VERIFIES THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY
DOWNWARD. THE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BUT AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO
VERY DRY AND THIS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS DESPITE THE STRONG
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THESE CLOUDS MAY
IMPACT ART...BUT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT AND GRADUALLY
SCATTER OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A BENIGN PATTERN WILL
BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THESE
WILL BE WELL INTO THE VFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES TODAY...AS WAVES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

WHILE A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE BREEZES IN PLACE.

ON MONDAY...THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL FRESHEN AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...PARTICULARLY LAKE
ONTARIO. THE SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM
THOUGH...AS THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST WAVES IN CANADIAN WATERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...RSH


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