Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 281951
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AT 19Z. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS
AOB 1K FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CEILINGS WILL
RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.  SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND AROUND 30 KNOTS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







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