Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDTX 221924
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
324 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACTUALLY TRANSLATING TO SOME MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT...SEE 850-700 MB THETA-E/PW
FIELDS...WHICH HAS BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE A SWATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND MAIN PUSH OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN....PLANNING ON GOING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR
FORECAST...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...BUT CHOSE TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE
ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM...

STARTING TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.  THIS
RIDGE ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRETTY STEADY DURING
THE WEEK...BUT EVEN WITH FULL SUN THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH LOWS COOLING OFF TO AROUND 50F.  UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  THE ONLY UPCOMING CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...LIKELY ENSURING TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONLY SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY MAY ARISE WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
ID/WY...THOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL EITHER BE
ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OR BE
UNABLE TO PENETRATE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD STEADY OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE
MARINE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1250 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

//DISCUSSION...

12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY STRONG INVERSION JUST UNDER 5000
FEET. THE INVERSION HAS LOWERED FURTHER...AND CLOUDS HAVE PRETTY
MUCH MIXED OUT...SETTING US UP FOR CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THE
ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW CHANCE OF SHALLOW RADIATION FOG LATE NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SS/DT
MARINE.......SS
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.