Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 311811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
111 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

a cold front with little vertical extent was moving south across
the forecast area during the overnight hours. the cool and dry air
from the Hudson`s bay area will help to keep showers and thunderstorms
mostly to our west today. central wisconsin is mostly likely to see
any rain today.

showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely tonight across the
entire area as a warm front lifts north across wisconsin. severe
threat seems small at this point due to lackluster instability but
not impossible. showers and thunderstorms may continue through
midday wednesday until a cold front arrives during the afternoon.

temperatures today will be largely dependent on cloud cover and
how quickly the shallow cool air near the ground mixes out. lows
tonight will be held up due to clouds cover a a south winds. highs
wednesday will depend on how quickly showers and thunderstorms
exit and the extent of clearing that occurs.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Models continued to show drier air moving into Wisconsin on
Wednesday night, but it looked like the front was still in eastern
Wisconsin at 00Z Thu and there was QPF 00Z-06Z Thu. Have left a
chance for Thunderstorms in eastern Wisconsin Wednesday evening
for that reason. Have kept a slight chance for showers in northern
Wisconsin Thursday afternoon in weak cyclonic flow with moisture
wrapped around the departing system. Not all models showed QPF in
the north, but enough of them did to keep at least some mention of
showers there.

Surface high pressure and a weak upper ridge will bring a brief
period of dry weather to the area before a strengthening upper
trough digs into the region. This trough and a surface system are
forecast to move very slowly to the east, bringing chances for
showers and thunderstorms to at least some part of the forecast
area from Friday through at least Sunday. There is still a chance
for some showers on Monday in the wake of the departing surface

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

As of early afternoon, a warm front extended from central
Minnesota into far southwest Wisconsin into northern Illinois. As
the warm front lifts northward tonight, showers and thunderstorms
are expected along the front. Some of the stronger storms storms
could produce hail, gusty winds and torrential rainfall. The round
of showers and thunderstorms will exit northeast Wisconsin
Wednesday morning. Later Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will
move across northeast Wisconsin. The front may trigger a
redevelopment of storms across northeast and east-central
Wisconsin. Some of these storms could become strong or severe.




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