Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 172050
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
250 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

First round of light snow was moving across northeast Wisconsin as
of mid afternoon. The light snow should end around 6 pm along the
Lake Michigan shoreline. Accumulations should be around an inch or
less, Skies should clear fairly quickly this evening behind the
snow. This should allow temperatures to plummet, especially in our
typical cold spots later tonight as the winds go fairly light.
Temperatures should not do a complete tank as mid and high clouds
will be on the increase again late tonight into Sunday morning.

On Sunday, the main question is how far south snow will make into
northern Wisconsin. The NAM is farther north than the ECMWF,
GFS and Canadian model. Snow should arrive across the far north
late Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon. Currently
have an inch or two for this period. No precipitation is expected
south of a Merrill to Sturgeon Bay line. Only minor changes made
to the max temperatures on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Snow will be winding down Sunday evening as the 850 mb low slides
over Lake Superior, dragging a cold front south in its wake. How
far south this cold front tracks through the early part of the
new work week will play a role on the precipitation type and will
present a big forecast challenge.

There is an increasing potential of mixed precipitation with ice
accumulation becoming more of a concern. Considered a watch due
to the potential for ice accumulation but precipitation may hold
off more toward Monday night. Progs this morning suggests two main
frontal waves, Monday afternoon and then again Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Even between these two primary regions of
precipitation, lighter precipitation will likely continue to be an
impact, such as continued freezing drizzle.

High pressure dropping into the mid section of the country will
bring quieter conditions to the area with the next chance for
precipitation toward the end of the week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

First round of light snow across portions of central and north-
central Wisconsin will move into northeast Wisconsin early this
afternoon. A few hours of light to moderate snow can be expected
with this system. The accumumulating snow will end at KRHI/KAUW/KCWA
by 20z, KGRB/KATW by 22z and KMTW by 23z. Accumulations should be
around an inch or less. Skies will become clear fairly quickly
early this evening, then mid and high clouds will be on the
increase again late tonight into Sunday morning. There are still
some issues regarding snow chances across northern Wisconsin later
Sunday morning into Sunday night. Some models keep the snow north
of KRHI with other models indicating light snow amounts during
this time frame. Have added flurries to the KRHI taf site late
Sunday morning for now.

A heads up to the expected weather Monday into Tuesday. It appears
that a wintry will occur across much of central into northeast
Wisconsin. Precipitation should be mainly snow north of a Merrill
to Wausaukee line. To the south, a mix of rain, freezing rain,
sleet and very little snow is anticipated. A couple tenths of an
inch are possible across central into northeast Wisconsin. Stay
tuned!.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......Eckberg



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