Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 250454

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1054 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 250 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Primary forecast issue deals with band of showers passing
through this evening along with falling temperatures overnight.
Departure timing of the band of showers and the arrival of colder
tonight appears to have a big enough gap to allow some drying of
surfaces, but will need to be watched.

Afternoon max temps climbed well above normal this afternoon,
with a few lower to mid 60s noted over east central Wisconsin.
Observations indicate some isolated gusty winds to near 30 kts
around mid day, but overall wind gusts were in the 20 to 25 knot
range. Height 925 mb winds progged to diminish this afternoon as a
short wave trough with cold front slides over the area. Isolated
light sprinkles or virga were noted over north central wisconsin
early this afternoon, otherwise at 2 pm, the more organized band
of showers were along or near a cold front over far northwest

Cooler air on northwest winds will pour into the area tonight,
but the precipitation type will remain rain showers this evening.
Radar trends suggest the showers should depart this evening
before the colder air arrives to minimize any mix issues.
Anticipate snow showers starting late tonight far north and
lingering into Saturday morning with the colder air pouring over
Lake Superior. Satellite imagery shows a clearing gap between the
frontal clouds departing Minnesota this afternoon, and a
widespread region of strato cumulus clouds north of Minnesota and
North Dakota, which should make a run toward the northern Great
Lakes region overnight in the CAA pattern. Since light snow
showers and flurries were noted in these clouds, expanded the
flurry mention over much of northern Wisconsin through Saturday

Upper heights increase later Saturday along with surface ridging
to begin removing any strato cumulus clouds which had a chance to
spill southward over the northern Great Lakes region.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 250 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Relatively low amplitude upper flow is expected into next week,
but model differences increase with time. Other than increasing
high temperatures on Monday, have left the initial model blend
alone. The most significant short waves pass to the north of the
region and moisture is limited, so generally dry conditions are
in store late in the weekend through much of next week.

High temperatures should be well above normal Sunday through
Tuesday before cooling off somewhat in the wake of a cold front.
Highs for Wednesday through Friday should still be at least a few
degrees warmer than normal. Snow and/or rain chances are generally
confined to Thursday and Thursday night in the vicinity of a
passing cold front and mid level trough.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1054 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

BKN to OVC ceilings of 2500 to 3500 feet are expected
through 15z Saturday in most places. Skies should clear Saturday
afternoon and remain that way through Saturday night or Sunday.



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