Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 282350
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
550 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS TO
STAY NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SATURATION
ISSUES AND WEAK FORCING IN OUR AREA WILL ONLY KEEP THE CHANCE OF A
FEW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE ENERGY...AND A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN IN
THE AFTERNOON... HOWEVER SATURATION ISSUES AND QUITE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT ANY SNOW ACTIVITY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT WILL JUST MENTION FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. IT
WILL BE HARD TO GET ANY MEASURABLE SNOW...SO WILL NOT CARRY ANY
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPS LOOK TO FALL THIS EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS
THEN LOOK TO STEADY OUT AND/OR CLIMB SLOWLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI WHERE THE
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FIRST. FAR NORTHERN WI MIGHT SEE TEMPS DROP
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WON`T BE AS COLD AS
TODAY...WITH MOST SPOTS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM WAUTOMA TO IRON MOUNTAIN COULD TOUCH THE FREEZING
MARK.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REACHING
THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW NOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD COMBINE TO
PRODUCE A MODERATE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND A HALF INCH TUESDAY
AND IF THEY DO WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET A 3 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND FRESH SNOW COVER COULD PRODUCE
SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE CLIMBING
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN
VILAS COUNTY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES DUE TO
ALMOST COMPLETE ICE COVER ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A COUPLE
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
EARLY...WITH THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 5000-7000FT
SPREADING OVER THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.
MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ESB






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