Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 271756

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1256 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2016

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Wrap around moisture continues to bring light rain and drizzle to
the forecast area early this morning. This activity will slowly
end from west to east as the low responsible for the activity
pulls out of the region. The area where rain will hang around the
longest will be across the eastern areas where easterly winds will
pick up some moisture from Lake Michigan. Current radar imagery
shows this effect already in play across the lakeshore counties.

A surface high will bring drier air into the area this afternoon,
however abundant moisture will keep skies mostly cloudy across the
western Great Lakes. Another day with highs below normal will
occur as highs are only in the 40s.

The high will track east tonight, as a weak low tracks across the
northern Great Lakes region on Friday. Although rain chances will
be mainly north of the cwa on Friday, some rain could sneak in
across the extreme northern cwa. The rain chances will be
secondary to the winds expected on Friday as the pressure gradient
increases precipitously across the western Great Lakes region.
Southerly winds will increase to 25 to 30 mph across east-central
Wisconsin, with gusts of 35 to 40 mph possible along the lakeshore
with unabated flow off Lake Michigan. The southerly winds will
also bring a much warmer airmass into the western Great Lakes as
temperatures warm to well above normal levels.

Lows tonight will range from the middle 30s across the north, with
lows around 40 across the south. Highs Friday will increase to the
middle to upper 50s across the north, with highs around 60 across
central and east-central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The latest gfs ensemble mean continues to indicate that above normal
heights will prevail across the center of the conus through the
period. But shortwave impulses look to eject out of the eastern
Pacific trough, and create periodic precip chances.  The medium
range models have finally come into better agreement with the
sensible weather this weekend.  Still significant timing differences
exist early next week, but a blend of the gfs/ecmwf should mitigate
some of these differences.

Friday night through Saturday night...Low pressure will be traveling
over Lake Superior on Friday night, and drag a weak Pacific front
across the state.  Though there may be some low clouds along this
front, there is a large dry wedge in the mid-levels, which makes a
precip threat doubtful.  Will therefore remove any precip chances.
Then as a polar front drops into the region on Saturday, precip is
anticipated to redevelop with additional forcing via a right front
quad of a jet streak and mid-level fgen ahead of a weak shortwave
impulse.  It looks like the better chances of precip will occur over
central and east-central WI during the afternoon and evening. Precip
should pull out overnight as colder air invades the region from the

Rest of the forecast...High pressure briefly builds into the region
on Sunday, providing at least one day of quiet weather.  This
changes quickly on Monday when low pressure travels northwest of the
region.  A chance of precip will accompany the low, mainly over
north-central WI, but the system should bring gusty south winds on
Monday and gusty west winds on Monday night and Tuesday.  Another
brief quiet period is possible into the middle of next week.

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

There were still some showers in northeast and east central
Wisconsin at midday, but they should be moving off to the east as
a surface low near Buffalo continues to move away from the state.
Ceilings across the area were a mix of IFR and MVFR with some MVFR
visibilities in fog across far northern Wisconsin. Expect ceilings
to improve a bit today, but 12Z GRB/MPX soundings showed a strong
inversion trapping moisture below it. Expect IFR fog to develop
in central and north central Wisconsin with surface high pressure
over the area. Winds seemed like they might be a little too strong
for much fog, but too many models point to MVFR or IFR visibility
overnight so have included fog. Ceilings should become VFR and
visibility unrestricted on Friday morning.



SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......MG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.