Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 291910
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
210 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ON THE LFQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET IN NW MN AND SURGED
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME INSTABILITY AD BETTER FORCING WAS
NOTED NEAR THE LINE PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL...ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP THINGS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWED
LIKELY POPS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BASED ON THE SPEED AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT RADAR. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. .

PRECIPITATION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE AND DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND EVEN
REDEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DROPPED HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS AND NOTABLE CAA ON NORTHERLY
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PCPN CHANCES THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

A WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER HEIGHTS DO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST AND MORE THAN LIKELY THE HIT
AND MISS DIURNAL TYPE OF CONVECTION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...FRIDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BUT PROGS ALSO SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NORTH IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.




TDH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP UNTIL MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES IS NOT AS HIGH GIVEN LESS
INSTABILITY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON TSTMS IN THE
ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS FOG FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC/LOWEST
VSBYS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCLUDED IN TAFS BUT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW RAIN EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
AIRMASS...SEEMS REASONABLE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BUT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.


PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/REDEVELOP IN EASTERN TAF
SITES TUESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ALLEN


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