Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 162318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
618 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Temperatures are the main concern in the short term. Readings
across the area at 19Z mainly ranged from the mid 50s to around 60
degrees and dew points were in the 30s.

There should be enough of a surface pressure gradient overnight,
with high pressure to the south and a low to the north, to keep
winds up, preventing temperatures from tanking. Warm advection
is expected as flow aloft backs toward the west-southwest. Have
low temperatures mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s for tonight.

Few clouds are expected tonight or Tuesday. Continued warm
advection will allow temperatures to warm well above normal, with
highs in the mid to upper 60s at most locations.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Models continue to forecast upper flow that supports
warm and dry weather through at least Friday. An approaching upper
trough will bring the possibility of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday, but initially dry air and weak surface features makes
the chances small. There is a better chance of showers and storms
Sunday as a weak cold front moves through.

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. With a dry air
mass in place and increasing boundary layer winds, fog should not
be a significant issue.

Winds off the surface will increase to around 40 knots during the
mid to late evening, so will continue the mention of LLWS in the
TAFs. LLWS is expected to end from northwest to southeast across
the area from 09z-13z Tuesday.



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