000
FXUS63 KGRB 241948
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
248 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. A FEW STRANDS OF CIRRUS IS INVADING NW
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS IS CREATING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THIS WARM
FRONT SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.

TONIGHT...A JET STREAK...BETWEEN A SE DIVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.  RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THIS JET STREAK WILL SHIFT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  DESPITE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...MODELS SPIT OUT A COUPLE BANDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE...THOUGH DIFFER IN
THEIR PLACEMENT.  THE LARGEST BAND WILL BE TIED TO THE PRIMARY
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST...WHICH THE NAM/GFS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT TO THE WEST.  HOWEVER...THE 12Z MESOMODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS BAND OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.  DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL WHERE THIS BAND WILL END UP.
BUT LIGHT LOW LEVEL SE WINDS WILL SUPPLY A STEADY DIET OF DRY
AIR...SO PRECIP WILL HAVE TO FALL OUT OF A MID-DECK...AND GIVEN THE
WEAK FORCING...CANNOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LIKE THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED.  GIVEN THE LOW IMPACT AND TO MATCH UP WITH
OFFICES TO THE WEST AND NORTH...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  A LOWERING CLOUD DECK WILL KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT AND WILL GO WITH MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.  PATCHY
FROST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

SATURDAY...RIGHT REAR QUAD WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES DURING THE MORNING.  ANY SPRINKLE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING
EARLY SO IT DOES NOT SEEM WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST.  THE
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR TO RETURN TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE MORNING ONWARD WHEN SHOULD SEE DECREASING
CLOUDS. CLOUDS TO HANG LONGER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...CLOSER TO THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE.  WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE 60S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE IN BIG PICTURE WITH STRENGTHENING
RIDGE IN THE EAST WHILE TROF PERSISTS OVER THE WEST. PLEASANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOME MODEL DISCONNECT WITH HOW
HANDLE SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY EXITING WESTERN TROF INTO THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN LAKES LATE THIS HOLIDAY PERIOD. HAVE STAYED TOWARD
DRIER EC/GFS...WITH IDEA THAT HIGH WILL KEEP PCPN TO OUR SOUTHWEST
SUN AND MON. NAM APPEARS THE OUTLIER...TOO STRONG AND FAST. LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
NORTHEAST WI...WITH PATCHY FROST OVER PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST WI.

TROF DEEPENS WEST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK PUMPING UP RIDGE JUST TO
OUR EAST. THIS TO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND
INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS...OR THROUGH STATE.
AGAIN SOME DISPARITY ON HOW FAR NORTH FRONT WILL GO...WITH EC
LINGERING IT OVER NORTHERN WI. COULD BE LOOKING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER NEXT WED/THU WITH POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PW`S INCREASE TO 1.5.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EVEN ANY SPRINKLES
THAT DEVELOP LATE TNGT/EARLY SAT SHOULD BE FALLING OUT OF A MIDDLE
CLD DECK WITH HIGH BASES. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC