Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 272019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
319 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2016

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

There were still some showers across Door County at 19Z in
moisture wrapped around a departing surface low. Expect this to
end/exit by 00Z. A surface high and approaching mid level ridge
should help to keep the forecast area dry overnight, with just
patchy fog in central Wisconsin. 12Z soundings from the region
showed moisture trapped below an inversion. Clouds should keep
temperatures from dropping like a rock after sunset so lows
should not get much colder than the mid 30s tonight.

Winds will increase on Friday in return flow around the departing
surface high and ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Models kept moisture and clouds around for the daytime on Friday
so that will keep temperatures down a little. Still, there is
enough warm advection for most locations to reach highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s, around 10 degrees above normal. Short wave
energy passing north of the state, combined with isentropic lift
from strong warm advection will likely produce afternoon showers,
but they should stay north of the forecast area. Winds will
increase considerably during the day on Friday as the surface
pressure gradient increases and winds just a few thousand feet
above the surface reach the 40 to 60 knot range.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Mild weather looks to continue for the next week and
a half, as the upper air pattern resembles more of a late summer
look than fall.

An upper trough will move through Saturday, along with a surface
cold front. There`s not much moisture to work with, but probably
enough dynamics to produce showers as it moves across the area.
Then a surface high moves in from the northern Plains and should
provide dry and cooler weather Sunday.

Strong low pressure moving from North Dakota towards James Bay
will bring a chance of showers Monday and Monday night along with
breezy conditions. Fast nearly zonal flow with several short waves
will make for some showers at times during the middle and end of
next week, but not much in the way of significant precipitation.

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

There were still some showers in northeast and east central
Wisconsin at midday, but they should be moving off to the east as
a surface low near Buffalo continues to move away from the state.
Ceilings across the area were a mix of IFR and MVFR with some MVFR
visibilities in fog across far northern Wisconsin. Expect ceilings
to improve a bit today, but 12Z GRB/MPX soundings showed a strong
inversion trapping moisture below it. Expect IFR fog to develop
in central and north central Wisconsin with surface high pressure
over the area. Winds seemed like they might be a little too strong
for much fog, but too many models point to MVFR or IFR visibility
overnight so have included fog. Ceilings should become VFR and
visibility unrestricted on Friday morning.

Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Winds and waves will increase Friday as a low pressure system
tracks across the northern Great Lakes and upper level winds
increase considerably. Wind gusts are expected to reach gale force
Friday afternoon through Friday evening.




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