Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 290659
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
259 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

A few showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across
central and eastern Lower Michigan. Some of the storms could be
strong with hail and gusty winds. Fair and less humid weather will
move in on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Severe threat is fairly low this afternoon and appears to be
restricted to areas east of GRR and AZO as diurnal heating
combines with sfc convergence from weak cold front moving through.
Shear profiles show about 25 to 30 knots of 0 to 6 km shear with
MUCAPE around 1000 j/kg. Hail and gusty winds are possible with
the stronger updrafts across the eastern zones this afternoon.

Storms should be ending in the evening as the front clears the
forecast area and drier air advects in and dew points fall back
into the 50s. Memorial Day is looking good and the dry weather
continues into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Seasonably warm weather will continue Tuesday night through midweek
with a small chance for showers Tuesday night followed by a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday through
Thursday.

The showers and storms will develop out ahead of an approaching cold
front and in association with an upper level low pressure system
that will drop southeast into the Great Lakes region Wednesday night
and Thursday.

A somewhat cooler and drier airmass will move in behind this system
for very late in the week.  Will maintain mention of a small chance
of mainly diurnally driven showers Friday through Saturday with the
upper trough overhead and as several upper disturbances move
through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1137 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Vfr conditions will continue overnight with scattered rain
showers. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out overnight
but storms over Lake Michigan are weakening with the only
lightning noted between KMKE and KORD. The diminishing trend will
continue and there is not enough potential for a storm to warrant
inclusion in any of the terminal forecasts for the overnight
period given radar/lightning trends.

An approaching cold front will cause scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon and early evening.
Prevailing conditions will remain vfr but brief reductions to
mvfr/ifr flight categories are possible in heavier showers and
storms.

Showers and storms will taper off Sunday evening with vfr
conditions expected through 06Z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory through the
weekend and into early next week. The chance for fog and
thunderstorms is minimal today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

River levels across the area are near to just above their expected
values for this time of year. Precipitation of up to an inch is
possible over the next week. Convection through the weekend will
produce mainly localized heavy rainfall. Rises will mainly be
confined to smaller creeks and streams and should not reach flood
levels.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...Laurens
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...Ostuno



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