Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 221734
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
134 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL TODAY BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID
WEEK AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

ONCE THE POLAR JET CORE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND REMAIN SO FOR SOME TIME TO COME.

WE START OUT WITH AN EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET AROUND 45 N THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR JAPAN TO ALMOST THE WEST COST OF THE UNITED
STATES (00Z MONDAY). OVER TIME THIS BREAKS DOWN INTO THREE
SEPARATE UPPER WAVES... ALL OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THAT RESULTS
IN SPLIT FLOW AND RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE VERY SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE STRETCH OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK...BUT THEN IT RETROGRADES AND BUILDS BACK OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING ALSO
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.  THEN BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AGAIN.  THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER
SOUTHERN FLOW AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE CORE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER US ON SATURDAY WHEN A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
HIGHS AROUND 80...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHALLOW FOG WILL FORM BY
DAYBREAK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AT JXN AND AZO AND ANY PLACE NEAR RIVER
VALLEYS OR INLAND LAKES. VFR IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH WEST
WINDS BLO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

I CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TILL NOON TO ALLOW THE WAVE
HEIGHTS TO COME DOWN BELOW 4 FEET. THE SOUTH THIRD OF OUR NEAR
SHORE WILL BE LAST PLACE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WITH NO RAIN FORECAST AND RIVERS WELL WITHING THEIR BANKS...
LITTLE TO WORRY ABOUT HERE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM





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