Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 260523
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1223 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
A CLIPPER WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONLY FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM ARE FOR THE EXTENT OF LIGHT
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND P TYPE ISSUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND EXPECT
CLEARING TO WORK SOUTH THIS EVENING AS STRONG CAA CONTINUES, DEW
POINTS ARE NEAR ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK IN MOST PLACES.

UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND GOES NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT THEN CLOSES
OFF ON MONDAY AS BIG NOREASTER HITS NEW ENGLAND. A COUPLE OF QUICK
MOVING VORT MAXES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HELP FURTHER ENERGIZE THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH. THESE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW...BUT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
WEAK.

THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TRACK AND TIMING IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A
BIT WARMER THAN THE GFS. LOOKS LIKE MIXED PRECIP TO START OFF WITH
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
GOING OVER TO MORE SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER THICKNESS TOOLS
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS ON A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER SYSTEMS CENTERED AROUND WED NIGHT/THU AND ON SAT. THESE
COULD EACH BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA. THE SAT CLIPPER
COULD END UP USHERING IN A PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE FIRST CHC OF PCPN WILL COME IN WED NIGHT AND THU WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL SEE THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE SET UP ACROSS THE WRN STATES AND WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EAST. ONE
OF THE WAVES RIDING IN IS EXPECTED TO GO JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THIS LOOKS LIKE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER
IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...WE COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX
WITH WARM ENOUGH ALOFT COMING IN.

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER THEN FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR NNW FLOW AREAS.
HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE INVERSION AND
MOISTURE...SO NO SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED THEN.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SNOW TO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHOWN THIS WAVE
COMING THROUGH ON SAT AND DRAGGING A NICE CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND
IT. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS THOUGHT EVEN WITH AN OUTLIER
APPEARING IN THE 12Z MODEL SUITE BRINGING WARMER AIR TO THE AREA. WE
ARE BEING SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT RULE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT IN THE 1000-2000FT RANGE. THESE
CEILINGS ARE FLOATING SOUTHWEST OFF OF SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON
IN NORTHEAST FLOW. THEY HAVE BEEN AFFECTING KGRR OFF AND ON FOR A
FEW HOURS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THEY ARE SCATTERING OUT SOME
THOUGH BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH MID CLOUDS
SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE
10000FT. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z.

IN GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

MOST RIVERS ARE HOLDING STEADY OR DROPPING. COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL KEEP THE ICE LOCKED UP. CURRENTLY NO
SUSPECTED ICE JAMS IN THE AREA... BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITORING FOR
ANY THAT DO DEVELOP. SERIOUS ICE JAMS AND FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
UNLIKELY UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AND RAINFALL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS






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