Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 221925
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLOUDS WITH IT OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF A RAIN
SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
NEXT WEEK ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO MAJOR FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST PERIOD.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR ISSUES TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POSSIBLE
STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND THEN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH A WEAKENING FRONT.

WE HAVE ADDED SOME STRATUS CLOUD COVER TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT/THIS
MORNING. STRATUS HAS BEEN PESKY TODAY IN HOLDING ON AND NOT MIXING
OUT AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THIS IS LIKELY TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OFF
OF LAKE HURON AND WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN
OVER THE AREA. THE STRATUS HAS SHOWN A QUICKER DISSIPATION OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WE EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO
SUNSET. SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE EAST UNTIL THE WIND
FLOW CHANGES AND THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT OFF OF LAKE HURON FOR THE
AREA.

WE HAVE LEFT IN THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THU NIGHT...BUT IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN. A DECENT UPPER
TROUGH/SFC FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL HEAD INTO
CANADA AND CLOSE OFF UP THERE. DOWN IN THE U.S....THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED AND HELP TO DAMPEN THE TROUGH OUT
DOWN HERE. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DISSIPATES AS IT APPROACHES...
HELPING TO DISSIPATE ANY RAINFALL. SOME OF IT COULD SNEAK IN BEFORE
IT TOTALLY DRIES UP...BUT IT WILL NOT AFFECT THE AREA IN A
SIGNIFICANT WAY.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS HOLD ON OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDS ON. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. IF WE CAN GET
RID OF THE CLOUDS SOON ENOUGH...60 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND 10C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE FIRST IS A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY. THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE NEAR HUDSON BAY SO WE/RE NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS WITH IT. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY BUT WILL DROP HIGHS 5 DEGREES OR SO FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE DYNAMIC AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE
TOWARD WESTERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION TYPE PCPN
MAY DEVELOP MONDAY BUT DOESN/T LOOK TOO SIGNIFICANT AS THE LOW IS
FILLING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO
COME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A TRAILING LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND SLOWS THE FRONT UP A BIT.
THE TRAILING LOW ALSO PUSHES MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOO WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE PCPN POTENTIAL. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THE MAIN
BATCH OF PCPN WOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY VS EARLIER TUESDAY WITH THE
GFS. TOOK A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THINGS SLOW DOWN.

TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS APPROACHING 70 SEEM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN CWA LATE
MONDAY WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN ISSUES THE STRATOCU AFFECTING ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT
KMKG. AS TEMP WARM ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE THE STRATOCU DISSIPATE FROM
THE EAST AND WEST. SO LANSING SHOULD BE THE LAST TO CLEAR AND KGRR
THE FIRST. WE SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES TO BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL COME UP SOME LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING WAVE MOVING IN. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH CRITERIA
UP TOWARD LUDINGTON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND AND WAVE
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SET OF HEADLINES WOULD BE FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT TIME FRAME ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. RIVERS ARE RUNNING AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY
ALLOW THEM TO DROP OFF MORE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ





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