Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 010408
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1205 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER
80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY DEAL WITH
CLOUD TRENDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION DENOTING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS EXPECTED WE/VE SEEN AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY
WX IS EXPECTED. RH PROGS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
TOMORROW AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 45 TO 55.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

IT WOULD SEEM OUR 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LITTLE THREAT FOR RAIN UNTIL
MONDAY.

WHILE IT IS TRUE THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
JULY  (SEE CSFV2) WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE COMING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND SO THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY REAL ISSUE I SEE AT THIS POINT IS JUST HOW FAST THE NEXT
COLD FRONT GETS TO MICHIGAN. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO TOP
THE WESTERN RIDGE DURING THIS WEEKEND. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
QUICKLY DOES THIS SYSTEM DIG INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN SLOWER. GIVEN
THIS IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW TOPPING AN UPPER RIDGE...SLOWER MAY BE
BETTER. STILL THIS IF NEARLY A WEEK OUT SO FOR NOW I WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS KNOWING THIS MAY BE DELAYED WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

ONE OTHER MINOR ISSUE IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES... WE ARE GOING FOR
HIGHS NEAR 80 OVER THE WEEKEND... GIVEN THE PATTERN WE WILL BE IN
AND THE FORECAST 1000/850 THICKNESS.... I COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID
80S AS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. WE WILL WATCH FOR THAT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
REACHED...BUT IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. AS SUCH WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
ADVISORY. TWO TO FOUR FOOT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE THE
HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND WAVES DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR IONIA... COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO...
AND NEW RICHMOND... AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES... BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP
BEING WELL UNDER A HALF INCH FOR MOST DRAINAGE BASINS. LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON RIVERS IS EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04



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