Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 232357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
657 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Issued at 656 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Mostly clear skies can be expected overnight with lows dropping
into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Some clouds will begin to
increase during the daytime hours on Friday as a weak upper level
system approaches the western Great Lakes. Gusty south winds and
warmer conditions are in store with Friday afternoon high
temperatures ranging from around 50 across south central Lower
Michigan, to the middle 50s across west central Indiana. A cold
front will track across the region Friday night bringing more
clouds and a low chance for some light rain or sprinkles. Dry and
seasonably warm weather will persist through the remainder of the
weekend and into the first part of next week.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)
Issued at 309 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Warmer air will continue to spread back into the region tonight
and Friday. The lower atmospheric levels will remain virtually too
dry to support any precipitation given weak support above. A very
warm but shallow layer will spread just above the surface Friday.
The amount of mixing Friday will determine how warm temperatures
will rise. Favor a slightly warmer solution over what most of the
models are showing with highs in the 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Temperatures will be generally mild for this time of year through
the middle of next week. Scattered sprinkles or light rain
showers are possible early Friday night as a cold front passes
followed by dry conditions until around Tuesday afternoon as high
zonal flow aloft continues with limited moisture. Both the GFS
and more recently the ECMWF favor a more suppressed southern
solution out of the forecast area to energy emerging out of the
west in fast flow aloft. There is still much uncertainty
concerning the evolution of the upper air pattern during the
middle of next week; but at this point, limited precipitation and
mild weather are expected. A light rain/snow mix is possible
during the middle of next week, but as of now, no snow
accumulations are expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions to prevail across northern Indiana through the
forecast period. Weak mid level system with limited mid/upper
level moisture approaches, but primary influence will be increased
gradient winds and deeper mixing layer for significantly higher
sustained surface wind/gusts by midday Friday.


LM...Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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