Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261654

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1153 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Issued at 1153 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Partly to mostly sunny skies with moderating temps into the low
to mid 40s this afternoon. Gusty southwest winds will diminish this


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 413 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Lake enhanced flurries on marked downtrend/ending amid backing and
thinning cloud bearing flow as inversion heights rapidly descend.
Only potential for a few additional flurries/greater cloud coverage
associated with weak shortwave now into western IA to traverse
through flat/broad trof through southern Great Lakes region.
Otherwise with marked increasing heights along with upstream
shortwave to provide marked/channeled 925mb warm air advection push
to fully expunge present low level thermal trof over cwa...and have
afforded a bit warmer than blend/prior forecast as well as a slight
upward nudge to lows tonight in absence of fully decoupled boundary


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 413 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Little change with respect to mid week rain chances. Focus on what
should be two bouts relegated primarily to overnight hours Monday
night and again Tuesday night. The latter of which to likely contain
highest qpf per additional gomex feed in advance of slow eastward
advance of front amid numerous frontal wave ejections along it.
Dynamics/thermodynamics do not present too impressive though with
potential for limited heating/rather meager surface dewpoints. Have
added conditional thunder mention to Tue night as upper support
appears well lagged/not tied well to optimal diurnal cycle. Focus
for redevelopment/intensification should be shifted well east of CWA
for Dy4/amid fropa/falling afternoon temps. Lake effect potential
thereafter/duration seems to be disrupted by fair agreement with
respect to approaching clipper system in upstream northwest flow
late Thu/Thu night. Strong Siberian wave ejection amid circum polar
lobe phasing seems plausible per latest water vapor imagery loop and
have by in to this particular signal. Squelched overzealous blended
pops Friday night as arctic ridge advances into western Upper Great
Lakes. Once again brevity of cold/seasonable airmass again the theme
as mid tropospheric heights rapidly recover into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Vfr conditions this period as expansive sfc ridge holds across the
OH valley. Gusty sw winds this aftn will diminish rapidly toward


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ043-

     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
 for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Murphy

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