Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 192351

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
651 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Issued at 638 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Warmth and moisture streams into the area tonight with rain
totalling a half an inch to one inch. With the influx of rain,
area rivers are forecast to rise allowing for possible flooding.
The influx of warmth will allow highs Friday through the weekend
to be into the 50s, or 15 to 30 degrees above normal for this
time of year. For Monday, a low pressure system will pass by to
the south of the area and temperatures will fall back into the


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Multiple forecast challenges prevail in the short term including
potential fog development and locally heavy rainfall. At the onset,
very moist air was spreading north ahead of an upper level system
over the Mid Mississippi Valley. Precipitable water values are
forecast to be near seasonal climatological maxes topping 1.10
inches tonight. Given upper level support and very impressive low
level forcing/moisture flux, have ramped up rainfall amounts
tonight. The GFS, ECMWF and some high res WPC models favor amounts
around or above 1 inch. In addition to the rain, fog development
is likely as low level moisture flux increases tonight. Fog is
also expected again Friday night ahead of the warm front.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Overall, a very mild pattern for the latter half of January will
persist through the middle of next week. There is virtually no
lingering support for a deep upper low advertised by earlier model
runs that just two days ago were tracking across the Midwest early
next week. GFS and GFS/ensembles all favor a more suppressed
southern track of this system, keeping the bulk of the
precipitation well south of the forecast area. Even with this
track, the mild pattern will continue through Wednesday.
Temperatures will be closing in on record highs this weekend.
Record highs around 60 to 65 and warmest lows around 45 degrees
this weekend will also be challenged.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 638 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Warmth and moisture continues to stream into the region as rain
approaches from the south. CIGs and VISBY initially in VFR, but
when more steady rain enters the region, expect a drop into MVFR
and then a trend towards IFR toward morning as the ceiling lowers.
Once the low pressure system moves through the region during the
day Friday, expect a wind shift to more southwesterly.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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