Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 191923

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
223 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Issued at 223 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Very wet and mild weather will continue through Wednesday morning.
Heavy rainfall will lead to flooding on rivers, streams, and low
lying areas prone to flooding. Temperatures will rise in the
upper 50s and low 60s tonight, reaching the mid 60s to low 70s by
Tuesday afternoon. Cooler and drier air should briefly work in later
Wednesday into Thursday for most areas.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 223 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Periods of moderate to heavy rain, and perhaps some elevated
thunder, will continue to plague the local area with an increasing
hydrologic risk (lowland/river/stream flooding) through Wednesday
morning. Anomalously moist lower to middle tropospheric flow and a
train of lower amplitude impulses the culprit near a stalling
frontal zone draped across the Great Lakes and Mid MS Valley.
Areas west of I-69 in nrn IN/sw Lower MI still appear to be in
line for the highest rainfall totals (3-4", locally up to 5")
through Wednesday morning, with slightly lower amounts expected
southeast of US 24 as main frontal band likely focuses off to the
west for a time Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Will continue to
highlight flooding potential in the Flood Watch and in river
products. Unseasonably mild otherwise as highs tomorrow
potentially break records.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Above normal temps and periodic chances for rain will continue into
the long term as frontal zone oscillates between the lower Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley in between a persistent Southwest US ridge and
Western US mean upper trough.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Periods of moderate to heavy rain will continue through the entire
forecast period as a strengthening low level jet focuses deep
moisture near a frontal zone draped over the region. KSBN likely
to remain LIFR/IFR through the period, while KFWA is expected to
vary between IFR and MVFR.


IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ003>009-012>018-

MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for MIZ077>081.

OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for OHZ001-002-004-005-



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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