Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 232254

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
654 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Issued at 103 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Temperatures will peak around 70 degrees this afternoon as high
pressure over the Great Lakes keeps winds light and skies clear.
It will not be quite as cold tonight with lows in the lower 40s.
Even warmer temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday with
highs in the lower to mid 70s Monday and middle to upper 70s
Tuesday. A chance for showers and thunderstorms returns by
Wednesday with several chances for rain late in the week and next


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Temperatures have rebounded nicely after a cold start to the day
with most locations in the lower to middle 60s. Warmer night in
store with lows around 40 and highs climbing well through the 60s
and likely into the lower 70s in most spots.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Dry weather will persist into at least Wednesday morning before a
cold front slowly approaches from the west and low pressure tracks
along it into the region. Slower arrival of the system will allow
for much warmer temps Weds with highs mid 70s to near 80. Plume of
deeper moisture (PWATS pushing or exceeding 1.5 inches) will edge in
ahead of the front setting the stage for showers/storms to become
likely. Heavy rain will be a distinct threat given the high PWATs,
but also of concern could be severe weather threat with 50 to 60 kts
of bulk shear and at least 1000 J/KG of SBCAPE. Timing of key
features will be key to any threat that may materialize.

Brief return to near or below normal temps Thursday behind the front
before another system digs into the west and low pressure moves
northeast over the weekend. Models varying on timing with this
feature as well with precip potential on both the warm front and
cold front. Superblend of pops brought in likely pops, but hesitant
to run with it so after collaboration lowered to high chc. Depending
on overall speed and track of system, high temps could make a run
well into the 70s and possibly near 80 once again over the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

High pressure will keep VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Winds should remain under 10 knots.


Issued at 324 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

With dry weather expected to persist into at least early Weds
fuels will continue to dry as large temp/dewpoint spreads remain.
Minimum RH values the next couple of afternoons will likely drop
into the 25 to 35 percent range with pockets of incursions to 20
percent. Winds are expected to remain below red flag thresholds
but may increase sufficiently Tuesday afternoon to warrant an
elevated fire danger. Wet pattern Weds ngt into the weekend should
calm conditions back down.




LONG TERM...Fisher

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