Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 311953
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
353 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

OTHER THAN A OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER INTO MID EVENING...DRY
AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. A WEAK SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DEVELOPMENT OF CU THUS FAR HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIMITED TO AN AREA
OF SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE CONCENTRATION AND EDGE OF LAKE SHADOW.
WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE NOTED ON SFC OBS AT 19Z BETWEEN THE LAKE
SHADOW AREA (ROUGHLY MICHIGAN CITY TO CASSOPOLIS) AND MINOR WIND
SHIFT ( MONTICELLO TO WARSAW TO COLDWATER). FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THIS AREA WITH AROUND
1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AVAILABLE BUT SHOULD POSE NO ISSUE
WITH NO SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR ORGANIZATION. WOULDN`T BE ENTIRELY
SURPRISED TO SEE COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS AS WAS HINTED AT BY 00Z
4 KM SPC WRF. A PLEASANT EVENING WILL BE ON TAP WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

ALTHOUGH PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY WILL BE
SLOWLY MOVING AWAY...THE FIRST OF 2 WAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. CURRENT WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
WISCONSIN COULD DRIFT IN TOWARDS MORNING AS THE EDGE OF THE WAVE
APPROACHES. SLGT CHC HELD ONTO LATER TONIGHT BUT SE EXTENT LIMITED.
WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH A QUICK SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL AIR
TO ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPC DOES HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA IN A 5 PERCENT
PROB FOR PULSE TYPE STORMS FRI AFTERNOON/EVE. NOT OVERLY EXCITED
WITH SEVERE CHANCES GIVEN ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY THE SAME AS PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH A BIT BETTER UPPER SUPPORT CAN`T RULE
OUT A STRONGER STORM PRODUCING A WET MICROBURST OR MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL. MAY FRESHEN UP HWO A BIT TO GIVE PASSING MENTION OF MARGINAL
THREAT. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80...ALTHOUGH INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH THE SYSTEM MAY TEMPER THAT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DEEP STNRY LOW NEAR JAMES BAY EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
BY FRI NIGHT AND WKNG... THOUGH TROF HANGING BACK ACROSS OUR AREA
FCST TO SHARPEN UP A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF  VORT
MAXES ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE ACROSS IL/IN. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
LEAD TO WK-MOD INSTABILITY WHICH MAY ALLOW SCT AFTN TSTMS TO DEVELOP.
12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER TO MOVE UPR TROF EAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY... IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LATEST/RECENT ECMWF...
SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA ON SUNDAY. SHRTWV MOVG OVER
TOP OF WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE TO
QUEBEC BY MONDAY WITH A TRAILING BACKDOOR CDFNT MOVG INTO OR
STALLING OUT JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. WK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN OUR AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. BY TUE THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOLING COMBINED
WITH A WK SHRTWV MOVG ESE ACROSS LM TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES GRDLY INCREASE WED-THU AS FLOW AMPLIFIES ONCE
AGAIN WITH BUILDING UPR RIDGE IN WRN U.S. AND DEEPENING TROF MOVG
INTO GRTLKS WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
AND LIGHT FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER NIGHTS NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. BEST CHANCES MAY RESIDE BETWEEN BOTH
TAF SITES SO HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE NO MENTION IN TAFS. CU WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH NEXT BATCH OF THICKER CLOUDS STARTING
TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE. CIGS/VSBY
SHOULD STILL BE VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DOES EXIST IN THE 15
TO 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION TOO LOW TO ADD WITH
BETTER CHANCES AFTER 18Z.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...FISHER


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