Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 271832

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
232 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Issued at 231 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early
evening. A weak cold front will sag southward from the Great Lakes
before stalling across Central Indiana overnight. Another round of
showers is expected late Friday as another push of cooler air
settles into the Great Lakes. Following this, a period of cooler,
drier and rainfree weather is expected for the weekend into early
next week. Lows tonight will drop into the middle 60s. Highs on
Friday will be in the upper 70s. Over the weekend highs will be in
the upper 70s with overnight lows in the middle 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

MCV currently centered over southern Kosciusko county will continue
to drift slowly SE through this evening. Trough axis also slowly
dropping SE. Some clearing trends noted on the northern fringes of
the area with widely scattered showers still popping here and there
from diurnal heating. Have trended slowly down with pops and pushing
things SE with time lingering into the evening. Some hints of
slightly faster trends and decreasing coverage may warrant an update
and subsequent lowering.

Main upper level trough will sweep through Friday with chc of
showers/storms in E/NE Friday. No real concerns with lower moisture
available, reducing heavy rain threat.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Upper level trough will exit Friday night with seasonable
temperatures and dry weather to dominate through at least Sunday and
likely through mid week. Pieces of energy will drift southeast along
the periphery of the upper trough with spurious pops showing up
in gridded data. Can`t completely discount a small chance in NE
areas, but just not worth a mention at this point. Stronger wave
begins to approach and dig into the area with slgt chc to chc pops
warranted as upper level ridging buckles somewhat.

Seasonable temperatures expected through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Surface based low pressure is evident in satellite, radar and
surface observations, centered slightly southeast of the KIWX
radar. The frontal boundary extends eastward across Lake Erie and
southwest to near Saint Louis. Convective temperatures have been
reached and this has triggered isolated SHRA/TSRA along and south
of the frontal boundary. Likewise with the weak isentropic ascent
is keeping stratus well entrenched through sunset. Expect to see
isold IFR cigs and more extensive MVFR cigs, especially south of
the forecast points.

Another shortwave will dive through the Great Lakes Friday and
across the forecast area during the evening. This will lead to
another round of TSRA/SHRA beyond the 18Z end time.


IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 5 PM CDT this afternoon through
     late Friday night for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 PM EDT this evening through late
     Friday night for MIZ077.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Saturday
     for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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