000
FXUS63 KIWX 240541
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
141 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Cooler and less humid conditions will dominate into early next
week. Clouds will increase this afternoon, but little if any
precipitation is expected. Slightly better chances for showers
arrives Sunday afternoon. Highs Saturday in the lower to middle
70s. &&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

West-Northwest flow will persist through Saturday, ushering in
cooler and less humid air. Boundary layer will be well mixed do
not expect to see any fog formation by morning.

Afternoon heating will lead to formation of cu...especially lee
of Lake Michigan. Lack of deep moisture and instability will keep
the threat of measurable precipitation to nearly nil. As the
clouds increase during the peak heating Saturday, this will keep
temperatures from climbing too rapidly and have kept with the
previous trend of low-mid 70s for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The Trof over the Great Lakes will deepen and amplify slightly in
response to the ridging over the Rockies. This amplification will
result in continued influx of cooler air. With this amplification
the models are hinting at short waves embedded in the flow.
Similar to past several events of troffing over the Great Lakes
will see the clouds increase and there will be isold/scattered
light showers late Sunday with the threat continuing through
Monday. This is not a heavy rain event and do not expect to see
deep convection either.

The next threat of significant convection will be as the ridging
shifts eastward. Temperatures and moisture will increase...leading
to increased instability and greater threat for thunderstorm late
Wednesday into Friday. At this time there is low confidence in
talking about timing and intensity. This will need to be watched
and monitored as we get closer to the event. A head`s up for
planning for events that may be planned late in the week as we
approach the 4th of July weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Band of mid clouds was working east across the area in association
with progressive wind shift/secondary cold front. Clouds have been
stubborn to leave KSBN but will not include in TAFs as back edge
should be nearly clear of the site soon. Have added in mention at
KFWA through remainder of the night. Skies will clear in the wake
of this front, only to fill back in with sct-bkn cu as steep lapse
rates and limited moisture stir up development. Can`t rule out a
stray shower, but not worthy of any mention. Skies will partially
clear after 00z.

Winds will pick up somewhat during the late morning into afternoon
hours, gusting to around 20 knots.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 5 AM CDT early this morning through
     Sunday evening for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     Sunday evening for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lewis
SHORT TERM...Lewis
LONG TERM...Lewis
AVIATION...Fisher


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