000
FXUS63 KIWX 091558
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
SHUNTED FARTHER SOUTH. THIS ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGES FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO THE MID
40S IN CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK ONLY A
LITTLE...PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

CORE OF 925MB THERMAL TROF EARLY THIS MORNING FROM FAR EASTERN LK
SUPR SWD TO CNTL IN THIS AM TO LIFT OUT RAPIDLY NEWD IN RESPONSE
TO UPSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING/HEIGHT RISE CENTROID ACRS SRN
MN/IA TRACKING ESEWD INTO CNTL OHIO BY MIDDAY. THIS WAA PATTERN
ALONG WITH NEAR OPTIMAL FOR MID MARCH INSOLATION ONTO REDUCED
ALBEDO OF STALE/OVERSTAID SNOWPACK...SUGGESTS DECIDEDLY HIR THAN
MOS TEMPS FOR TODAY. ESPECIALLY WARMER IN SRN-WRRN CWA WHERE SRN
FRINGE OF SNOWPACK HAS WHITTLED AWAY AND PROXIMITY OF LLVL
THERMAL PLUME INTO WRN/SWRN CWA DRAWN BY INTENSE 50-55KT SWRLY
2KFT JETCORE INTO NRN LK MI/SRN WI BY THIS AFTN. LATEST
ITERATIONS OF RAP13 AND OTHER HIER RES MODELS LESS BENT IN
COMPARO TO NAM12 WRT LLVL THERMAL TROFS STRANGLEHOLD INTO FAR SRN
UPR GRTLKS THROUGH THE DAY. CONTD WAA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
ADVANCING MID/UL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN BROAD/ RAPID QUASIZONAL FLOW
FM THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN MT TO NEW ENGLAND...RELEGATING A PAIR
WEAK NRN STREAM CLIPPERS WELL TO NORTH NOW THROUGH DY2. INCRSD
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THOUROUGHLY MIXED BLYR TO LIMIT LONGWAVE
LOSSES AND SUPPORT A VERY SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE TO FCST MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE
AREA BUT SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH WILL
LIMIT OVERALL HIGHS TUESDAY. REAL CHALLENGE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE
HOW WARM TEMPS CAN GET WITH SOUTHERN AREAS LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO THE
50S WITHOUT A WHOLE LOT OF EFFORT AND SOME GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS
EVEN CLOSE TO 60. NOT READY TO GO FOR THE EXTREME BUT CONSIDERING
50S AREN`T UNREASONABLE GIVEN PAST TRENDS HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A
HAIR IN SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT KEPT COOLER NORTH.

ONLY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY THAT APPROACHES MAINLY TUES NGT INTO WEDS. ECMWF HAS COME
BACK AROUND TO ITS SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES VERY SIMILAR BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GEM. SFC LOW AND ITS TRACK
IS WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES OCCUR RESULTING IN VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUES NGT INTO EARLY WEDS WITH TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NW. ALLBLEND OF
MODEL GUIDANCE AND OTHER SIMILAR GUIDANCE WERE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN SOME AREAS SO HAND CONTOURED TO PLACE LIKELY POPS IN SE
AREAS AND MID RANGE CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WITH WAVE OF INTEREST NOT SET
TO COME ONSHORE UNTIL MONDAY...SOLUTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY.

BRIEF SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL ARRIVE AGAIN WEDS INTO THURS
AS NW FLOW SETTLES IN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HOWEVER...ALL
SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A RETURN...ALTHOUGH LIKELY BRIEF...TO 40S AND
MAYBE 50S BEFORE MORE AGRESSIVE WAVE DROPS SE INTO THE PLAINS AND
SHOWS SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLE FORECAST ISSUES JUST
OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS WOULD BRING A LARGE STORM TO THE
AREA WITH ECMWF SHOWING A MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK BUT STILL
STRONG SYSTEM FOR THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BETTER MIXED WARM SECTOR BUILDS
IN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS DISPLACED WELL NORTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA. LOW LEVEL JET CORE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SLIDE ESE INTO NORTHERN INDIANA
OVERNIGHT WITH LLWS CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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