Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 210553

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1253 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

Issued at 645 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Cloudy skies and areas of fog can be expected to continue
tonight along with chances of light rain and areas of drizzle. Some
locally dense fog is a possibility across extreme northern Indiana
and southern lower Michigan through early portions of the
overnight hours. Temperatures will rise through the 40s tonight,
with high temperatures on Saturday ranging from the lower to upper


Issued at 908 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Based on latest observational trends and expected trends during
the overnight hours, will be issuing a dense fog advisory for
southern lower Michigan counties. Vsbys have trended down to one
quarter to one half mile across much of far northern portions of
the forecast area this evening. Some temporary improvement is
anticipated late this evening into the early overnight hours, but
additional areas of dense fog are expected to form overnight as
warm front approaches the area. Vsbys should improve steadily
during the mid morning hours Saturday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Very mild and moist air was spreading northeast into the forecast
area with temperatures rising near 20 degrees above normal. Areas of
fog had somewhat dissipated through early this afternoon, although
visibilities were still around a mile over far southern Lower
Michigan during the middle of this afternoon. Have decided against a
dense fog advisory tonight. Fog should redevelop, but the latest
high res WPC runs and conditional climatology support most
visibilities falling to around 1 mile. However, locally lower
visibilities are likely. Temperatures should be steady or slowly
rise tonight, so roads should be just wet with no ice expected.
Highs Saturday should climb into the 50`s Saturday and may top 60
degrees over southeast areas. Record highs at South Bend and Ft
Wayne are in the low to mid 60s. Skies should remain cloudy or
mostly cloudy with light precipitation possible, but heavy rain is
not expected.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Overall, a very mild pattern for the latter half of January
will persist through the middle of next week. Some rain is
possible Monday as the northwest edge of an upper level system and
associated low pressure area track southeast of the area. Have
raised rain chances Monday over mainly northwest Ohio. Otherwise,
mild conditions with continue through Wednesday with highs in the
40s and 50s. Record warm lows around 45 degrees may be set
Sunday. Temperatures will be turning colder Thursday and Friday as
the upper level trof moves east.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1252 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

Strong northward warm sector push allowing for significantly
improved flight conditions across northern IN this morning. Small
patch of drizzle invof KSBN may result in tempo reductions next
few hours. Residual moisture within 015-020 layer could allow
reformation of stratocu layer after daybreak, otherwise trend to
VFR conditions appears to have highest likelihood of outcomes.
Guidance a bit overly bullish at this time with respect to br/fg
formation towards daybreak Sunday and this will need at least a
further review in later forecasts.


MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ077>081.

LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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