Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 230911

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
411 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Widespread significant flooding will continue over northwest
Indiana and southwest lower Michigan with record crests expected
on several rivers. For the remainder of the overnight, light rain
will return late and continue into Friday morning before drying
out for the afternoon. Only light rainfall amounts are expected.
Temperatures will slowly rise into the upper 30s and lower 40s for
the remainder of the overnight. Additional rain chances will
arrive Saturday into Saturday night.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 342 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Some rivers were still yet to crest from earlier record rainfall
causing extensive flooding. Additional waves tracking along the
front could bring another half inch of rain to the hardest hit
areas; however, this additional rainfall should not have a major
impact on the current situation. Heavier rainfall amounts are
expected to fall south and east of Fort Wayne where about 1.75"
is expected from Portland to Lima. Will update the Hydrologic
Outlook to mention additional rainfall sending several rivers into
flood. Some lowlands are also likely to flood over these areas.

In addition to the rain, a light wintry mix is possible tonight
over far northern Indiana into northwest Ohio. There could be some
minor travel issues in the vicinity of Highway 6 around daybreak;
however, temperatures should warm quickly after sunrise bringing
the end to any travel issues.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

The main upper trof should linger over western North American
through the middle of this upcoming week. Mild weather can be
expected downstream of this system with highs generally in the mid
40s to the mid 50s through Wednesday. Little if any rain is
expected during this time as the main energy with this system
stays west of the forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 125 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Fairly strong warm/moist advection continues overnight into Friday
morning with deteriorating cigs to lower end IFR or LIFR. A low
amplitude short wave tracking across the western Great Lakes will
eventually allow for more veered southwesterly low level flow
taking deeper moisture axis across central Ohio. Precipitation to
this point has been mainly in the form of drizzle, but a window
from 10Z-15Z looks most favorable for deeper moisture profiles in
place as low level trough moves through to support a period of
light rain at terminals, possibly ending as a period of drizzle as
strong mid level dry air advection punches in. Cigs should
temporarily improve later Friday afternoon/evening, but another
advective moisture surge toward the end of the period will cause
cigs to deteriorate once again for late Friday night/Saturday with
renewed rain chances. The other issue for the remainder of the
overnight hours will potential of some patchy fog given shallow
moist airmass.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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