Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 110830
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF US 30. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WNW FLOW LE MULTIBANDS WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF US 30
IN IN/MI TODAY GIVEN MODERATE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH TIME AS
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BACKING FLOW LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TO
NEAR 4 KFT BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE
BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND 2 INCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH ROADS
LIKELY SNOW COVERED/SLICK IN THE ADVISORY AREA THIS MORNING.
SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE A DIURNAL RAMP UP (LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON) IN
SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN INTO CLOUD LAYER/DGZ. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS. COLD OTHERWISE WITH TEMPS 10-15F
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND 5-10F BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A
RENEWED VIGOR TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENSION OF POLAR
VORTEX WILL DIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF VERY COLD AIR WITH SIBERIAN
ORIGINS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LOCALLY FRIDAY ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH MEASURABLE PCPN WILL ACTUALLY FALL.
BETTER CHANCES NEAR THE BIG LAKE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND COLD WEDGE
DEEPENS WILL SEE EXPANSION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DGZ WILL LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY COLD AIRMASS AS 850MB TEMPS
APPROACH -25C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER PART OF DGZ SATURATED
WITH GOOD LIFT BUT LOTS OF PLATES AND NEEDLE FLAKES SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL FLAKE SIZE AND ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY DESPITE EXTREME
INSTABILITY WITH LARGE DELTA T VALUES. POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS
FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH.

REMAINDER OF LONG TERM FORECAST BASICALLY UNTOUCHED FROM SUPERBLEND
INIT WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TIMING
AND LOCATION OF WAVES AND DETAILS FROM RUN TO RUN SO BROAD BRUSH LOW
CHANCE POPS. WILL SEE GRADUAL WARM UP AS ARCTIC AIR RETREATS AND
PCPN TYPE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY KSBN WITH VARIABLE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS (VIS RANGING MVFR TO LIFR) THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KFWA BUT COULD SEE
BRIEF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY SHSN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BACKING/WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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