Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 020711
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
211 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR UP THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 20
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. SKIES TODAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STORM NUMBER 1 WINDING DOWN...

FIRST OF 2 SYSTEMS OF INTEREST QUICKLY WINDING DOWN AS MAIN
SHORTWAVE WAS EXITING THE REGION. ON AVERAGE SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE
RANGED FROM A FEW INCHES ALONG US-6 TO 6 TO LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 8
OR 9 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES (GRANT/BLACKFORD/JAY). WITH
LACK OF WIND AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY...OVERALL IMPACTS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO SIGNIFICANT BASED ON
REPORTS FROM MEDIA...EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STATE WEBSITES. WILL
BE DROPPING ADVISORY EARLY FOR ENTIRE AREA WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER SUNSET TEMPS WILL
DROP WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. LIMITED
LAKE RESPONSE AS FLOW BECOMES NW THIS EVENING...BUT MSTR AND
INVERSION HGT LIMITED SO AT MOST CHC OF SNOWSHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING.

MUCH QUIETER END TO THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD
AND BRINGS MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR COMPACTION OF
THE FRESH SNOW. HIGHS SHOULD TOP

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG SHRTWV LIFTS NE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTERACTS WITH
UPPER TROF/ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG H85
THETA-E ADVECTION/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE E-SE OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT
IN AN AREA OF PRECIP SPREADING INTO OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE MORNING. INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
SUGGESTS PTYPE AT ONSET PRBLY WILL BE SNOW/SLEET. DEEPENING LOW
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE TO NRN MI BY TUE EVE WITH WARM SECTOR
OVERSPREADING OUR AREA TRANSITIONING PRECIP TO FREEZING RAIN THEN
RAIN DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE ABOUT 3HRS OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ACCUM LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE
TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING... SO ATTM ANTICIPATE A SHORT DURATION
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT. HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE M30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

AS LOW MOVES NE INTO CANADA TUE NGT A STRONG CDFNT WILL SWEEP SE
ACROSS OUR AREA CHANGING ANY LINGERING RAIN BACK TO SNOW. POST
FRONTAL CAA SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE TEENS NW TO THE M20S SE...
WITH LITTLE RECOVERY WEDNESDAY.

UPR LEVEL TROF PROGGED TO LAG WELL BEHIND SFC CDFNT WEDNESDAY WITH A
WK SHRTWV MOVG ENE ALONG THE FRONT RESULTING IN SOME POST-FRONTAL
SNOW WHICH COULD IMPACT SE PORTION OF THE CWA... WHILE COLD WNW
FLOW MAY RESULT IN SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NW. SFC HIGH OF
ARCTIC ORIGIN WILL SINK SE INTO THE OH VALLEY WED NGT-THU NGT
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS WITH LOWS AROUND ZERO AND HIGHS
ONLY IN THE TEENS.

ALTHOUGH MEAN UPR TROF EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER ERN U.S./CANADA
INTO THE WEEKEND... AMPLIFICATION PROGGED TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY... RESULTING IN FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY-SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS GRDLY WARMING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE TRAJECTORY INDICATES SBN MAY BECOME
MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS...SO LEFT A TEMPO MVFR GROUP AT SBN.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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