Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 101941
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
341 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH QUIET
WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE WEAKENING. A NOTICEABLE
LAKE SHADOW PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE HAD ADVANCED WELL INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AT MICHIGAN CITY. ALSO...DEW POINTS OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
50F. HAVE LOWERED LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES TONIGHT IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST GFS/MAV AND NAM/MET GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS ON TRACK AS
AFTERNOON CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. OTHERWISE...
HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY GIVEN THE LATEST GFS...ECMWF AND NAM RUN TO RUN
TRENDS SUPPORTING A SLOWER SOLUTION. ALSO...A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE
THE BASE OF THE WANING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL TAKE TIME TO
SATURATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA CANADA WAS DEEPENING AND IS
PROJECTED TO HEAD EAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY AND THEN TRANSITION MORE SE
INTO ONTARIO BY MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN STATES. AS THIS WAVE DIGG SOUTH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL BE SENT INTO THE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THIS BRIEF PATTERN
CHANGE...ALLOWING MSTR TO RETURN TO THE REGION AND PROVIDE ONE OR
MORE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COMPLEX
NATURE OF MESOSCALE SYSTEM...MODELS OF COURSE ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
ON TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH. WHEREEVER THE CORRIDOR SETS UP THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A GOOD DEAL OF RAINFALL WITH SOME FLOODING
POTENTIAL EXISTING.

FIRST WAVE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA OR IOWA AND TRACK EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE KEY IN POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
AND SEVERE WEATHER WITH MAJORITY OF MODELS BRINGING RAINFALL INTO
THE REGION TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE PLETHRA OF VARIATIONS
IN TRACK (S MI INTO S INDIANA)...HARD TO MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES INTO
SUNDAY. DID SPLIT SAT AM AND PM AND PLACE SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS
DURING WHAT MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE TIME FRAME INTO SAT NGT. SPC
SWODY3 DOES HAVE MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SAT/SAT NGT.
WHILE THE THREAT COULD EXIST EARLY ON SATURDAY A BETTER CHANCE COULD
OCCUR MORE SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER COMPLEX MOVES OUT OF
THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE REGION. SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANZIED CONVECTION BUT TOO EARLY TO HANG OUR HAT ON ANYTHING.
REGARDLESS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER WAVE AND MORE SOUTHERLY PUSH
OF THE UPPER LOW USHERS IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON
CUMULUS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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