Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 210546

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1246 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

Issued at 130 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Unseasonably mild conditions will continue through Friday. Dry
weather will persist through this evening, but an upper level
disturbance and frontal boundary will provide a likelihood of
light rain showers late tonight into Tuesday. Mainly dry weather
is then expected for Tuesday night through Wednesday night before
rain chances increase once again by Thursday, and especially on
Friday as a stronger storm system approaches. There is a risk of
some severe weather on Friday with strong winds as the main
threat. The warmest conditions of the forecast period are expected
on Wednesday when highs are expected to range from the mid 60s to
70. Temperatures will drop back to near seasonable normals by the
upcoming weekend with a chance of snow showers Saturday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

A significant part of the upper level trof will shear out northeast
into Ontario Province in Canada, leaving an upper level low well to
the south over the Gulf Coast States. This will leave somewhat of a
gap of upper air support over the forecast area tonight. Have
reduced rain chances tonight. Rainfall amounts should be light.
Very little cold air will be behind this system, so the warm
pattern will continue with highs in the 60s Tuesday.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

The unseasonably mild pattern will persist through Friday with highs
in the 60s each day; even nearing 70 Wednesday. Record highs
Wednesday are 66 at South Bend and 67 at Fort Wayne respectively.  A
strong upper level system and accompanied deep low pressure area
will move into the western Great Lakes region and bring a round of
showers and storms Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded
their severe storm risk for Friday and have included all of the
forecast area. An upper level speed max combined the advection of an
elevated mixed layer will favor severe storms as a cold front
approaches. Kept thunder in Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures
should still be mild into Friday, but then turn much colder
Saturday, although temperatures will still be close to normal for
this time of year with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. A rain,
snow and/or rain/snow mix is possible from late Friday night
through Monday, but little if any snow accumulation is expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1245 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

Weakening cold front still expected to wash across the area later
today. Main change to TAF`s was to slightly improve expected
conditions. System lacks good upper support while low level
moisture and convergence are similarly lacking. Latest forecast
soundings indicate fuel alternate conditions may prove difficult
and KFWA could even remain VFR with frontal passage. This is
supported by upstream observations. Weak postfrontal CAA could
support some afternoon MVFR stratocu but even that is somewhat
questionable. Biggest aviation concern may be fog development at
the very end of this TAF period given light winds, nocturnal
cooling, and sufficient near-surface moisture.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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