Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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293 FXUS63 KIWX 082305 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 705 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Dry through this evening with gradually increasing shower and thunderstorm chances overnight toward daybreak Thursday. Periodic chances for showers and storms continue through most of the week. -A few strong storms with the activity developing late tonight, mainly south and west of a line from LaPorte, Indiana to Lima, Ohio. Confidence in severe weather occurring is low at this time, with the main concerns hail to the size of quarters and localized damaging wind gusts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 A rather pleasant day underway with temperatures well into the 70s and a few spots in the lower 80s with comfortable humidity levels. High clouds have been on the increase from southwest to northeast originating from vigorous thunderstorm development over the middle Mississippi River Valley region. Expect quiet weather with gradually increasing mid level clouds through this evening. A low level boundary will move into the region overnight and eventually become a focus for showers and embedded storms. Timing has been pushed back a bit, and confidence has taken a hit given varied locations of the low level boundary by near term models. The best chances for development are toward daybreak tomorrow and lasting into tomorrow afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible into tomorrow night, with chances ending from northwest to southeast Thursday night as an upper wave finally exits. The pattern will remain active, with another quick moving wave within northwest flow aloft will enter late Friday night and provide another opportunity for scattered showers, perhaps a few storms during the morning Saturday. Yet another quick moving shortwave will provide similar shower and embedded storm chances Sunday night into Monday. After today`s warm temperatures, readings will fall back into the 50s and 60s Thursday and low 60s for Friday and Saturday. Warm advection ahead is expected Sunday with highs edging back toward the 70 degree mark. The weather pattern next week features more of the same, periodic shortwave moving through fast flow aloft. This will bring quick hits for showers and a few storms. Not looking at a wash out on any given day, but the forecast PoPs are on the pessimistic side as they are present on a daily basis. Temperatures look to be above average with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 649 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 A surface low will track south of the terminals and will bring rain showers, lower/MVFR ceilings and scattered storms starting overnight. It looks like the lowest ceilings and visibilities will be during the day Thursday as rain saturates the lower layers combined with a northeast to east low level flow. Conditional climatology support MVFR ceilings at 21Z during May in this scenario. Little if any improvement is expected Thursday. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gagan/NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan WI AVIATION...Skipper