Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 250533

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1233 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

Issued at 723 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

A cold front is working its way through central Wisconsin at this
hour. Locally, wind gusts have increased a bit as a strong low-
level jet approaches from the northwest. Aside from a sprinkle
tonight, we anticipate dry conditions to prevail this weekend. Low
temperatures tonight will fall near 40. Saturday, temperatures
will be sluggish to rise into the mid-40s. This coming week, we
will monitor a few chances for light precipitation. Otherwise,
expect largely dry conditions with temperatures above normal.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

A cold front will move across the area tonight. Very dry
conditions aloft should only allow for a few sprinkles. Very
limited cold air will be able to reach the area, so highs Saturday
will still be a little above normal.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

A mild and relatively inactive pattern can be expected through
next Thursday as the flow remains high zonal with a few weak
systems impacting the area. Temperatures should rise much above
normal early next week as an upper level ridge builds north of the
Ohio Valley in response to an active pattern along the western
North America Coast. Some energy in the form of a short wave trof
or upper level low should move east of the Mississippi River by
the middle of next week. There was a very large model spread
favoring low confidence in the timing and duration with any
precipitation associated with this system. For this package, kept
a chance for mainly light rain from late Tuesday into Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1233 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

Surface cold front currently approaching the TAF sites. Very
little moisture available so not expecting any impacts with the
front itself. However, postfrontal CAA will lead to a period of
lower ceilings later this morning. Some guidance, particularly the
NAM, still suggesting fuel alternate and possible IFR. This still
seems too aggressive based on upstream obs and lack of low level
moisture. Will hold with high-end MVFR for now but some brief fuel
alternate may be possible in the 11-14Z period. Gradual lifting
and clearing expected through the day as drier air advects into
the area.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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