000
FXUS63 KIWX 191732
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TOMORROW WILL SEE MORE SUNNY SKIES UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH AROUND NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

SPLENDID WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TODAY. RAPIDLY
LIFTING EAST COAST TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION FROM PACIFIC
NORTHWEST CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FORCE BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND
AVA OVER OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND
LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT A MARVELOUS LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. EXPECT NEARLY FULL
SUN...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A FEW DIURNAL CU...AND TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JUNE. COMPETING EFFECTS FOR HIGH TEMPS
TODAY WITH LINGERING THERMAL TROUGH...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
DAY...AND STRONG INSOLATION FROM VERY HIGH JUNE SUN ANGLE. 850MB
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 11C BY THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING THIS TO THE
SURFACE GIVES LOW/MID 70S BUT EXPECT MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN 850MB AND STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP US CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST WHERE A
DECENT LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GIVEN WEAK GRADIENT WINDS.
THIS WOULD BE AN ALMOST 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING FROM COOL MORNING
LOWS BUT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN DRY AIRMASS AND GOOD INSOLATION.
BUMPED INHERITED MAX TEMP FORECAST UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW
SPOTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLIGHT AIRMASS MODIFICATION
BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT ESE SURFACE WINDS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

SIG DOWNSTREAM HGT RISES XPCD THIS PD INADV OF DEEP LYRD TROUGH
PIVOTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. BROAD MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS BLDS CORE OF MID-UPR RIDGE AXIS ACRS THE SRN LAKES INTO
SUN BFR SHIFTING EWD IN ASSOCN/W EJECTION OF SIG NRN ROCKIES SW INTO
SRN MB. PRIOR TO THAT DOUBT PCPN CHCS HERE UNTIL LT PD IN CONCERT
W/WARM MID LVL TEMPS OVERTOP WK LL FLW AND DEEMED INADEQUATE BNDRY
LYR THETA-E WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE MID LVL CAPPING INVERSION
THROUGH FRI.

LTR PD POPS/WX GENERALLY HELD PER EWD PROGRESSION OF SHARP MID LVL
TROUGH THROUGH SRN CANADA AND SOME INHERENT BREAKDOWN IN MID LVL
RIDGE ACRS THE SRN LAKES XPCD. HWVR LACK OF HGT FALLS W/SRN EXTENT
PORTEND ISOLD CHCS AT BEST AND BEFITTING PRIOR GRIDDED STANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH POCKETS OF SCT CU DEVELOPMENT TO
RAPIDLY DISSPATE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER


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