Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 312334
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
734 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
MAY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH A LITTLE DEEPER
MIXING ACROSS NW/NC INDIANA TODAY... DOUBT THERE WILL BE A REPEAT OF
THE LIFR VSBYS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS AT KSBN. FOG WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY ON TUE MORNING WITH JUST SCT CU AND VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. WK CUT-OFF UPR LOW OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE AREA
TUESDAY BUT PRBLY WONT IMPACT KSBN/KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...JT


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