Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261835
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
235 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the southeastern
U.S. causing warm moist conditions across our area through the
Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures will remain well above normal
with highs in the lower or middle 80s and lows in the 60s. A low
chance of mainly afternoon thunderstorms will continue into early
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Isolated to scattered convection will remain possible into mainly
northwest OH and south-central MI late this afternoon along a
weakening convective outflow. Moderate MLCAPE and just enough
convergence currently (18z) to support low chance PoPs, with
lacking flow/lapse rates and warm profile not supportive of
upscale growth/severe wx. Little chance for measurable
precipitation then into tonight as fairly strong subsidence
builds in behind departing MCV.

Pattern will amplify a bit Friday into Friday night as a vigorous
southwest US shortwave ejects east-northeast into the Central High
Plains and an Eastern US mid-upper level ridge builds into the
Northeast US/southeast Canada in blocky flow. The local area will
be caught in between in warm/humid deep layer southwest flow. With
this will come low chances for showers/storms given ample CAPE/low
level moisture, especially for areas west of the I-69 corridor on
eastern fringe of modest LLJ as convectively aided/smaller scale
shortwaves lift northeast from the Mid Mississippi/Missouri Valley
to the Western Great Lakes. Opted to keep PoPs on the low side
given low predictability of mesoscale features with synoptic
scale support displaced well off to west-northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

High theta-e/PWAT airmass will remain in place into Saturday and
Sunday as light southwest flow persist. This moist, but generally
weak flow with the potential for smaller scale/convectively
induced shortwaves to propagate through, will result in more low
chances for showers/storms during these periods. The best chances
appear to be on Sunday as what is left of the Central Plains PV
anomaly finally minors northeast into the western/northern Great
Lakes forcing a weak cold front southeast into the local area.
Regardless, most of the holiday weekend should remain dry given
lacking forcing/flow. Mainly dry/seasonable conditions are then
expected into the first half of next week as flow pattern breaks
down somewhat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Wk shrtwv induced by early morning MO/IL mcs was lifting ne
across nrn IN this aftn accompanied by a line of shra/ts. Radar
suggests a wkng trend as the line moves into an area of weaker mid
level lapse rates over ne IN, so just fcst tempo -shra and vcts at
FWA from 18-19z. This line should be east of SBN by 18z. Latest
HRRR indicates pockets of moderate instability will develop behind
the line this aftn suggesting additional tsra psbl, but given lack
of forcing, threat too low to mention in tafs. generally vfr
conditions the remainder of the TAF period, except some mvfr
stratus/br expected around dawn given moist boundary layer now in
place.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...JT


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