Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 060535
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
135 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY ON
MONDAY. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA MAY MAKE IT HAZY AS WELL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD BEFORE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. SPLIT FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT PRESS TIME...BETWEEN RIDGING TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AS IT IS REABSORBED INTO THE MEAN WESTERLIES BUT
WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH VERY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SEND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S THOUGH AND THIS WILL SERVE AS A FLOOR ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.
INHERITED FORECAST GENERALLY IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE. SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG/BR AGAIN AROUND
SUNRISE. CROSS-OVER TEMPS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH BUT PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD STILL SUPPORT SOME PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG. NAM NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE PROFILES AND MET GUIDANCE
ARE SUPPORTIVE...AND PERSISTENCE CERTAINLY ARGUES FOR AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW GROUND FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/SEVERITY IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVER-ACHIEVING DAY FOR MAX TEMPS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW/WAA WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND STRONG JULY SUN WILL
LEAD TO RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS OF NEARLY 800MB. CONTINUED TO
LEAN TOWARD WARMER MOS GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 80S AND WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED AT ALL IF A FEW PLACES TOUCH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOCUS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SKIRTING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS/SOUTHERN
CANADA...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PREFRONTAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LOW END POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...BUT WOULD EXPECT ANY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MONDAY EVENING
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST WITH RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HELPING TO OVERCOME SOME WEAK CAPPING ISSUES.

STRONGEST FORCING WITH NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY...WITH UPPER
WAVE GRADUALLY DAMPENING THROUGH TIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.
LOCAL AREA SHOULD BECOME BETTER POSITIONED IN BROAD RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN ASSOCIATED UPPER JET STREAK...WHICH COMBINED WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER/STORMS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STEEPEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WELL OUT AHEAD THE FRONT IN DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...DIURNAL TIMING LOOKS
TO BE RATHER UNFAVORABLE WITH CONTAMINATING RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MORE ROBUST SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
ALSO BE WELL INTO THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND GIVEN ABOVE
FACTORS SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GREATER CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE FOR SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS GIVEN ABUNDANT PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...AND A FAIRLY STRONG 30-40 SWRLY
LOW LEVEL JET AIDING IN SOME UPWIND DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-TUESDAY EVENING WITH FROPA. LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL APPEARS TO SUPPORT PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AS
LOW LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT ADVECTS BACK NORTHWARD...PARTICULARLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. OPTED TO MAINTAIN BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE
TSRA POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS EVENTUALLY BEGINS TO DAMPEN CENTRAL CONUS MID
LEVEL RIDGING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA ATTM EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE
MVFR RANGE BY DAWN AS SOME RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPS. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT AS SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A CDFNT APCHG FROM THE UPR MIDWEST. WARM/DRY
MID LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME HOWEVER... SO JUST
SCT-BKN FAIR WX CU EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT


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