Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221917
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
317 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TONIGHT...AND AFTER A CHILLY START SATURDAY MORNING...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER TROF
SWEPT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNIGN AND DEWPOINTS DROPPED 15 TO
18 DEGREES. THIS IS NOTED ON SURFACE ANAYLSIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...WHILE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH
ARE IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH A SLIGT
EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN THE COOLER/DRIER AIR
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. HRRR AND WRF BOTH SUGGEST
THAT BOUDNARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...SO
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PATCHY FROST OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOW APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR LATE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CA
AND WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...BERMUDA HIGH OVER
ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD SOUTHEAST COAST. RESULT
WILL BE RISING HEIGHTS OVER MIDWEST WITH BUILDING SHORT WAVE RIDGE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT BY LATE WEEKEND
AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN
DEVELOPMENT BUT ANY SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVES OR
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE COULD EASILY GENERATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SMALL SCALE DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN
WITH QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERAL ENSEMBLE BLEND APPROACH USED FOR POPS AND TEMPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SUPERBLEND PREFERRED. DID LOWER
SUPERBLEND POPS SEVERAL PERIODS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY BUT LEFT LOW
END LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY IN THE WEST. STAYED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
WITH TEMPS GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN OR
WARMER WITH LACK OF PCPN AND POTENTIAL MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LEWIS


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