Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271932
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
332 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE
ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE INTERIM...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIAL THE MAIN
ISSUES. FOG AND STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS TURNED INTO AN
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS AND CLEARING NOTED ON
PERIPHERY ALONG WITH CELLULAR LOOK ON SATELLITE SO EXPECT MUCH OF
THIS TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. SFC HIGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST BUT WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SLIGHT GRADIENT TO DEVELOP LATE BUT STILL ONLY SHOULD SEE WINDS IN
THE 3-5 KNOT RANGE. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STILL MOIST AND DRY AIR
ALOFT COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP BUT NOT EXPECTING AS
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEPER MIXING WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE SUPPORT
MOS AND 2M TEMPS INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHRTWV OVER WY/CO THIS AFTN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO THE UPR MS
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. BUILDING RIDGES OVER THE PLAINS AND EAST
COAST SHOULD CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. RATHER DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING H85 THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NW
PORTION OF CWA FRIDAY NIGHT PSBLY RESULTING IN SCT SHOWERS LATE.
COMBINATION OF BUILDING DIURNAL INSTABILITY... SLOWLY APCHG UPR
TROF AND LINGERING W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD
LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY AFTN... GREATEST COVERAGE
NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA... WITH SOME CONVECTION LIKELY LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WKNG TROF SHOULD BE OVER THE CWA SUNDAY
LEADING TO A SIMILAR DIURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION... THOUGH
COVERAGE PRBLY LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING
TO SE CWA AHEAD OF WK TROF AXIS. BY MONDAY THIS WK UPR TROF/COOL
POOL SHOULD BE SE OF THE CWA WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDING EAST
FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GRTLKS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR
NO DEEP CONVECTION/RAINFALL IN OUR CWA MON-THU NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM TO CLOSE TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE U70S/L80S AND LOWS IN THE L-M60S. BUILDING DEEP LAYER
RIDGING ACROSS THE GRTLKS NEXT WEEK SHOULD CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS IN THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD RESULT
IN LARGE DIURNAL RANGES WITH LOWS IN THE L-M60S AND HIGHS IN THE M-
U80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

FOG AND STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A BKN-OVC
DIURNAL CU DECK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BORDING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.
EXPECT BASES TO CONTINUE A SLOW RISE AND SHOULD SEE VFR MID
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS
OF SUN. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR
STRATUS TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND STILL
SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL JUST BE
REALIZED LATE. WILL KEEP MVFR VIS IN TAFS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MORNING FOR NOW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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