Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 311022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
622 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Issued at 401 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

A warm front will slowly work back north into the area with
increasingly humid air for tonight into Wednesday night. A cold
front will sweep across the area Wednesday afternoon and night
bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms...followed by a
trend to cooler and less humid conditions that should persist into
next week. Highs today will reach the middle to upper 80s across
the area with lows tonight in the middle 50s to lower 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 401 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

A rather diffuse frontal boundary was located from Iowa into
portions of central Illinois and southern Indiana. A few storms
managed to pop right after 6z over in central illinois along the
front and have held their own now extending from west of chicago
into Wisconsin. These will continue to work north and pose no
threat to the area. This scenario was depicted to some extent by
the HRRR...which suggests that widely scattered showers and storms
may pop this afternoon in our southwestern counties on slowly
northward advancing baroclinic zone. Confidence in occurrence not
high enough to add any slgt chc or chc pops but have come up from
inherited low to nil pops and will let day shift monitor trends.

With regards to cloud cover and temperatures...lots of cirrus blow
off being seen from upstream convection which will make its way
across the area today and tonight...leading to mostly sunny skies.
Guidance has been running on the lower side past several days and
given little more than mid/high clouds think we have a shot at
possibly overachieving on highs again. Have went with mid to even
some upper 80s by late afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

A continued slower trend is observed with the approaching cold front
for Weds afternoon into Weds night. Majority of models hold off on
any precipitation till after 18z Weds and even closer to 00z Thu.
Have toned down pops in the west to reflect these trends. A lot of
questions remain as to coverage and pops Wednesday night as a broken
line/area of showers and storms will develop across Illinois and
work into the area. NAM12 was put on the bottom of the pile being
way to moist as it has been lately and too aggressive on pops/precip.
Will keep mid to high chc pops as the front sweeps across. As for
severe threat...SPC has continued our NW/W areas in a marginal risk
for isolated hail and wind threat. Wind fields not overly impressive
with bulk shear 25 to maybe 30 knots with models varying on amount
of instability. Will keep downplaying setup at this point and see
what unfolds.

The front should clear most of the area by Thursday morning...but
may stall for a period and leave at least a lingering chance for a
shower or storm in the se. have trended a bit faster getting out but
otherwise no major change to previous forecast.

Upper level low will park itself northeast of the Great
Lakes...keeping the region in a below normal pattern for
temperatures and chances for showers /maybe thunder/ over the
weekend and again by middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will slowly slide
east this period. East southeast winds of 5 to 9 knots with VFR
conditions through the period.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Fisher

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