Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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702
FXUS63 KIWX 220542
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1242 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 900 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

As winds becoming light tonight areas of dense fog will develop.
The fog will burn off during the morning Wednesday, leading to
sunshine and record warmth. Rain chances will increase late
Thursday with some thunder possible at night and especially
Friday. Severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon as a
strong cold front sweeps across the area. Temperatures will be
above normal with highs around 70 Wednesday and in the 60s
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

Updated grids to reflect earlier fog formation and to address
formation along/over the coastal waters. Will continue to monitor
the observation for potential dense fog advisory inland areas.
Still trying to identify timing and extent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

Potent srn stream sw cutting off over the lower MS
valley will amplify sewd into the GOMEX late tonight. Inverted sfc
trough extending north into the lakes in the process of washing out
aiding in rapid decay of prior rainband.

Primary near term challenge is erosion of cloud plume overhead and
extent of temp dropoff overnight. Developing light return flow along
with current unseasonably high dewpoints would suggest MOS implied
dense fog development late tonight...esp north half on track given
thinning cloud canopy nw and will add mention.

Morning fog will lift out and burn off quickly Wed morning as
renewed low level thermal troughing builds in out of the central
plains. Given expected insolation and modest mixing...most locations
will flirt with 70...setting new record highs as SBN and FWA.
Current records are 66/1922 & 67/1922 respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

Unprecedented stretch of record warmth to continue through Fri as
deep layered cyclone develops across IA. Deep mixing within
unseasonably strong low level thermal trough should again promote
widespread mid to upper 60s both Thu and Fri which will again meet
or exceed prior records for the date at both SBN & FWA.

Primary uncertainty at this time range is ewd progression and timing
of strong/deep frontal zone. Robust downstream deep layer shear
impressive esp given the date yet severe threat will hinge on degree
of sfc based destabilization within the broad warm sector over the
OH valley and srn Great Lakes. Will follow general uptick in blended
pop guidance esp Fri aftn-Fri evening given good med range based
consensus.

Otherwise brief cold advection wing wraps east under remnant mid
level deformation zone Sat with a period of lake enhanced snowfall
likely. Daytime temps not particularly cold with any minimal
accumulations relegated to non-pavement surfaces and of little
concern.

Thereafter return flow develops in earnest Mon ahead of next
vigorous disturbance digging into the srn Rockies. Temps expected to
moderate to well above normal again by DY8 (Tue) if not sooner along
with substantial increase in rain chances as GOMEX opens wide.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1242 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Another difficult aviation forecast with tenuous near-surface
moisture under blanket of elevated clouds. KSBN starting to clear
out with a precipitous drop in visibilities. However, expect
conditions to be highly variable through the morning. Latest
guidance is much less aggressive with fog/low stratus formation
given relatively warm/dry surface conditions and some gradient
wind. Have therefore trended the TAF`s to a more optimistic
forecast but confidence is low. Latest forecast soundings do
suggest decent potential for MVFR stratocu through much of the day
and have adjusted TAF`s accordingly.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning for
     INZ003-004.

MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for MIZ077-078.

OH...NONE.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Lewis
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


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