Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 260435

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1235 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 911 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Showers are expected to spread mainly into northern portions of the
area tonight and Wednesday as a warm front lifts north into the
area. Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s over south central
lower Michigan to the mid 40s over west central Indiana. Highs
Wednesday will range from the mid 40s over south central lower
Michigan to around 60 over west central Indiana.


Issued at 911 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Band of showers across ne IL/nw IN in area of mid level fgen/theta-e
advection/moist convergence. Just T-.01 reported just west of our
cwa so far this eve but as forcing spreads east and strengthens overnight,
expect some light showers will work in and gradually expand in
coverage and increase in intensity as saturation lowers. Only
minor changes made to pop grids but did move up initial timing of
shower/sprinkle chances and bumped up pops slightly late tonight.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Cirrus clouds across much of the region late this afternoon ahead of
next short wave and near tightening baroclinic zone. Warm air
advection to increase overnight with further tightening of thermal
zone along with increasing low level jet and moisture advection.
Already seeing mid level returns on regional radar mosaic. Low level
condensation pressure deficits remain large much of the night while
mid levels moisten to saturation. Expect will eventually see light
rain showers develop late tonight across the northwest with
continuous saturation from top down through isentropic lift. Allowed
pops to gradually ramp up after 06z with likely in the far north
toward 12z. Nose of strong low level jet could push morning light
pcpn north of our area with a break before stronger frontal forcing
ahead of main synoptic short wave moves in mid to late afternoon.
Should see this rain into the far northwest mid afternoon with
steady progression eastward into the evening hours. Strong forcing
and weak instability support slight chance of thunder in the
southern third of the area. Another event with strong shear and weak
instability but surface low tracks right across the area. This has
proven interesting in several cases this year with some cases
producing isolated weak tornadoes and downbursts. Certainly not
advocating that in this event but worth noting given strong wind
profiles and low level shear.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

No strong deviations from the blend in this long term package.
Generally normal to above normal temps to continue into the
foreseeable future with no strong outbreak of cold air noted in the

High pressure to move back in Thursday in wake of departing low.
Will likely see lingering clouds along with some lake effect clouds
until ridge axis moves in. Next fast moving short wave and sfc
reflection approach Saturday. This system looks to track a little
further north with best moisture and dynamics north of the area.
Just some low chance pops now across the northern third. Pattern
repeats with high pressure back Sunday followed by another system
next week. Relatively mild Pacific air with these short waves and
cold air remains bottled up in Canada. Expect a strong warm surge
with deep mixing Saturday which should yield highs in the 70s over
most of the area and mid 70s in the far south. Back near normal
Sunday but warmth returns Monday and Tuesday with southwest flow
again developing. Temps back into the 60s...well above normal for
early November.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Easterly winds will pick up and VFR cigs will gradually lower
today in advance of an approaching warm front/sfc reflection.
Could see a few high based showers/sprinkles along leading
elevated theta-e gradient later this morning. Otherwise mainly
dry through mid afternoon before deeper saturation/lift brings
better rain chances and restrictions to mainly KSBN later this


LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley

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