Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 211950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
350 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Mild conditions will continue the rest of this weekend with lows
in the 50s tonight and highs Sunday near 75. Skies will become
cloudy Sunday followed by rain spreading across the area Sunday
night. Rain is expected Monday into Tuesday with heavy rain
possible. Much cooler weather is forecast with highs near 50
Tuesday and Wednesday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Some weak returns over Illinois this afternoon were just able to
generate a hundredth of an inch of rain in an extremely dry
environment per mesonet sites. Moisture in the lower levels will
begin to increase tonight; however, given the lack of forcing,
there is not much of a chance for measurable rainfall. Rain
chances will be increasing Sunday, especially later in the day
over west areas including northwest Indiana as a strong cold front
and upper level system approach. There is an outside chance for
thunder; however, left thunder out given virtually zero


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A very wet period is just ahead as a combination of systems moves
across the area during the first half of this upcoming week. The
first of two fronts will move across the region Sunday night. Expect
showers to spread across the area with this system Sunday night.
More rain will follow Monday as an upper level low ejects northeast
along the front and across the Ohio River.  For this package, favor
the ECMWF that has been consistent with a large area of deformation
rain Monday into Tuesday. The EC has also been consistent with
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches during this period. For now, kept
the heavy rain mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Much colder
air will spread across the Upper Great Lakes region Tuesday
accompanied by lake enhanced showers. Lowered highs Tuesday to
around 50 over most areas as 850 mb temps fall below 0C. There
should be a short break in the rain Thursday before even colder air
arrives this coming weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period. Winds out of
the south at 10 kts across the area with gusts over KSBN to 20
kts this afternoon. High cirrus this afternoon will gradually
lower as a system from the west approaches. Tomorrow morning at
KSBN winds will begin to gust to 20 kts and cloud base lowers as
the front nears.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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