Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 170730
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
330 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH NEAR 60 DEGREES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

PERSISTENT WAA IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AS AN UPPER
MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH DAMPENS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS WILL RESULT WITH MIXING DEPTHS DEEPER WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THETA-E RIDGE DROPS IN AND SFC WINDS VEER
SSW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT ACROSS NW IN/SW LOWER MI.

SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN LAKES WAVE
WILL GRADUALLY SINK INTO OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI ZONES LATER THIS
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE HERE
DURING THIS TIME AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH AN
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING RRQ UPPER JET
SUPPORT ENHANCES THE FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE. HOWEVER...LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING/RETURN AND EXPECTED NARROW BAND
PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A MID CHC POP AFTER 03Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO LONG TERM FORECAST. STILL LOOKS TO
BE JUST A COUPLE PERIODS WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY BEGINS WITH SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED WITH SLIGHT POOLING
ALONG FRONT AND MODEST MID LEVEL FORCING. THIS WARRANTS THE
CONTINUATION OF MID CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING WITH DECREASING POPS
IN AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THEN SETTLES INTO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. COOL EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED
SATURDAY BUT THIS TO BE OFFSET BY PLENTY OF SUN AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND UP A FEW DEGREES AND
HAVE FOLLOWED WITH EXPECTED HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S EAST TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTHWEST.

DEEPER MIXING ON EASTER SUNDAY ALONG WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF NEXT
SYSTEM PER LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A MILD AND DRY DAY IN
STORE. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 8C AND 10C WITH DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO MID 70S. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO
JUMP ON THIS BUT CONTINUED TO NUDGE TEMPS WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES.

DEEP CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE SLOWING
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN NOW LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM. MODELS STILL NOT SHOWING A GOOD GULF TAP BUT
DECENT SHORT WAVE DEPICTED AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WARRANTS POP
INCLUSION. TEMPS REMAIN SEASONAL FOR DAY 6 AND 7 BEHIND THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHERLY
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY...WITH WINDS RELAXING TONIGHT AS GRADIENT DIMINISHES NEAR
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PROBABILITY FOR SCT VFR DIURNAL CU
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/KG
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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