Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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398
FXUS63 KIWX 270514
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
114 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 114 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A frontal boundary will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in
the forecast this weekend into early next week. Highs each day
will reach the 80s, with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Low level theta-e gradient currently hovering over our southern
counties with surface high pressure and drier air anchored to the
north. A stray shower or storm is possible in our far south this
evening as a weak shortwave rotates around southeast CONUS ridge.
Any convection that does manage to enter our CWA will be in a
decaying state given loss of better moisture. Did carry some slight
chances in the far south but activity is diurnally driven and should
dissipate after sunset. Brief break in precip expected during the
early overnight but chances return by Saturday morning as isentropic
ascent and theta-e advection ramp up ahead of longwave trough
entering the Northern Plains. Best chance of rain will likely be
late tomorrow afternoon with the addition of some diurnal
instability. Still...forcing is fairly broad/weak and coverage is
expected to remain scattered. A few isolated strong storms may be
possible in our south but overall severe threat is low given limited
instability. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s under mostly cloudy
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Chance of rain will continue into Sunday as trough lifts over the
northern Great Lakes. Not much of a low level reflection this far
south but could be enough subtle convergence to touch off some
scattered showers and storms. Once again, risk of severe weather is
low with marginal lapse rates and relatively low shear values. Warm
and humid conditions will then persist through much of next week as
strong ridge builds over much of the CONUS. A few periodic showers
and storms may be possible given marginally unstable conditions but
lack of focused trigger should keep coverage in check. Temperatures
will remain on the warm side of climo but nothing unusual for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 114 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Shortwave over IA will lift northeast into the Western Great
Lakes today. Corridor of isentropic ascent on its eastern fringe
may clip KSBN with a few showers this morning. There is some
elevated instability but confidence in thunder remains too low for
a mention. Northward lifting warm front, some diurnal
heating/destabilization, and a separate weak upper level
disturbance lifting north from the western OH Valley may be enough
to generate iso-sct convection this afternoon across northern
Indiana. This activity could briefly impact both KSBN and KFWA
with a brief restriction/impact, though expect most of the
aftn/eve to remain VFR/dry.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...Steinwedel


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