Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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249
FXUS63 KLOT 162336
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
636 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...
209 PM CDT

Through Thursday...

Low pressure centered over the mid Missouri Valley this afternoon
will lift to northern Wisconsin by midday tomorrow resulting in
active weather across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana
through tomorrow. This afternoon, a warm front is draped east from
the low center across Iowa and northern Illinois where dew points
have risen into the low 70s for many areas. Mid level lapse rates
aren`t too terribly impressive this afternoon which is helping to
keep instability in check to some degree, but still expect
moderately unstable conditions of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE to
overspread the entire CWA through the afternoon. Broad ascent will
gradually overspread the area through the afternoon and evening
as upper ridge axis departs east with weak mid level height falls
begin moving overhead. An arcing band of showers have already
formed from near DVN southeast through PNT and expect intensity to
continue to increase this afternoon in response to increasing
forcing. 18Z SPC mesoanalysis indicates deep layer shear is less
than 30kt across the area which should remain the case through at
least the remainder of the afternoon, then slightly stronger winds
aloft will move overhead this evening and tonight. Overall,
severe threat is low through the rest of the afternoon given the
submarginal shear, but cannot rule out an isolated severe storm
or two this evening. Widespread severe weather is not expected.

Second area of thunderstorms is expected to develop over Missouri
and Kansas this evening in response to strengthening low level jet
ahead of a secondary low that forms near Kansas City. Storms
should track northeast into central and parts of northern Illinois
late this evening and overnight. Many of the high-res models have
trended farther south with overnight convection and have lowered
PoPs some in response. If trends continue to hold, PoPs may need
to be lowered further. Southward trend seems reasonable given the
expected orientation and position of the LLJ with the best forcing
focused south of our CWA.

Through the day Thursday, surface low will move from northern WI
into the Upper Peninsula of MI while a trailing cold front sweeps
across northern Illinois. Depending on how quickly the area clears
tomorrow and destabilizes, there is some threat for thunderstorms
to redevelop along the front across the far eastern tier of
counties in northwest IN early tomorrow afternoon. If this
happens, there is some potential storms could be severe, but
chances appear best just east of the CWA.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.LONG TERM...
209 PM CDT

Thursday night through Wednesday...

We dry out Thursday night as the upper level trough axis rotates
through.  Slightly cooler and drier air moves in leading to a dry
day Friday. A secondary trough axis rotates through Friday night
through Saturday, and showers and storms may form in response to the
trough axis.  Models disagree on how widespread precip will be
Friday night. The ECMWF is the most bullish while the GFS and NAM
have precip focused south of I-80. Decided to keep a chance of
showers and storms across the forecast area.

The upper level pattern becomes more zonal over the weekend and heat
builds back into the area. Dry conditions are expected for the
beginning of next week, and we may see 90s Monday.

The next significant chance of precip arrives Tuesday with an upper
level wave and surface cold front. Cooler air and an expansive
region of high pressure move in behind the front for mid week.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...

636 pm...Forecast concerns include a chance of thunderstorms late
this evening/early overnight...mvfr cigs Thursday morning and
gusty westerly winds Thursday.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are developing across
northwest IL currently and this activity is expected to slowly
develop to the southeast as it lifts off to the northeast during
the evening hours. Included tempo thunder mention at rfd this
evening but confidence further east at the Chicago terminals is
low as this activity may be in a weakening phase as it arrives
late this evening. However...included vcts and will need to
monitor trends over the next few hours. Confidence is very low for
any additional precip from the predawn hours through Thursday
evening. There is a small chance of showers around daybreak...
early Thursday afternoon and again toward Thursday evening. Trends
will need to be monitored later in the forecast period for these
time periods.

Outside any wind shifts/outflows from thunderstorms this
evening...prevailing southeast winds are expected to slowly turn
more southerly by midnight and then south/southwesterly overnight.
Speeds are likely to increase into the 10-12kt range with some
higher gusts possible overnight. Model forecasts differ on how
strong low level winds will be overnight...but will need to
monitor for possible low level wind shear. Winds will turn
southwest Thursday morning and begin to gust then turn more
westerly Thursday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest gusts into
the 25-30kt range will be possible and these stronger winds may
persist into Thursday evening...with only a slow downward trend
after sunset.

Patchy mvfr cigs are possible this evening and with any precip
tonight. But more widespread low mvfr cigs are possible overnight
through sunrise...then begin to lift Thursday morning. Its
possible there may be some ifr cigs...likely across northwest IL
but overall confidence for cigs heights and how prevailing they
may become is low. cms

&&

.MARINE...
209 PM CDT

High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will reach New England
this evening. Meanwhile a low pressure system over Iowa will reach
the upper Midwest by Thursday morning and then move over the western
Great Lakes Thursday night. Winds will become southeast and increase
to 30 kt especially over the northern half of the lake tonight as
the low approaches the region.  Gusts to 30 kt are possible over the
northern half of the lake Thursday morning.  The low`s cold front
will swing across the lake Thursday evening/night, and winds will
become west to 30 kt behind it.

Winds will diminish and become northwest Friday, and high pressure
builds over the Great Lakes Saturday.  Winds will back to southwest
Saturday night into Sunday. Guidance then suggests a cold front will
slide down the lake Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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